The 2024 Presidential Election Might Hinge On A Proposed Change In Nebraska

The News Guy

2 months ago

Topline

Republicans are making a final-hour push to change the way Nebraska allocates electoral votes in an attempt to increase former President Donald Trump’s chances of collecting all the state’s electoral college votes—a change that is giving Democrats nightmares, and could potentially tip the election in his favor.

Former President Donald Trump speaks at the Israeli American Council National Summit at the … [+] Washington Hilton on September 19, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

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Key Facts

Nebraska’s five Republican lawmakers in Congress sent a letter to Gov. Jim Pillen and State Legislature Speaker Sen. John Arch, both Republicans, urging them to switch to the winner-takes-all method.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., also met with Pillen and Republican state lawmakers in Nebraska on Wednesday to make the case on Trump’s behalf, multiple outlets reported.

As of now, the state awards two electoral votes to the winner of the state at large and awards the remaining three votes to the winner of the three House districts—one of which, covering the state’s largest city, Omaha, is historically Democratic.

The change could lead to a scenario where Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, should she carry the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but no other swing states, tie each other with 269 electoral votes.

That scenario would leave it up to the the GOP-controlled House, where Trump has the clear advantage, to choose the winner.

What To Watch For

Pillen has long-supported a makeover of the system and said this week he would be willing to call a special legislative session to make the change if he has commitments from all 33 Republican senators, the minimum needed to break the filibuster threshold. At least one, Sen. Mike McDonnell, who is from Omaha and switched his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican in April, said as recently as Thursday he’s against making the change, the Nebraska Examiner reported.

Tangent

Trump in April lauded Pillen’s endorsement of the change, calling it “very smart” in a Truth Social post. Lawmakers ran out of time to make the change in April before the legislative session ended.

It’s Too Late For Maine—the Other State With Proportional Votes—to Weigh In

Maine is the only other state that doles out electoral votes on a partially proportional basis. Harris is all but certain to win the historically blue state outright, while Trump is widely expected to win one rural congressional district, meaning that Maine could even the playing field by following suit with Nebraska if it does change its law. However it’s too late for Maine to change its law now, as Maine laws don’t take effect until 90 days after passage, a date that would come after the electoral college is scheduled to meet Dec. 17. There’s some speculation that Republicans revived their push to change the law this week after they knew the deadline in Maine had passed.

Key Background

Harris narrowly leads Trump nationally, but the two are locked in a razor-thin race in almost every swing state after Harris entered the race and erased Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden. Trump won all six states, except Nevada, in the 2016 election, and Biden won all six states in 2020.