As we approach the quadrennial political exercise known as “Is Texas turning blue?,” we need an anthem. How about “Here We Go Again,” a fine standard co-written by Texas Cowboy poet Red Stegall? Spin the version done by Willie Nelson and Norah Jones (as a tribute to Ray Charles), and you could subtitle it “Texas Democrats’ Lament.”
I’ve been there before
And I’ll try it again
But any fool knows that there’s no way to win.
Here we go again
She’ll break my heart again
I’ll play the part again
One more time.
This time, it’s a new statewide poll showing Texas tantalizingly close for Democrats at the top of the ticket. Kamala Harris, riding a wave of Democratic enthusiasm over not having to vote for Joe Biden, is just 4 percentage points behind Donald Trump, the University of Houston Hobby School and Texas Southern University Jordan-Leland School poll shows.
Perhaps even more thrilling to state Democrats, Dallas congressman Colin Allred is in a toss-up race with Sen. Ted Cruz, the poll suggests, with Cruz clinging to a 2-point lead.
All the usual caveats apply: It’s one poll, most voters aren’t paying much attention yet and the findings are within the margin of error of 2.65 percentage points. But it’s about the best scenario Democrats could expect heading into the final fall campaign.
Odds are, however, that this is as good as it gets for Team Blue — at least for now.
Former President Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz during a 2018 campaign rally. (Doug Mills/The New York Times)
Allred is running a quiet campaign, especially compared to the only Democrat to give a Republican a real statewide race in decades, Beto O’Rourke. In 2018, the largely unknown El Paso congressman boosted himself with social media, a relentless campaign schedule and Democratic angst over the Trump era. He took us to Whataburger with him, and we watched him skateboard.
It almost worked; O’Rourke lost to Cruz by a similar margin as the current poll.
Allred’s approach is to pitch himself as bipartisan, almost above the fray — and to pound Cruz as the reason Texas has such strict abortion laws.
It’s a reach of logic. State lawmakers decided to all but ban abortion once Roe vs. Wade was overturned, not Cruz. But the issue is paramount for Democratic voters and notable to many swing voters who think the state went too far. Embodying it in Cruz, a pro-life warrior, focuses their energy.
For others, Allred is offering himself up as squarely in the middle, more than his voting record really supports. To watch his ads, you’d think he’s every bit as much a border security hawk as Cruz. And he’s got tons of money to spread the message.
Meanwhile, the Republican has spent months trying to burnish his own record of bipartisanship, though on smaller-bore issues such as extending an interstate highway. He’s getting help from the GOP’s national Senate campaign arm, a sign the threat is real. And he’s reminding conservative voters of his bona fides, relying on the fact that there are simply many more of them in Texas who align with his positions.
Kamala Harris visiting Fort Worth during the 2020 campaign.
At the presidential level, don’t expect similar heat. The Biden — er, sorry, Harris — campaign can’t afford to get distracted by the Blue Texas dream. There are too many hotly competitive states, Texas requires too many campaign resources to move the needle, and a state that hasn’t voted Democratic for president since 1976 simply remains too much of a longshot.
“At the end of the day, our responsibility as a presidential campaign is to ensure we get to 270” electoral votes, Harris campaign chief Jen O’Malley Dillon said at a Democratic convention event, according to the Texas Tribune. “I would love to get to a bigger number than that, but that is all we care about.”
Another reason — one that will probably also help sink Allred in the end — is that even if Democrats wanted to pour money and staff attention into Texas, there’s simply not enough for them to work with. Democratic campaign infrastructure has atrophied over the years. There simply aren’t enough volunteers, potential staffers and experience to turn out the votes Dems would need.
The opposite is an advantage for Cruz. While Republican voter turnout efforts around the country appear to be lagging, local parties, GOP-affiliated organizations and down-ballot campaigns are robust after three decades of success. Republicans know where their voters are and how to turn them out.
That doesn’t render the current poll numbers meaningless, though. The unmistakable trend, at least with Trump on the ballot, is improvement for Democrats in nationalized races. They’re nowhere near ready to elect a governor or even a railroad commissioner, but the Trumpier the national party remains, the more fertile the ground will be here.
They’ll need a candidate who can grab the moment. O’Rourke, for all his faults, once sparked renewed energy among Texas Democrats. Allred comes across as a nice guy, but not one who can overcome 30 years of his party’s lethargy in the next 60 days.
In other words: Here we go again.
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Publish date : 2024-08-30 02:28:00
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