HARRISBURG, Pa. (WHTM) — Kamala Harris’s poll numbers have improved by less in Pennsylvania since Aug. 6 — the date when she announced Tim Walz as her running mate — than in all six other key battleground states, an abc27 News analysis has found.
In Pennsylvania, as in the other six states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin — Harris has improved her standing against Donald Trump as of Aug. 29 compared to Aug. 6, when she chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz rather than Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who was widely reported to be the other finalist.
New polls show Pennsylvania split between presidential candidates
But her improvement in Pennsylvania by an average of 0.6 points across polls was notably less than her improvement of between 1.2 points and 2.2 points in the other six states, according to the analysis using ABC News/538 state polling averages from both dates.
Does the Walz pick — or the Shapiro snub, from the perspective of some in Pennsylvania (including Republicans, who jokingly applauded the decision because they believed it would help Trump) — explain Harris’s relative underperformance in Pennsylvania?
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“There’s potentially some sour grapes in Pennsylvania,” said Spencer Kimball, director of polling for Emerson College, which released an Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll Thursday showing Harris and Trump virtually tied in Pennsylvania. “Remember it’s not just Shapiro who’s not on the ballot, but [Scranton native] Joe Biden too.”
On the other hand, Kimball said if the pick of Walz rather than Shapiro was a factor, it’s just as surely not the only one. Pennsylvania voters are also more concerned about the economy — 51% said its their top issue in the poll released Thursday — compared to fewer than 40% in other battleground states, and voters who cite the economy as their top issue prefer Trump by a wide margin. Another 6% cited housing affordability as their top issue.
So “three out of five voters are looking at some cost of living issue,” Kimball said, although he noted the minority of voters who cite housing affordability as their top issue overwhelmingly prefer Harris.
As for other reasons why Trump’s polling numbers have held up better in Pennsylvania than in other battleground states, “You might have a rally of Trump voters after the assassination attempt happened in Pennsylvania,” Kimball said.
He said a popular governor can help his party’s candidate despite not being on the ticket. Shapiro and Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, a Republican, are highly popular with voters in their states. Among swing-state governors, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer a Democrat, also has strong approval ratings.
“The question is, does Kemp put Trump over in Georgia? Can Shapiro carry Harris over in Pennsylvania,” Kimball said. “I think it’s too early to tell, and potentially she may have been able to help her cause by taking Shapiro, but who’s to say if that would have hurt her in other states?”
That said, “Pennsylvania is 19 electoral votes,” Kimball said — more than any other battleground state — “and that’s what made the pick so interesting.”
Between Aug. 6 and Aug. 29, Harris’s average performance against Trump improved by 2.2 points in Wisconsin, 1.9 points in North Carolina, 1.7 points in Arizona, 1.4 points in both Michigan and Nevada, 1.2 points in Georgia and 0.6 points in Pennsylvania, according to the analysis of 538 data (and in the cases of North Carolina and Nevada, supplementing the analysis with national polling changes between Aug. 6 and Aug. 10-12, which are the first dates for which 538 published polling averages for those states).
abc27 news has reached out for comment to the Harris and Trump campaigns and to a spokesperson for Shapiro. In Pennsylvania, a key opportunity for both candidates — although perhaps more for Harris, her supporters say they hope, because voters still aren’t as familiar with her as they are with the former president — will be a Sept. 10 debate in Philadelphia.
Harris’s relative lackluster performance in Pennsylvania is — to be sure — in the context of generally decent polls for the Democratic nominee. Most recent national polls have shown Harris leading, in some cases by margins outside the margin of error, which is generally about 3 points.
“In our polling, we’ve seen a slow but steady build for Harris,” Kimball said. “The difference we’re seeing is with independents. They were slightly breaking for Trump at the beginning of [August], and they’re slightly breaking for Harris at the end of the month. If she can hold onto that, she’ll have an excellent chance in November.”
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Publish date : 2024-08-30 07:41:00
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