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Hello, friends. Happy debate day. I’d love to hear your real-time thoughts about the debate — drop me a line at onthetrail@deseretnews.com. (If you’re willing to let me include your comments in our debate coverage, include your full name, your party affiliation and your state.)
3 things to knowHarris and Trump meet tonight in Philadelphia for the first (or second?) presidential debate. It’s expected to draw huge viewership: “It’s almost certainly going to be the most-viewed single event this year, other than the Super Bowl,” one expert told me. Here, I break down what Donald Trump and Kamala Harris each need to do to win. Read my analysis here.Not only did Liz Cheneyendorse Harris, but her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, did, too. At present, Trump enjoys support from not a single living former Republican presidential or vice presidential nominee: Mike Pence, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, George W. Bush and Cheney have all said they will not vote for Trump or have not endorsed him. Read more here.Is the Harris honeymoon over? Her polling uptick — aided by a post-convention bump — seems to have plateaued, according to the latest NYT/Siena poll. Her biggest hurdle? A majority of voters think her presidency would be “much of the same” as the current Biden administration — even as Biden faces low favorability and widespread pessimism on the economy. Read more here.The big idea
I rewatched Kamala Harris’ last debate so you don’t have to
When Harris and Trump take the stage tonight, most Americans know what to expect from Trump. It’s his seventh presidential debate — his second this cycle, plus two in 2020 and three in 2016.
Harris, however, is more of a wild card. She’s participated in her fair share of debates — against state attorney general candidates in California, in her run for the U.S. Senate, in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary — but she has never participated in a presidential general election debate. The closest she’s come is a 2020 vice presidential debate against Mike Pence in Salt Lake City.
I rewatched that debate yesterday, so you don’t have to. Here’s what I learned.
The event was an unusual affair: due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the two candidates’ podiums were spaced far away and divided by plexiglass barriers, and the limited audience members all wore face masks. There were questions about whether the debate would even happen, but the University of Utah — which played host — worked to make accommodations. “It was certainly a pandemic-informed setup,” Aaron Kall, the director of debate at the University of Michigan, told me. (Kall attended in person in 2020.)
Upon rewatching the footage, though, much of that is hardly noticeable. The debate was largely respectful, especially when compared to the Biden-Trump debate weeks earlier. Pence, true to form, was on message and unflappable; Harris, a former prosecutor, showed her talent in litigating the Trump-Pence administration’s record on COVID-19. Harris looked every bit the part of a former attorney general.
In the annals of social media, the most memorable moment of the evening — thanks to the proliferation of post-mortem memes — was the fly on Pence’s head. But the most impressive moment, upon rewatching, is what happened long before that moment, and again shortly after. Harris was midway through a response when Pence interrupted her. “Mr. Vice President, I’m speaking,” she said, forcefully. Later, Pence again attempted to rebut her mid-sentence: “Mr. Vice President,” she repeated, “I’m speaking.” The interaction occurred once again later in the debate, after the fly incident.
It was a forceful and effective way to command the debate, after the moderator, USA Today’s Susan Page, seemed to struggle to keep both participants in line. “I thought Kamala had more control of the debate than Susan Page did,” Scott Howell, the former Utah Senate minority leader who hosted Harris in Salt Lake City, told me. (Page admitted as much this week: Harris tactic caused Pence to “finally” stop “speaking out of turn,” she wrote. “It’s just possible she was more successful than I was in enforcing that rule.”)
Harris’ performance was not blemish-free, however. She largely dismissed several questions Page asked, including a query about whether Harris had discussed “safeguards or procedures” regarding “presidential disability” with Biden. When asked if she would take the COVID-19 vaccine if it were approved, she said she would if Dr. Anthony Fauci told her to, but not if Trump said to — causing Pence to call out her hypocrisy after she’d accused him of politicizing the pandemic.
In the end, it was a successful outing for Harris: most viewers said Harris won the debate, and her favorability ratings ticked up afterward, per Ipsos. When viewers were surveyed before and after watching the debate, they largely seemed to view Harris as more trustworthy, smart, likable and competent afterward, according to research by Ben Warner, director of the University of Missouri’s Political Communication Institute. “She would love to have another performance like she had in 2020,” Warner said.
Will she? Her strongest moments in that 2020 debate — cutting of Pence’s interruptions — won’t be replicated, as the Harris campaign lost a backstage battle to keep Harris’ and Trump’s microphones unmuted throughout the duration of the debate.
But Harris will have one thing she didn’t get in Salt Lake City: a morning coffee. In Salt Lake City, Harris lodged in an upscale City Creek condo. Her first morning there, Howell, the Utah Democrat who arranged her lodgings, got a call. “There’s no coffee machine here,” Harris’ team said. “Can we go buy one?”
Poll pulseEarlier in the summer, much was made of Trump’s growing support among Black voters. That momentum seems to have been stifled by Harris’ entry into the race: according to a new Washington Post-Ipsos poll, more Black Americans say they will vote than earlier this year — and 82% say they’ll back Harris.A new New York Times/Siena College poll provides important context to tonight’s debate: 28% of likely voters say they need to know more about Harris, while only 9% say the same of Trump.What I’m reading
Jan. 6 is still being litigated, but many of the facts are not up for dispute: hundreds of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol, 140 police officers were injured, and many participants carried weapons. Over 950 individuals have been sentenced for their actions on that day. The Associated Press does great work here in laying out what we know from the 1,500 court cases across the country: The Cases of January 6th (Associated Press)
Trump’s ground game in key swing states is targeting individuals who don’t vote, Reuters reports here: In a risky ploy to beat Harris, Trump is targeting voters who don’t usually vote. It’s not the strategy that concerns insiders; it’s the manpower, as Trump’s paid staff and volunteer list is much shorter than elections past. Trump has scant voter turnout operation in swing states, GOP worries (Hugo Lowell, The Guardian)
Let’s say Harris wins in November. What happens to the Republican Party? Does it double down on MAGA and gear up for Trump 2028? Does one of Trump’s acolytes (Greene, Gaetz, et al) take the reins? Does Jeff Flake step in and redirect the party? An interesting thought experiment here, aided by an analogy of a salt lake that should’ve been the Great Salt Lake: The Salton Sea (Kevin Williamson, The Dispatch)
Bonus: Trump pledges to jail opponents, baselessly suggests election will be stolen from him (Amy Gardner, Colby Itkowitz and Mariana Alfaro, Washington Post)
See you on the trail.
Editor’s note: The Deseret News is committed to covering issues of substance in the 2024 presidential race from its unique perspective and editorial values. Our team of political reporters will bring you in-depth coverage of the most relevant news and information to help you make an informed decision. Find our complete coverage of the election here.
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Publish date : 2024-09-10 10:41:00
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