Swing states will determine the nation’s next president, and an online prediction market shows Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are not as closely matched in these battleground states as some aggregator polls indicate.
Polymarket, a platform where users can place “yes” or “no” bets on the likelihood of world events, allows users to bet on the winner of each state in the presidential election, creating an election forecast.
Polymarket identified Pennsylvania as the closest swing state race, with Trump narrowly leading Harris, 51 percent to 49 percent, for the state’s 19 Electoral College votes. The total bet for the state’s winner exceeds $6.19 million, with the price of shares matching the percentage odds.
On the other hand, state aggregator polls currently show a small lead for Harris over Trump in the Keystone state. The New York Times’ aggregator has Harris at 49 percent and Trump at 48 percent. The Hill shows Harris with a slightly larger edge, at 49 percent to Trump’s 47.9 percent, while FiveThirtyEight reports a 1.3 percentage point lead for Harris, placing her at 48.1 percent compared to Trump’s 46.8 percent.
Newsweek reached out to Polymarket for comment via email on Friday afternoon.
US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris (R) shakes hands with former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during a presidential debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on…
US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris (R) shakes hands with former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during a presidential debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 10, 2024.
More
SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images
North Carolina is the second tightest race according to the online betting platform, with Trump leading by 10 percentage points, 55 percent to Harris’ 45 percent. The Tar Heel State’s bet is over $4.17 million.
State polls show a much tighter race, with The New York Times showing North Carolina in a complete deadlock with both candidates at 48 percent. FiveThirtyEight shows Trump with a 0.1 percentage point lead, at 47.5 percent Harris’ 47.4 percent, and the Hill shows Trump up with a larger half-percentage point lead, 48.4 percent to Harris’ 47.9 percent.
Earlier today, Polymarket posted on X, formerly Twitter, that “Harris just flipped Nevada.” FiveThirtyEight and The Hill previously showed Harris ahead of Trump in the state, with the latest lead by 0.6 percentage points and 1.2 percentage points, respectively. The Times’ has the state in a total tie with both Trump and Harris at 48 percent.
Michigan has the largest bet of any swing state on the platform, with $8.2 million wagered. The forecast strongly favors the state going blue, with 65 percent predicting a Harris victory, while 35 percent believe Trump will win.
Aggregate polls find the race much closer, with Harris taking a lead of around 1.2 percentage points to 3 percentage points, but none near the 30 percentage point lead predicted on Polymarket.
The platform’s national presidential forecast puts Harris barely above Trump at 51 percent to 49 percent. In a similar vein, earlier today, statistician Nate Silver released a new election forecast that shows Harris overtaking Trump for the first time since late August. It’s the third time that the candidates have flipped positions in his forecast, writing on X along with a graph of the model, “That sort of thing will happen a lot when you’re near 50/50. It’s a toss-up.”
For the popular vote, however, Polymarket’s bets heavily favor Harris, giving her a 77 percent chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 23 percent. However, The White House is won by whichever candidate gets 270 Electoral College votes, not whether they win the popular vote.
Follow Newsweek’s live blog for the latest updates on the election and Mark Robinson’s scandal in North Carolina.
Source link : http://www.bing.com/news/apiclick.aspx?ref=FexRss&aid=&tid=66ee02fc06f643b49af1e2fd46dc35eb&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Fkamala-harris-donald-trump-betting-odds-swing-states-1957244&c=4257993250091128295&mkt=en-us
Author :
Publish date : 2024-09-20 12:11:00
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source.