How do you describe what the Vikings have accomplished in two games?
You could show video clips of the locker room chanting the lyrics to 50 Cent’s “Many Men.” You could press play on play-by-play voice Paul Allen’s call of Sam Darnold’s 97-yard throw to Justin Jefferson. Or you could pluck five intricate numbers, and dig deep into their meaning.
Here, we chose option No. 3. Here are five magic numbers, why they’re important and what they tell us about the Vikings’ 2-0 start:
Magic number: 27
This is the number of snaps per game that the Vikings use a four-man pass rush.
Why is this notable? Well, there are two reasons: First, this is double the four-man pass rush snaps the Vikings utilized last season. Second, deploying a four-man pass rush allows you to play with seven defenders in coverage. This is ideal, if you can get away with it. Last year’s Vikings could not.
The issue in 2023 was the lack of pressure. The Vikings only generated pressure on 28.9 percent of snaps in 2023 when they rushed four men, according to TruMedia, which ranked 27th in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks were mostly unaffected, making it less stressful to identify open receivers in Minnesota’s zones. So, defensive coordinator Brian Flores blitzed aggressively, using a six-man pass rush more than double any other team.
This year, the Vikings rank No. 2 in the NFL in pressure rate when rushing four men (44.4 percent). In turn, their usage of six-man pressures has fallen dramatically because, well, why would you remove defenders from occupying space on the back end if you do not have to? This evolution in strategy is a testament to the changes in personnel. Flores, the Vikings’ coaching staff and personnel department collaborated on a plan to spend available cap space this spring before free agency. Those conversations resulted in additions such as Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, Jihad Ward and Blake Cashman. Minnesota also drafted Dallas Turner.
Collectively, they have caused anxiety for quarterbacks, but not at the expense of what’s possible in coverage. That’s why the Vikings currently rank second in the NFL in defense, according to DVOA, a statistic that accounts for strength of schedule.
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Magic number: 4.34
This is the average yardage between the Vikings’ wide-receiver target and defender at the time of catch, according to Next Gen Stats. A bit of a peculiar metric, certainly, but one that speaks to a few happenings offensively: Well-schemed passing concepts, exceptional route-running and a quarterback creating an advantage as a byproduct of those two facets.
For perspective, the Vikings rank fourth in the NFL in this category. Their mark is almost a yard more than last year. The reasons for this definitely vary. Tight end T.J. Hockenson feasts on competitive catches in traffic. He is still rehabbing his torn ACL, so the Vikings have altered their offense to find other options in different ways.
Facing the New York Giants’ secondary also boosts this number, but fixating on that avoids the obvious: The Vikings’ staff has generated open throwing lanes; the receivers have added their own flair to create them; and Darnold has found them once they’ve emerged open.
How this figure moves throughout the season will be interesting, especially as wide receiver Jordan Addison and Hockenson integrate back into the lineup. The same goes for the defensive side, too. The Vikings’ defense is preventing about a half-yard of separation more than last season, which matches the eye test.
Magic number: 0
We began with the complex. Now, we’re transitioning to the simple. This is the Vikings’ turnover margin through two games. It’s not other-worldly. The Pittsburgh Steelers lead the NFL at plus-5. But it’s a massive jump from this time a year ago.
Entering Week 3 of the 2023 season, the Vikings were minus-6 in the turnover margin, two lower than any other NFL team. While that almost seems impossible, it makes sense in retrospect: Minnesota made it seem like every football had been coated in oil.
If you have paid attention to football for any elongated period, you know how essential this statistic is to winning. Through two weeks, teams that have broken even or won the turnover margin have won 69 percent of their games. Head coach Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings teams are 19-0 the last three seasons when they have broken even or won the turnover margin. The NFL average during these three years is 66 percent.
One major positive thus far is the defense’s ability to turn the football over. Both the Giants and 49ers turned the football over twice in the Vikings’ first two games. Only three NFL defenses have forced more turnovers over this span. This improvement matches with the first priority of the Vikings’ internal philosophy this offseason: Be all about the ball.
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Magic number: 100
Famed coach Bill Belichick is seemingly everywhere in the media these days. In many of his appearances, he has iterated one coaching belief: Scoring points requires explosive plays and conversions through the red zone. This number is the percentage of Vikings scores when they’ve reached the red zone this year.
Minnesota has converted points in all five drives that reached the red zone. Three became touchdowns, and two finished as field goals. Last year, the Vikings scored on 80.4 percent of their red zone trips, a below average mark that was better than only two other teams. Minnesota noticed these struggles this offseason, and the staff vowed to perform better.
Having running back Aaron Jones helps. He bounced an outside run in Week 1. Jefferson snagged a contested catch against the Giants, too. Last week, the Vikings staff beautifully designed a play-action pass to receiver Jalen Nailor. Returning to Belichick’s comment, explosiveness has never been a problem for the Vikings offense in O’Connell’s time as the head coach.
Minnesota ranks eighth in the NFL in explosive play rate since 2022. Enhancing its red-zone capability would strengthen the overall offensive output.
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Vikings’ rushing attack showing massive growth behind Aaron Jones, Ty Chandler
Magic number: 9.3
This is the percentage of Vikings runs resulting in zero or negative yards. It’s a massive drop from 2023 and an even more sizable decrease from 2022. Suffice it to say: The Vikings are staying on schedule as well as they have in O’Connell’s time as the head coach when they’ve run the football this year.
The success is multifaceted and can be attributed to running back explosiveness, effective blocking and a more tied-together run-pass approach. Minnesota ranks third in the NFL in this percentage. Two years ago, the Vikings finished 32nd.
Growth on the ground has smoothed the process of watching O’Connell’s offense. It feels more fluid, more rhythmic, less boom or bust. It has also spurred a second down explosion. No team in the NFL averages more yards than the Vikings do right now in yards per play on second down (7.8).
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(Photo of Justin Jefferson: Adam Bettcher / Getty Images)
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Publish date : 2024-09-18 22:03:00
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