Zinke and Tranel rematch in western Montana’s Western District House race

The News Guy

2 months ago

On a muggy August afternoon in the Flathead Valley — less than 24 hours after 8,000 people packed a rally for Republican U.S. Senate candidate Tim Sheehy headlined by former president and Republican candidate Donald Trump five hours away in Bozeman — 150 or so people comfortably spread out across a small section of the 2,500 available seats at Glacier Bank Park for an event with Republican firebrand Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio.

Jordan and his host, Rep. Ryan Zinke, emphasized the importance of sending Sheehy’s opponent, three-term Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester, into an early retirement and helping Trump win back the White House against Vice President Kamala Harris. Over the course of 90 minutes, both men served up plenty of Republican red meat on subjects from transgender athletes to securing the southern border to beating back the liberal “cancel culture mob.”

“Our vote will determine the fate of this country because this district will decide whether we keep the House and whether or not we send a SEAL to the Senate,” Zinke said, in reference to Sheehy’s time in the U.S. Navy. (The House currently features 220 Republican representatives and 211 Democrats. The Senate has 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.)

A casual observer might have thought the Sheehy campaign had produced the event in Kalispell. But the smattering of signs posted around the minor league baseball park were actually for Zinke, who barely referenced his own reelection bid during his remarks and never spoke the name of his opponent, Democrat Monica Tranel.

Two years ago, after the state got its second seat back following redistricting, Zinke beat Tranel in the race for the state’s western congressional seat — the first time Montanans had a chance to send a second representative to the U.S. House in 30 years. At the time, the Zinke-Tranel race was the biggest in the state, with political observers wondering what it might reveal about the then-new district, which features Democratic strongholds Bozeman and Missoula along with solidly Republican areas like the Flathead and Bitterroot valleys. After falling short to Zinke (who had the aura of incumbency after previously representing the state in the House between 2015 and 2017) by four percentage points, Tranel quickly decided to try again.

But while the candidates are the same in 2024, this year’s race is dramatically different thanks to the high-profile U.S. Senate race at the top of the Montana ticket.

“It’s really been under the radar,” said Robert Saldin, a political science professor at the University of Montana, of the western district House race. “That’s probably the reality of having one of the most important Senate races in the country.”

ROUND ONE

By now, Zinke and Tranel are both known commodities in Montana politics — particularly Zinke, who’s moved to the right the further his political career has taken him.

Zinke was born in Bozeman and raised in Whitefish, where he was a star high school athlete. He played football at the University of Oregon and graduated with a geology degree in 1984. Later he earned master’s degrees from National University and the University of San Diego. From 1986 until 2008 he served as a U.S. Navy SEAL, earning the rank of commander before retiring from active duty in 2008.

Rep. Ryan Zinke speaks during a rally in Kalispell on Aug. 10, 2024
Credit: Justin Franz / MTFP

In 2008 he was elected to the Montana Senate. As a Republican from left-leaning Whitefish, Zinke exhibited a moderate streak and was noted for driving a Prius to the Capitol in Helena. After serving two terms in the state Senate — and a stint running for lieutenant governor alongside gubernatorial candidate Neil Livingston in 2011 — Zinke ran for Congress and won in 2014. He was reelected in 2016, but weeks after the election he was tapped by President-elect Donald Trump to be Secretary of the Interior.

Zinke’s time in the Trump administration turned out to be tumultuous, resulting in numerous ethics investigations into his business dealings, travel, and policy decisions before he resigned in December 2018. After lying low for a few years, Zinke announced he would mount another run for Congress in Montana’s newly established western district. After emerging from a tight three-way primary in June 2022, Zinke went up against Tranel.

Like Zinke, who moved from moderate to MAGA across the course of his political career, Tranel also went through a transformation, from Republican to Democrat.

Tranel was born in Wyoming and grew up in eastern Montana. She graduated from Gonzaga University in 1988 before going to law school at Rutgers University. In the 1990s, she began rowing and competed in the 1996 and 2000 Olympic Games.

Housing and the western district House race

Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke and his Democratic challenger, Monica Tranel, don’t agree on much, but the two repeat rivals for western Montana’s seat in the U.S. House of Representatives agree that one issue that comes up frequently on the campaign trail is affordable and available housing, or the lack thereof, in western Montana. Here are their plans.

Along the way, Tranel began a legal career in telecommunications and energy, most notably taking on NorthWestern Energy, Montana’s main regulated utility. In the early 2000s, she was a staff attorney for the Montana Public Service Commission when she decided to run for a seat on the commission as a Republican. After losing that race, she went to work as a staffer for Republican U.S. Sen. Conrad Burns.

