2024 continues to be a mirror image of 2023 for the LSU Tigers football team.
Both years opened with a neutral site loss on Sunday night to a big-name opponent. Both seasons followed that up with a Week 2 win over a Louisiana FCS school. Now, Week 3 features an SEC road trip against a team projected to finish near the bottom of the SEC.
Last year it was Mississippi State. This year, LSU travels further east to face South Carolina.
According to BetMGM, LSU is a seven-point favorite. A smaller line than the double-digit look-ahead spread posted in the summer. The loss to USC and first-half struggles against Nicholls brought the skeptics out, but head coach Brian Kelly reiterated his confidence in this team.
South Carolina shouldn’t be a measuring stick for LSU, but the Tigers need to show they can take care of business on the road against a less talented squad.
Here’s what to watch for when LSU and South Carolina kick off on Saturday.
When LSU has the ball
When LSU’s on offense, I’ll be looking for two things:
Can LSU run the ball?
Can LSU generate explosive plays?
The fact that we have to ask the first question is a surprise. LSU’s offensive line was projected to be one of the nation’s best, and while it has held up in pass protection, LSU is yet to get a consistent push on the ground.
LSU ranks 112th nationally in rushing success rate and 89th with 3.93 yards per carry. Both marks are below the gaudy numbers posted last year and short of what’s expected of a team with this much talent.
The Tigers miss Jayden Daniels’ dual-threat ability and lack a feature running back, but with two first-round tackles and veteran guards, the offensive line should be creating lanes.
South Carolina’s defensive front is strong, but it’s better at rushing the passer than it is at stopping the run. The Gamecocks stuff rate is in the 23rd percentile and their EPA/rush allowed is slightly above average.
If LSU can’t run the ball on Saturday, it signals concern for the remainder of 2024.
As for the second question, LSU needs to be more explosive. The Tigers are one or two more explosive plays from being 2-0. LSU struggled in the red zone vs. USC and the easiest way to fix that is scoring before you even get there.
LSU’s offense made its living on deep shots to Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. in 2023. I understand the personnel is different, but Nussmeier has the arm to push it down the field.
With a defense that’s still finding its way, LSU needs to be explosive enough to keep up in a potential shootout.
Following the USC loss, Kelly said LSU needs to keep Kyren Lacy involved throughout the game. We’ll see if OC Joe Sloan dials anything up for his top receiver on Saturday.
When South Carolina has the ball
That Week 3 game against Mississippi State was LSU’s best defensive performance in 2023. The Tigers took advantage of a defense that wasn’t as talented.
It didn’t mean much the rest of the year as the unit regressed back to what it was in the Week 1 loss to Florida State, but it showed LSU had the pieces to bully a less talented team.
LSU hopes for a similar result tomorrow.
South Carolina’s offense struggled last year and then lost Spencer Rattler and Xavier Leggette — its top two players. Rebuilding a unit is hard, especially when you lose the stars.
LaNorris Sellers took over for Rattler and is yet to show anything particularly impressive. The offensive line is improved, but they didn’t have to do much to cross the low bar set in 2023. When it comes to the pass catchers, South Carolina is still searching for the next WR1 after Leggette’s departure.
This is the rare opportunity for the LSU defense to face an SEC offense with an equal amount of questions and concerns.
I’ll be keeping an eye on how LSU manages its personnel. Kelly said that linebacker Whit Weeks is too good to keep off the field and we could see Major Burns play some safety, allowing LSU to get three backers on the field.
On the backend, Sage Ryan is expected to play safety, opening time for Zy Alexander and PJ Woodland at corner.
LSU needs to ensure this isn’t the game South Carolina figures it out. The Tigers have the talent and speed to get stops here.
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Publish date : 2024-09-13 06:20:00
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