Michigan trees could be in for a more subtle change of fall colors this September.
Whether nature lovers can catch the transition to those classic red, orange and yellow hues comes down to September weather patterns, said Julie Crick, a natural resources educator with Michigan State University Extension.
“If we have a dry September and not much rain, the trees, the color, won’t be as vibrant,” Crick said. “The trees will just sort of change subtly, and the leaves may drop off a bit sooner. But if we continue to get intermittent rain, then our fall colors will really pop in late September, early October.”
Fall officially starts Sept. 22, the autumnal equinox, but experts say the best time for fall colors is typically the end of September and the first weeks of October, though it depends on your location in the state.
Recent weather outlooks
If intermittent rain is the key to vibrant leaf color and September’s weather turns out anything like August in Metro Detroit, those fall colors might have a chance to shine.
The past month was rainier than average for Metro Detroit with a total of 4 to 4.5 inches of precipitation, said Dave Gurney, another meteorologist with the weather service.
The weather service also recorded an average high temperature of 82.8 degrees and an average low temperature of 63.4 degrees in Metro Detroit this past August, he said. August proved slightly warmer and rainier than usual overall, he said.
Translating temperatures into tree colors
With just enough rainfall and the right amount of sunlight, the leaves on deciduous trees have a better chance of hanging on to tree branches and waiting out the full color process as the green photosynthetic chlorophyll pigment changes, Crick said.
Tree leaves tend to fall sooner with less of a show if there’s not enough moisture around to keep them on, she said. Cooler temperatures also accelerate fall colors, rendering the colors of leaves a bit more muted, she said.
“I don’t know if we can say we ever have a bad show of fall colors in Michigan, but sometimes the season does last a little longer and have more shades of fall colors if we have more rain,” Crick said.
Meteorologists and outdoor enthusiasts can only know so much from weather predictions one week into September, she said. NWS’ drier, warmer forecasts for now seem to point toward a subtler fall transition. The actual process comes down to a week-by-week basis, she said.
Where to watch for autumn leaves
A map on Pure Michigan’s website breaks down changing fall colors throughout the state, indicating when certain parts of the state will hit a certain percentage of color change by date. The Upper Peninsula should 80-100% change, for example, by Oct. 9-10. Southeast Michigan won’t see an 80-100% change until Oct. 22-23.
As far as the best places to fall color, Michigan offers beautiful fall scenery and scenic drives at nearly every turn, Crick said.
The Harbor Springs area on Michigan Highway 22 is perfect for anyone looking for the famous Tunnel of Trees, she said. The Keweenaw Peninsula also offers a spectacular range of colors because of its mixed hardwood forests, she said.
“The colors are just amazing,” she said.
Crick personally loves to watch the leaves change in the Gaylord area, she said.
Online reviews ranked Porcupine Mountains Wilderness State Park in the Upper Peninsula as the second-best place in the country to see fall foliage in 2023. USA Today also named Michigan’s UP as the best place in the U.S. for fall scenery in 2022.
Another UP park, Tahquamenon Falls State Park, came in at No. 25 on the 2023 list mixbook.com list. Hartwick Pines State Park in Grayling also made the cut and put the Lower Peninsula on the map.
Astronauts in space might catch a glimpse of Michigan’s fall beauty too, as scientists even reported seeing satellite imagery of the UP in festive fall colors in 2021.
What we know from 2023
NWS recorded Metro Detroit weather data that showed a slightly warmer and drier than usual September in 2023.
The month came in as the 34th warmest September on record, as temperatures spiked to 89 on Sept. 4 and 5 last year, according to the weather service. The month also ranked as the 66th driest September on record with just 2.28 inches of total precipitation.
Crick said she’s hopeful for a good fall colors turnout in 2024.
General climate change trends show Michigan has been getting less rain in summer months and more rain in bumper months toward the fall, she said. The effects are hard to measure, she said.
“I haven’t seen it have a huge impact on the fall colors except for when we do have some droughts,” she said.
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Publish date : 2024-09-07 16:00:00
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