Every election depends on campaigning, but maybe none more so than the US presidential election. A handful of states, known as the swing states, are pivotal to deciding the outcome, one that has been nail bitingly close in the past.
In this new segment, updated every two weeks, Tony Diver, the US editor, and Meike Eijsberg, a data journalist, will dive into the candidates’ campaigns.
Where have the candidates campaigned so far?
States in dark grey are swing States. Hover over the dots to find out more
Campaign stops between 21 July and 2 September | Telegraph research
These insights will offer answers to questions like: What effect will Kamala Harris’ latest interview have? Why is Donald Trump campaigning in a state he’s won previously? What is happening online? How are the candidates getting donations to fund their campaign and are they succeeding at it?
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have continued to blitz through a handful of swing states, as they focused on Rust Belt states in the midwestern US in the lead-up to Labor Day on Sept 2.
Since last weekend, both presidential contenders visited Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Trump also held events in Arizona and Nevada, and Ms Harris rallied supporters in Georgia.
Polling shows Ms Harris has a narrow route to the White House via the three swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, even if she cannot overturn Trump’s lead in Arizona. The pair are tied in Nevada.
Trump’s route to power likely involves wins in the Sun Belt, which includes Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. He is also narrowly ahead in North Carolina, a swing state he won in 2020.
Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by fewer than 90,000 votes in 2020, and according to FiveThirtyEight, Ms Harris is currently leading Trump by a margin of 1.5 per cent.
Both of the candidates’ running mates also made trips to states that are not on the list of seven battlegrounds, including a visit to Maryland for Tim Walz and Kentucky for JD Vance.
While Ms Harris and Tim Walz were at the Democratic Convention in Chicago, Trump and Mr Vance were hopping across the country. In just seven days, they ticked off every single swing state.
One of the first stops was a joint rally in Asheboro, North Carolina, where recent polls show both presidential hopefuls are so close, they basically form a single line.
North Carolina was won by Trump in 2016 and 2020, by a rather slim margin. It’s not surprising that Trump has visited more than once, hitting areas with a Republican stronghold as well as more Democratic counties, to sustain and gain support.
Randolph, for instance, where Asheboro is located, is one of the reddest counties in the state. More than three quarters of its voters supported Trump in the previous two elections. Trump’s earlier North Carolina rallies in Charlotte and Asheville, however, were in counties that voted for the Democratic candidate in 2016 and 2020.
One of Trump’s latest rallies took place in Glendale, Arizona. Ms Harris has a slight lead in the polls here, but that hasn’t determined Trump’s fate in any sense. He won the state in 2016 and lost it in 2020. But in both those years, Trump gained support amongst the Hispanics and Latinos, of which the proportion in Arizona is the fourth largest.
On Wednesday, Ms Harris and Mr Walz kicked off their Georgia bus tour – the southern state was won by Biden in 2020 by the smallest margin that year, 0.23 per cent.
According to the US census, Georgia has the third largest population of African Americans, a group Harris is currently polling favourably. An August NYT/Siena poll showed that 78 percent of black respondents would vote for Ms Harris. However, that same poll showed that just half of black respondents are “almost certain” they will vote.
The bus will be targeting rural areas in particular. A solid move since polls show that only 35 per cent of rural voters are intending to vote for Ms Harris, and a quarter of Georgia’s population lives in rural areas.
Since Mr Biden stepped down on July 21, Ms Harris has spent more than 12 times as much on Google and Meta ads than Trump.
High ad spending tends to go hand in hand with specific targeting, meaning her campaign is changing tactics in an attempt to capture the attention of new voters.
Both Ms Harris and Trump are heavily targeting the swing states online, with Pennsylvania – the swing state with the highest number of electoral votes – receiving the bulk of their ads.
Mr Walz and Mr Vance seem to be spending their ad budget on the “safe” states. A quick look at their ad content reveals why: they are asking their hardcore supporters for contributions and donations.
The ad campaigns draw attention to the candidates, but they also generate new donations.
Overall, Ms Harris raised more money than Trump. She also receives more donations per day. A peak was reached on the day she became the presumptive Democratic candidate.
In the swing states, it’s a different story. In just dollars, Trump is receiving more than Ms Harris in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. In terms of individual donations, Trump has more than twice as many as Ms Harris in four of the seven swing states. This suggests that Trump has a lot of grassroot support whereas Ms Harris is dependent on bigger donors.
This article will be updated weekly with the latest information.
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Publish date : 2024-09-03 05:11:00
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