The Big Ten expanded with matchups like this in mind: No. 11 USC and No. 18 Michigan, two of college football’s most storied programs, meeting under the banner of a new coast-to-coast conference.
It’s fitting that USC’s debut in its new league comes against Michigan, the Big Ten standard-bearer for the past three seasons. The Wolverines embodied old-school Big Ten physicality while winning three consecutive conference championships and the 2023 national championship. USC under Lincoln Riley has been known for explosive offenses and porous defenses, though the latter could be changing. For now, there’s no better representation of the Big Ten’s blue bloods versus the newcomers from the West Coast.
USC looked Big Ten-ready in beating LSU in Week 1 while Michigan looked like a team nursing a national championship hangover in a Week 2 loss to Texas. The Wolverines’ early season struggles have taken some of the luster off one of the most anticipated matchups on the Big Ten schedule, but this is still a game between two proud programs that are now conference opponents.
“I think you always have to have a healthy respect for any opponent, but I mean, especially somebody that just came off a national championship,” USC edge rusher Jamil Muhammad said. “Whether they lost everybody, whether they’re having quote-unquote struggles scoring, whether they suck or whatever people say … at the end of the day, last time I checked, we didn’t win a national championship, they did.”
Conference play starts this week!#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/xQM9plEaxO
— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) September 16, 2024
The matchup
One of these teams looks like a legitimate contender for the College Football Playoff. The other looks like a team that could get exposed as the Big Ten schedule intensifies. That’s more or less what people expected in the preseason, except the roles have been reversed. USC is the team getting early CFP buzz, and Michigan is the team trending toward middle-of-the-pack status in the Big Ten.
One game is all it takes to change that perception. USC beat an LSU team that might not be as good as everybody thought; Michigan lost to a Texas team now ranked No. 1. There’s plenty of time for each team to conform to preseason expectations. But right now, these are two teams trending in opposite directions.
The two defensive coordinators in this game, Wink Martindale and D’Anton Lynn, worked together for a year on the staff of the Baltimore Ravens. USC’s defense has made big strides in its first two games under Lynn, who came to USC from crosstown rival UCLA. Michigan’s defense hasn’t matched the high standards of previous seasons in its first three games under Martindale. That’s an intriguing subplot, but the big question is whether Michigan’s offense, led by a new starting quarterback in Alex Orji, can score enough points to hang with the Trojans.
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OL Mason Murphy: The Trojans offensive line did just enough against LSU to pull out the victory, but Michigan’s defensive front might be the stiffest test USC faces this season. The right side of the offensive line is one of the lingering question marks on the roster. Right guard Alani Noa and Murphy, the starting right tackle, will have to play clean, sound football for the Trojans. LSU often tried to put Murphy in conflict by sending multiple rushers his way and forcing him to choose which one to block. We’ll see if Martindale tries to do the same.
LB Eric Gentry: If Michigan takes a run-heavy approach this week, it makes sense for USC to put three linebackers on the field. Gentry’s build is particularly unique — 6 feet 6, 215 pounds — for a linebacker. That length creates problems in passing lanes, but most offenses want to see how his frame holds up against the run. Gentry has been a disruptive presence through two games and will have to be impactful against the Wolverines rushing attack if USC’s defense is going to hold up.
WR Zachariah Branch: Branch is the most electric player on USC’s roster and is capable of tearing off a big play at any moment, whether as a kick returner, punt returner or receiver. Branch had had a couple of prime opportunities to score a touchdown the past two games — on a kick return against LSU and a red zone catch against Utah State — but came up empty both times. USC is still waiting for him to deliver a defining big play this season. Could it come Saturday?
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QB Alex Orji: All eyes will be on Orji as he takes over at quarterback and tries to give Michigan’s offense a fresh start. Expect a heavy dose of quarterback runs, but Orji will also need to show that he can throw the ball and keep USC’s defense honest. Given Michigan’s well-documented issues in pass protection, the X-factor is Orji’s ability to scramble and make something positive happen when a play breaks down.
CB Jyaire Hill: Texas had success going after Hill, which allowed the Longhorns to avoid Will Johnson’s side of the field. Will USC have a similar plan of attack? Michigan is sticking with Hill despite the growing pains, but Albany transfer Aamir Hall could be an option if Hill struggles.
TE Marlin Klein: Colston Loveland’s status is up in the air after he left last week’s game with an apparent shoulder injury. Coach Sherrone Moore said Loveland’s injury wasn’t as severe as it first appeared. Even if Loveland does play, Klein could be in line for a bigger role after catching three passes for 43 yards last week.
What USC needs to do
Stop the run and force Orji into passing situations. USC has looked improved against the run through two games, but LSU and Utah State’s rushing offenses are nothing special. Running the ball is core to Michigan’s offensive identity, even more so now that Orji is the quarterback. This will be the first real challenge for the Trojans defense in that regard and it’ll be key to determining how this game goes.
What Michigan needs to do
First, Michigan needs to protect the ball. The Wolverines have a turnover margin of minus-4, which is tied for 118th in the FBS. Last year, they were No. 1 with a margin of plus-19. Defensively, Michigan needs to get pressure on Miller Moss and get off the field on third down. The Wolverines struggled in those areas against Texas, but edge rushers Josaiah Stewart and Derrick Moore could have more success against the less experienced offensive line of USC.
CFP implications
The Athletic’s Austin Mock projects USC as the No. 10 seed with a 69 percent chance of making the CFP. The Trojans’ odds would climb to 77.2 percent with a win and fall to 52.9 percent with a loss.
The Athletic’s model gives Michigan a 2 percent chance to make the CFP and projects its record at 7-5. The outcome of Saturday’s game won’t change the picture dramatically for the Wolverines, as their CFP odds would climb to 3 percent with a win and fall to 0.4 percent with a loss.
Bottom line: USC, which doesn’t play Oregon or Ohio State, could lose Saturday and still have a strong chance to make the CFP. Michigan’s already slim CFP odds would all but disappear if the Wolverines lose.
Predictions
USC 24, Michigan 16. Waltzing into Ann Arbor and beating Michigan in the Big House would be quite a Big Ten debut for Riley and the Trojans. The rush to write off the Wolverines feels a tiny bit premature, but it’s feeling less so by the day. It won’t be a shock if Orji gives Michigan an early spark, but once the Trojans adjust, they should be able to keep Michigan’s offense in check and hit enough big plays to win a relatively low-scoring game. — Meek
USC 21, Michigan 17. Riley and USC’s players have been pretty complimentary of Michigan throughout the past weeks even though the Wolverines have put some vulnerabilities on film. This will still be a pretty challenging game for the Trojans, and don’t overlook that this is the first road start for Moss and the first true road test for this offensive line. Orji could present some unique challenges for USC’s defense, but I trust that Moss and the Trojans skill players can score more reliably than the Wolverines can right now. — Morales
(Photos of Alex Orji, Lake McCree: Mark J. Rebilas, Jonathan Hui / Imagn Images)
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Publish date : 2024-09-19 22:00:00
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