While having run and worked as a Republican might typically raise some Democratic eyebrows, Tranel has defended her affiliation with the GOP, noting that Burns, a former broadcaster, was heavily involved in telecommunications issues, and that in her view party affiliation mattered less at the time than it does now.

“When I grew up in eastern Montana, we were not about labels,” she said.

She had changed her affiliation by 2020, when she ran again for a seat on the PSC, this time as a Democrat. After falling short again, she threw her hat into the new western district House seat race in 2022.

‘WE RAN OUT OF TIME’

While Zinke beat Tranel by four points in 2022, the Democrat said she believes her campaign was building momentum in the final weeks of that race. As a result, she decided soon after the election to take another shot at the seat. She announced her intention to run again in July 2023 and ran unopposed in this year’s Democratic primary.

“It felt to me as if we had taken on this really high mountain and we almost got there, we just ran out of time,” she said. “We just didn’t have the money or the resources that Zinke had … But we had a lot of enthusiasm and volunteer support.”

“It’s really been under the radar. That’s probably the reality of having one of the most important Senate races in the country.”

Robert Saldin, political science professor, University of Montana

According to the Federal Election Commission, Tranel had raised $3.1 million through June 30 (the last quarter for which data is currently available) and had $2.1 million on hand. Zinke had raised more than $6.7 million and had more than $3.1 million on hand. Comparatively little outside money has been spent on the race, although the Your Community PAC has spent more than $228,000 in support of Tranel.

Since the primary, Tranel has been crisscrossing the district in a 2017 Toyota Sienna minivan that — when Montana Free Press interviewed her in Whitefish in late August — was approaching 200,000 miles on the odometer. On that day, Tranel spoke at a telecommunications conference before meeting with voters at a private home in Whitefish to talk about affordable housing. While Tranel has tried to focus her campaign on policy — especially surrounding the ongoing housing crisis — she’s spent plenty of time criticizing the incumbent. In particular, she’s zeroed in on the allegation that Zinke no longer lives in Montana full-time. (While Zinke said he’s only ever had a Montana driver’s license, his wife reported Santa Barbara, California, as her primary residence in 2022).

“I want to send Ryan back to Santa Barbara for good,” Tranel said.

Monica Tranel talks to voters about affordable housing in Whitefish on Aug. 20.
Credit: Justin Franz / MTFP

Tranel said there’s plenty of work for her to accomplish if voters decide to send her to Washington D.C. Among her stated priorities would be tackling rising housing costs by updating the tax code to disincentivize corporate ownership of multiple properties that are held as investments rather than as homes for people who live and work in local communities. In a housing plan published earlier this year, she also proposed finding ways to encourage the construction of mobile homes and so-called tiny homes, specifically by changing regulations regarding manufactured homes. She also vowed to fight corporate money in politics, work to expand broadband internet access in rural areas, and introduce the Blackfoot Clearwater Stewardship Act in the House.

Asked if she thought she could accomplish all of that as a freshman legislator, she noted that Jeannette Rankin was a new congresswoman in 1916 when she introduced what eventually became the 19th Amendment giving women the right to vote.

“There is a lot of work that can be done, and it’s waiting for someone to step in and carry it for Montana,” she said. “I’m not going there to make a name for myself in the bright lights.”

‘THIS ISN’T MY FIRST RODEO’

When Republicans regained control of the House of Representatives in 2023 for the first time in five years, there was little expectation they would get a lot done — such is the nature of a divided government. But even in light of those lowered expectations, the 118th Congress has become the least productive in modern history.

Zinke said much of the dysfunction in Congress over the last few years has been a result of the pandemic and less face time between members. He also blamed some members of Congress for being more interested in building their own brand than working together to pass legislation.

There was perhaps no better example of the 118th Congress’ dysfunction than the removal of Rep. Kevin McCarthy as speaker of the House in September 2023 by a group of hard-right Republicans, including eastern district Rep. Matt Rosendale. Zinke supported McCarthy and called his removal and the weeks-long effort to replace him “an unfortunate distraction.”

But looking back at his current term in Congress, Zinke said it wasn’t all bad.

The divergent energy visions of Montana’s U.S. House candidates

U.S. House candidates Ryan Zinke and Monica Tranel have both worked on energy issues on public and private payrolls. Zinke, a Republican, underscores the importance of “American energy independence” and emphasizes the role of fossil fuels in that vision. Tranel, a Democrat, prioritizes a transition to clean energy that “has to start quickly and accelerate.”

“The House did not reach its full potential on a lot of things,” Zinke told MTFP. “But I do think Montana did well.”

