In his quest to reclaim the White House, former President Donald Trump has regularly criticized President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris for crime on their watch.
“Kamala Harris has presided over a 43% increase in violent crime,” Trump said Aug. 23 at a Glendale, Arizona, campaign stop. “These are government numbers by the way, including 58% increase in rape, 89% increase in aggravated assault and 56% increase in robbery during the riots of 2020.”
The presidential campaigns have frequently traded blame for crime trends in this race, but Trump’s specific statistics were new to us.
When we asked the Republican National Committee for the source of Trump’s numbers, spokesperson Anna Kelly confirmed that they came from the National Crime Victimization Survey, which the Justice Department publishes annually. The survey covers crimes during an 18-month period, so the 2022 survey includes incidents that occurred between July 2021 and November 2022.
Using this data point does not tell the Biden administration’s full statistical story. Data from other sources, covering the same period and the time since, show violent crime declining, not increasing, since Trump left office.
What is the National Crime Victimization Survey?
To compile the crime victimization survey, researchers ask a representative sample of Americans 12 years or older whether they have experienced certain crimes in the past six months. The crimes include rape or sexual assault; robbery; aggravated or simple assault; purse snatching or pocket picking; burglary or trespassing; and motor vehicle or other thefts.
Trump has accurately stated the increase between the 2020 survey and the 2022 survey. But to get the full picture of crime patterns, it’s important to understand how the victimization survey’s methodology differs from that of the other widely followed federal source of crime data, which the FBI compiles annually.
The FBI data counts crimes reported to local police departments; the victimization survey is based on respondents’ personal recollections.
Researchers say both approaches have value. The FBI data tends to be more rigorous because it is based on formal police reports; its drawback is that not all crimes may be reported to police. (Trump and others have said the FBI data is therefore unreliable, but experts disagree.) The victimization data may capture some of these unreported crimes, but it may also capture events that don’t rise to the level of a crime.
Also, the victimization survey excludes murders, the crime for which officials have the best information overall.
Historically, these two federal metrics have tended to move in tandem, but they didn’t in 2022, for unclear reasons. From 2020 to 2022, a period that largely overlaps with the victimization survey data Trump cited, the FBI data showed violent crime falling by about 4%, rather than rising; it ended up virtually tied with 2019’s prepandemic level.
The data is old, and newer data shows crime decreasing
Another concern: lagging data.
The most recent official full-year FBI data covers 2022, making it a year and a half old. The 2022 crime victimization survey — the most recent available — stretches back even further, covering crimes from July 1, 2021, to Nov. 30, 2022. This means that the earliest crimes in the victimization survey occurred more than three full years ago; Biden and Harris had been in office for less than six months by then.
Both the FBI data and the crime victimization survey are scheduled for release later this year. Until then, we can get an early look at crime patterns beyond the annual federal releases.
The FBI has released preliminary data for 2023, showing that violent crime dropped by 5.7% from 2022 to 2023. Also, nongovernmental groups have released data, typically based on figures reported by a cross-section of several dozen cities.
This data from 2023 and 2024 aligns with the FBI’s preliminary numbers, showing that violent crime has continued to fall since 2022.
For instance, the nonpartisan Council on Criminal Justice found that through 2024’s first six months, “homicide and most other violent crimes have dropped to or slightly below levels seen before the onset of the COVID pandemic and nationwide protests that followed the killing of George Floyd.” The group based its conclusions on crime trends in a cross-section of 39 cities.
Also, the Major Cities Chiefs Association, a police group, found that violent crime dropped in 2024’s first quarter compared with 2023’s first quarter in each violent crime category: murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault. The group’s data covered 68 cities.
The private company AH Datalytics has found murders decreased 17% through late August 2024, compared with the same period in 2023.
Our ruling
Trump said, “There’s been a 43% increase in violent crimes since I left office.”
The National Crime Victimization Survey, which the Justice Department conducts annually, shows a 43% increase between the 2020 survey and the 2022 survey, the most recent available.
By focusing only on this data point, however, Trump has cherry-picked the one finding that shows crime rising under the current administration.
The other federal data set covering roughly the same period — the FBI’s annual report — found that crime went down, not up. And the crime victimization study’s time frame ends at the close of 2022; every federal and nongovernmental analysis completed since shows crime falling in 2023 and 2024.
We rate the statement Mostly False.
Source link : https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/sep/04/donald-trump/donald-trump-said-violent-crime-is-up-43-but-that/
Author :
Publish date : 2024-09-04 10:23:00
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source.