The News
Donald Trump’s success — or failure — on Nov. 5 could very well come down to the campaign’s ground game: And top members of the party are already whispering concerns, pointing fingers, and offering pushback as it relates to the effort.
The Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee are betting the race on an unconventional approach, opting to outsource much of their turnout operation to dozens of conservative groups like Turning Point Action, America First Works and the Elon Musk-backed America PAC.
The effort hasn’t been entirely smooth sailing, at least in the eyes of some members of the party: Multiple party leaders, former RNC members, and lawmakers have privately trashed what they see as a lack of a clear operation, and expressed concerns about how it could affect not just the fate of the presidential race, but downballot races as well. Ronna McDaniel, who was ousted from her position as RNC chair back in February amid a Trump campaign takeover, has also grumbled to allies that the party’s on-the-ground efforts are lacking. (McDaniel declined to comment.)
Some swing-state senators are also warning that Democrats are going to present a unique challenge this November after COVID hampered their usual turnout efforts in the prior cycle. North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, who shared a winning ballot with Trump in the Tarheel State in 2020, said the GOP’s organizational advantage might not be as great as it was four years ago and that the party has “got to be able to match up.”
“In North Carolina he’s going to have a reasonably good ground game,” Tillis said. “But what we’re seeing in North Carolina that we haven’t seen for a time, though, is a really well organized ground game by the Democrats.”
Behind the scenes, the concerns and criticisms are multifaceted. Some worry there’s a lack of a visible operation at this point in the race.
“I’m as plugged in as they get — and yet I don’t even know who my friends and family back home can contact for a yard sign or to knock doors in their precinct,” a Republican operative who votes in a swing state told Semafor.
Another Republican operative had questions about how outside groups are coordinating and whether data is being shared. And multiple people argued that the campaign has perhaps been over-focused on poll watchers as part of Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen, an effort driven by Trump and prioritized by Lara Trump and Michael Whatley, his allies heading up the RNC.
A third Republican strategist in a swing state said they’ve seen “no ground activity at all” and complained more typical volunteer work had been crowded out by “election integrity” efforts.
“They’re really only focused on recruiting folks to volunteer to be poll watchers,” the third Republican strategist said. “I mean, they do a lot of that shit. But what’s the point of watching the vote if you haven’t turned out the vote?”
Turning Point Action, one of the more high profile groups involved in helping turn out the vote, has touted its efforts in the field and expressed pride in their initiatives. Founded by Charlie Kirk, it’s the political advocacy arm of Turning Point USA, a group that’s been controversial within some party circles for its flamboyant culture-war emphasis. One veteran GOP strategist described the group to Semafor as “a total grifting operation,” and others have had questions about standard metrics like the number of doors knocked and wondered how much work the group is actually doing.
One official with Turning Point Action emphasized they were not intended to lead the party’s overall efforts, but had a specific role which they said is “narrowly focused on low-propensity, disengaged Republican voters — a universe that comprises 300,000+ in Arizona and 300,000+ in Wisconsin, and then 40,000 in Michigan 7[th district] and 30,000 in Nevada’s 3rd.” According to an internal memo reported on in April, the group had a lofty goal of raising and spending over $108 million on a Chase the Vote program: They have not reached that aspirational number, Semafor was told, and can’t use funding from Turning Point USA, which is a 501(c)(3).
“I wish we had the resources to blanket Michigan and to blanket Nevada and blanket Georgia, like we’re doing [in] Arizona [and] Wisconsin,” spokesman Andrew Kolvet said in a statement. “But barring a last minute major infusion of resources we’re just simply not able to staff those regions like we’d want to.”
The View From Congress
Trump isn’t the only one who could be affected by the party’s operations — downballot candidates, many of whom are running behind the Republican nominee in battleground states, are also hoping for a boost.
This cycle, though, they may have the ability to fill in some of the gaps themselves.The National Republican Senatorial Committee has shifted its strategy amid recent FEC findings that allow Senate Republicans to synchronize with outside groups on turnout efforts — and help Republicans across the country compete with Democrats’ hard money advantage.
“The FEC ruling allowing party committees to more closely work with outside groups on ground game has been a huge benefit when it comes to targeting low propensity and swing voters,” said Tim Edson, the NRSC’s political director. “We also expect the Trump campaign to bring out a number of low propensity voters that pollsters often miss, as he has done in the past.”
Trump’s own star power, which has drawn out a unique base of voters loyal to him in past elections, might also negate some worries about turnout. But it could leave down-ballot Republicans in a weaker position without a robust, party-wide effort in the House and Senate races that will determine Trump’s agenda if he ends up with the presidency.
Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson said he’s been urging fellow Republican Eric Hovde’s Senate campaign, the state party and the presidential campaign to merge its efforts. He’s been pleased with the results and said the Trump campaign is “not pushing back.”
“That’s how I won, is ground game,” said Johnson, who was narrowly re-elected in 2022. “It’s a big effort on our part.”
Though Republicans are increasingly confident about their chances in Montana and are competitive in Ohio’s Senate race, Democrats are holding onto stubborn leads in other traditional purple states from Arizona to Pennsylvania. Texas Sen. John Cornyn, a former GOP campaign arm head, called the disparity between Trump and Republican candidates a “solvable problem.”
Still, it might require tactics focused on Trump’s kingmaker status in tandem with routine GOTV efforts. Rallies with downballot candidates could help reduce ticket-splitting and identify voters to target for them as well.
“Trump’s got 100% name ID, and a lot of the candidates don’t,” Cornyn said. “Advertisements can [help], Trump will make public appearances with the candidates in places where he’s doing particularly well … he can help a lot and I think he will.”
The Trump campaign has also sought to reassure party members about their efforts. Last week, Trump campaign advisors held a briefing call for House Republicans that included a breakdown of its ground game. On the call, excerpts of which Semafor obtained from a source who tuned in, the Trump campaign said they had trained 25,000 “Trump Force 47” captains. The captains were described as “volunteers” who each had “a small but very specific list of” largely low-and-mid-propensity voters that are “solidly” for Donald Trump, but vote infrequently.
On the call, a Trump aide also highlighted its digital tool, called “Swamp the Vote USA,” while describing canvassing and phone-banking efforts as “significant.” The aide assured lawmakers that the campaign is keeping a close eye on ground game efforts, including those from outside groups, and maintained that the campaign is in “a better spot” compared to 2020.
SHELBY AND BURGESS’ VIEW
There are multiple theories about the drama surrounding Donald Trump’s ground game operation: Is it fueled by ousted officials like Ronna McDaniel, who might be holding a grudge? Is it a simple case of party members being nervous about change? Or is it truly a disorganized, underwhelming mess?
The truth is, we don’t really know yet: It’s hard to measure an effective field operation until it’s too late and even then a strong candidate might overcome a dysfunctional effort. But the early debate makes clear plenty of Republicans want their concerns aired early in case of a loss in November — and all the finger-pointing that would come with it.
Notable
A new report published by Reuters details how Donald Trump’s campaign and allies are placing their bets on low-propensity and newly registered voters to win the election. One person described the efforts as “a high-risk, labor-intensive strategy that could bring in a wave of new voters but could also fall short if their targets ultimately stay home.”
Trump’s ground model has some problems — namely, that it will need more team leaders than it currently has to make a serious impact — but it can also “be highly effective,” Karl Rove argued in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed.
Source link : https://news.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-unconventional-ground-game-094151485.html
Author :
Publish date : 2024-09-09 22:41:00
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source.