Zinke said he is particularly proud of his involvement in securing more than $31.5 million in funding for projects across the district, including a community center on the Blackfeet Reservation, emergency radio and communications technology in Flathead and Glacier counties, and numerous infrastructure projects across the region.

Looking ahead to the 119th Congress, Zinke said he’s hopeful it will be more productive. He believes that can happen if Republicans keep the House and take the Senate and the White House. If that happens, there will be pressure to deliver “because people are tired of the gridlock,” he said.

While Zinke’s August campaign event in Kalispell made no reference to his opponent, he said he’s not taking anything for granted.

“Montana’s first district is not an easy ride,” he said, “but this isn’t my first rodeo.”

One point of contention between the candidates has been short-term rentals, which have grown in popularity in western Montana in recent years. The Tranel campaign recently released an ad showing their candidate inside a short-term rental owned by Zinke in Whitefish. In the ad, Tranel calls Zinke a “housing profiteer” and blames him for exacerbating the housing crisis.

In an interview with MTFP, Zinke defended his property, noting that the Airbnb is part of a well-known resort development in Whitefish.

“That was an invasion of privacy,” Zinke said, clearly perturbed about the ad.

The Zinke campaign has also noted that Tranel has herself profited from the short-term rental market. As recently as 2022 she owned between $10,000 and $50,000 worth of stock in Airbnb. Current financial disclosures show that Tranel did not report owning Airbnb stock during the current campaign cycle.

But the campaign hasn’t been all about housing. The first major ad from the Zinke campaign alleged that Tranel supports transgender women competing in women’s sports, a claim based on a Fox News report earlier this year. Tranel later said it was misleading.

“Men should compete against men and women against women. And I have never said anything different,” Tranel told MTFP. “These culture war issues that he’s trying to throw out there, they just bounce from one to the next to see what will stick and what will divide. And I’m sick of that. I’m over that. And I think everybody in Montana is over that.”

THE FINAL PUSH

Saldin, the political science professor in Missoula, said that with less than two months until election day, it’s clear Zinke is the favorite. While political observers have suggested Democrats could win the western district with the right candidate (noting that Rob Quist’s House run vote count would have won the district in 2017, as would Kathleen Williams’ 2018 House run result), it seems as if House District 1 has not been immune to the state’s overall shift to the political right. And while Tranel has tried to remind voters about the scandals and investigations that led to Zinke’s resignation from the Trump administration in 2018, Saldin said if that angle of attack was going to make a major impact on the race, it probably would have made a more meaningful difference in 2022.

“Zinke has the power of incumbency, he’s got the name recognition, and he’s got an R by his name,” Saldin said.

Perhaps the one thing that could give the Tranel camp hope, Saldin said, is the fact that she’s running in the same cycle as Tester, whose get-out-the-vote efforts could also help Tranel.

An AARP poll released Sept. 5 showed Zinke leading Tranel 49% to 43% among all likely Montana voters — a wider margin than the final results of the 2022 race. While the poll had Tranel leading among independents by seven points, it also notes that Republicans still have an advantage in the district. The same poll showed no statewide race in which a Democrat was leading.

There is a wild card in the race: Libertarian candidate Dennis Hayes of Townsend. If elected, Hayes has promised to “cut spending everywhere in this communist government.” His campaign made news in June when it was revealed that he had been recruited by a shadowy group called Patriots Run Project, which purports to support hardcore conservative third-party candidates. While it’s unlikely Hayes will be going to Washington D.C. anytime soon, in the past some have suggested that Libertarian candidates have chipped away at Zinke’s support from the right. In Zinke’s 2022 win, Libertarian John Lamb drew 3.9% of the vote. Lamb was able to draw more attention in that race through his participation in a series of candidate forms. While Hayes has answered candidate surveys, he’s done little else to campaign this year and doesn’t have a website.

Two years ago, Montana’s newly drawn western district was a blank canvas that some political observers believed was reasonably within reach of either party. As a result, the 2022 race was considerably more intense for the candidates, with a bigger primary, more media attention, and more attacks. There were also multiple debates and candidate forms — some of which Zinke declined to attend. While Tranel has offered to debate Zinke multiple times and in multiple venues in 2024, thus far the incumbent has not taken her up on the offer.

But with a high-profile Senate race sucking up much of the oxygen in Montana politics, there may be few repercussions for flying under the radar. The race for Montana’s western House seat feels much different than last time, and that feeling isn’t lost on the incumbent looking to keep his job.

“It is kinda nice not being at the top of the ticket,” Zinke said.