Latest polls show Harris surging ahead of Trump. Here’s what we know.
The latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll shows Kamala Harris surging ahead of Donald Trump. But why? Here is what we know now.
Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris narrowly leads former President Donald Trump in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania and two of the state’s key bellwether counties, according to a trio of exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University polls taken after last week’s debate.
The polls were conducted in the days after the lone debate between Harris and Trump in the 2024 campaign. After Harris put Trump on defense throughout the 90-minute exchange, even many Republicans acknowledged the vice president outperformed Trump in the debate. Trump last week said he will not take part in another debate against Harris.
In Northwest Pennsylvania, Harris leads Trump 48%-44% in Erie County, where Biden in 2020 won 50%-49% and Trump in 2016 won 49%-47%.
President Joe Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 over Trump by 1.2 percentage points, while Trump carried the commonwealth by less than 1 percentage point over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Along with Harris’ statewide edge over Trump, she leads in Erie and Northampton counties – two bellwether counties that have historically predicted who carries the state – separate USA TODAY/Suffolk University polls of both found.
More: Kamala Harris needs Latinos to win these swing states. They say she has more to do
Harris also leads in Northampton County poll
Harris leads in Northampton County, which includes the cities of Easton and Bethlehem in East Pennsylvania, 50%-45% over Trump. Biden carried Northampton 50%-49% in the 2020 election. Trump carried Northampton 50%-46% over Clinton in 2016.
Three hundred likely voters were surveyed in both county polls, which have margins of error of 5.7 percentage points.
Helping drive Harris’ advantage in Northampton – which boasts a Latino population that is 13% of the county’s population – is the vice president’s 60%-25% lead among Latino voters in the county. Yet the common denominator in both counties and Pennsylvania as a whole is Harris’ dominance with female voters.
In Northampton, Harris leads female voters 55%-37% – an 18-point advantage that is greater than Harris’ 17-point statewide lead with female voters. In Erie, Harris leads female voters by an even wider 55%-35% margin. Trump leads among male voters in Northampton 53%-44% and male voters in Erie 52%-42%.
“This is female-gender advantage on steroids,” said Dave Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “In all three data sets, the women margin is around almost twice around Trump’s edge among men.”
With 50 days until Election Day, Harris leads Trump, the Republican nominee, 49%-46% in Pennsylvania, a statewide poll of 500 likely Pennsylvania voters conducted from Wednesday to Sunday found. The results are within the poll’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
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Publish date : 2024-09-17 02:39:00
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