The Auburn Tigers (1-1) go to battle against Mountain West opponent New Mexico (0-2) on Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Auburn comes into the matchup with about as many question marks as its had under head coach Hugh Freeze, while New Mexico is equally looking for answers after an 0-2 start to the 2024 season under first-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall.
Payton Thorne and the Auburn offense struggled mightily in week two against Cal, while the story for New Mexico has been centered around the Lobos putrid defense that has allowed nearly 100 points in two weeks. With vastly different play styles and team archetypes, this matchup, while intriguing, favors the Tigers heavily.
Auburn is currently favored by exactly 4 touchdowns on BetMGM, and ESPN FPI likes the Tigers chances of getting back of .500 as well. The system gives Hugh Freeze’s squad a 93.5% chance to right the ship and earn a victory on Saturday night at Jordan-Hare.
Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show New Mexico has a higher chance of dropping Auburn to 1-2 than the experts believe? As always, we’ll start by analyzing the quarterbacks.
After lighting the world on fire in Auburn’s week one win against Alabama A&M, Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne put himself in the “hot seat” after a four-interception performance in week two against California. Head coach Hugh Freeze has continued to employ confidence in his senior quarterback, but a season-plus of inconsistent play has raised the concerns of most Tiger fans. On the season, Thorne has thrown for 487 yards, five touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. The former Spartan has also battled his way through 92 yards on the ground, adding 2 more scores with his legs.
As for New Mexico’s signal-caller, sophomore quarterback Devon Dampier is not the reason his team has two losses to open up the season. In fact, he is far, far, from it. The Tucson, Arizona native is coming off an electric 390 all-purpose yard and 5-touchdown performance against No. 18 ranked Arizona. On the season, Dampier has thrown for 432 yards, rushed for 164 more, and scored 7 total touchdowns. Dampier’s numbers are eerily similar to that of Payton Thore, but considering the sophomore has turned the ball over two less times against tougher competition in both games, he gets the slight edge.
Auburn’s true edge on the offensive side of the ball in games against smaller schools normally comes from the “big boys” up front in the trenches, but that is not the case against the Lobos. New Mexico’s entire starting offensive line features transfers with plenty of experience in college football. Tevin Shaw (Houston) and Baraka Beckett (UCLA) bring Power Four experience protecting Devon Dampier’s blindside, while right guard Richard Pearce (East Carolina) and right tackle Wallace Unamba (FAU) are both 320-plus pound run blockers on the other side.
Auburn’s starting offensive line still holds up well in a pound-for-pound breakdown, but it’s closer than a game with a 28-point spread would suggest. The Tigers get the slight edge due to the pure talent of sophomore center Connor Lew and guards Dillon Wade and Jeremiah Wright.
The Tigers’ real edge on offense comes in the skill player department, where Hugh Freeze’s recruiting and transfer portal prowess comes to fruition. Jarquez Hunter, Cam Coleman, Robert Lewis, KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Rivaldo Fairweather, Perry Thompson, or Malcolm Simmons would easily be the number one option on the Lobos offense. While New Mexico’s No. 1 receiver Luke Wysong is having himself a great start to the season (14 receptions, 224 yards, 1 touchdown), his numbers say more about Devon Dampier’s talent than his own.
At the end of the day, Auburn is favored by 4 touchdowns in Saturday’s game because of the grotesque gap on the defensive side of the ball. New Mexico’s defense allowed 35 points to an FCS program, albeit a good one, in week one. The Lobos then followed it up by showing virtually no resistance against a very good Arizona team in a “rivalry” game. If the Lobos defense was just average head coach Bronco Mendenhall would have at least his first win in the red and silver under his belt. Instead, he is coaching a defense that has allowed the third most points per game (48.00) in the entire FBS.
While Auburn’s defense has not received nearly the same amount of buzz it did a season ago, the unit is still lightyears ahead of New Mexico. The Tigers did surrender 21 points against Cal a week ago, but it could have been much worse considering the offense turned the ball over five times. Eugene Asante and the Auburn defense gave Payton Thorne’s offense every opportunity to win last weekend. They should do the same in week three.
After taking a look at the tale of the tape, it’s clear Auburn has an advantage in this contest, but it may be closer than most people believe. If Payton Thorne and the Tigers offense struggle to take advantage of a horrendous Lobos resistance, New Mexico can score enough to make this game interesting.
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Publish date : 2024-09-12 06:00:00
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