Oklahoma voters wondering if Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump will visit the Sooner State before the November presidential election should probably keep wishing.
Because more than likely, it won’t happen.
Even though the 2024 presidential election is now at full speed, state voters probably won’t see a visit from either candidate or their vice presidential picks because Oklahoma isn’t a draw this cycle, political observers say.
The state is already considered a bright red spot, and low numbers of residents go to the polls, so national campaigns will focus on other states where visits will have more impact, consultant and pollster Pat McFerron said.
“Oklahoma’s November election doesn’t matter,” he said, referencing the presidential race. “And even if it were to matter, that would mean the rest of the nation has changed, and the race is over.”
Oklahoma’s small media market and number of Electoral College votes also make it a less than competitive area.
“I really don’t see a reason why either one (Republican or Democratic candidate) would come here,” McFerron said. “If it were a national popular vote, maybe. But since it’s the Electoral College it doesn’t work.”
History supports McFerron’s prediction. Oklahoma has, for years, been a low priority for national campaigns. The state has reliably voted Republican for decades. National campaigns, seeking to get the biggest return for their investment, will skip a state like Oklahoma and focus on one — such as Wisconsin — where the entire state remains in play.
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“Money is a factor,” McFerron said. “At the same time, because neither side participates in Oklahoma (because the state is already perceived as red), voter turnout remains low.”
Records show the state is currently 50th in voter turnout, he said.
What would prompt Trump to visit Oklahoma on the campaign trail?
While McFerron remains skeptical that anyone on the presidential ticket will campaign in the Sooner State, former chair of the Oklahoma Republican Party Pam Pollard said she remains hopeful that either Trump or Vance will visit for a public rally. But she acknowledged that may not happen.
Like McFerron, Pollard pointed to the campaign map as a basis for candidate visits. Georgia and Iowa are looking better for the GOP, she said, but the race remains tight.
“We as Oklahomans also have to think about the big picture,” Pollard said. “If President Trump comes here instead of going to Nevada, if that rally in Nevada could have put him over the top in the race, then I’m willing to be a good American and a sad Oklahoman and realize that President Trump may not come here.”
Of course, fundraising is a different matter.
While the need for Republicans to campaign in the Sooner State might not be as high as other states, traveling here could become more useful when money is at stake. That happened in July, shortly after Trump chose J.D. Vance as his running mate. Vance came to Oklahoma for a private fundraiser.
“If there’s a chance to raise big money at an event then candidates will come to Oklahoma,” McFerron said.
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Relatives of presidential candidates might make an appearance in Oklahoma
Former Attorney General Drew Edmondson — a Democrat — agreed to a point.
Edmondson said he didn’t expect a high-profile candidate like Harris or Trump to come to Oklahoma but, he added, it’s possible that someone with close ties to a candidate might make a visit.
“My guess would be that a highest profile visit [we] would get would be from a Democratic spouse,” Edmondson said. “I don’t think Trump’s wife does anything, and I don’t know if J.D. Vance’s wife is doing anything. But I think the second gentleman and Walz’s wife may be more active.”
Edmondson pointed to the visit of Jill Biden four years ago as an example.
Still, he said, most campaign strategists will focus their energies in states that are in play. Although a recent poll showed Trump and Harris are tied among voters in Oklahoma County, Trump still has a virtual lock on the statewide win.
“There’s two reasons to visit,” Edmondson said. “One is carrying the state. and the other is to raise a whole lot of money. And neither one is going to happen on the Democratic side. On the Republican side, they’re gonna get it anyway so why come?”
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Publish date : 2024-09-17 13:00:00
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