It’s football season so that means it’s bettin’ season. For the second consecutive year, Chicago senior columnist Jon Greenberg and Cleveland Browns beat writer Zac Jackson are picking winners (and losers) and having some fun. The two Ohio natives grew up surrounded by parlay cards and unsavory characters, so the legalization of sports betting was nothing new to them. They can’t guarantee Ws, but aren’t the real winners the friends you made along the way?
Greenberg: I can’t believe they asked us back. I just looked at our records from last season — going into the Super Bowl, I was 64-72-2 and you were 57-64 — and I guess they figured our advice was good for comic relief. (We both took the Chiefs, so at least we ended on a high note.)
I guess we do come cheap. I said I was holding out for new money and never got a reply back, so here we are, back for a second season of this column. I hope our readers enjoy betting on Jacksonville State and midweek MAC games played in front of 5,000 freezing fans.
Zac, how have you been preparing for the return of gambling season, I mean college football season?
JACKSON: By doing curls with my Phil Steele magazine and watching a bunch of incompletions in Browns camp.
I am glad you asked, though. I didn’t even know we kept records from last year. I know I won a couple that I designated as my “pick of the month” and that my mom liked the column, so let’s call it a win. And though we’ll both try to win and to keep better records this year, we’re not experts. At least not yet.
It’s a LONG season. So if we give a couple winners, preach the importance of patience/avoiding the chase and eventually give some MAC winners on election night for the few sane people remaining in this country who truly have their priorities straight, then we will have succeeded. And we’ll absolutely hold out for a raise next year.
GREENBERG: We have a pretty good Week 1 on tap. I know there aren’t a lot of blockbuster games — Georgia is nearly a two-touchdown favorite over Clemson in the marquee matchup — but there are a ton of interesting games, ones that are really tough to handicap because of what’s basically free agency. It’s wild how college football went from indentured servitude for players (relatively speaking) to the kind of free agency that far outstrips the NFL.
But one thing we can always count on: Brett Gabbert will be quarterbacking the Miami RedHawks. This guy has been there so long, he coined the phrase “cradle of coaches.” He hosted Big Ben on his recruiting visit. Gabbert is good, though not good enough that Alabama wanted to steal him up, like Chuck Martin’s old kicker.
A 🌟 in the making!
After an impressive rookie campaign @BrettGabbert earns the 2019 Freshman of the Year Award! #MACtion I @MiamiOHFootball pic.twitter.com/Ay64vEYQXa
— #MACtion (@MACSports) December 4, 2019
That’s why I’m taking Miami (Ohio) +3 at Northwestern. Fun fact: Miami is 7-3 all-time against the Wildcats. (I covered a 44-14 beatdown back in 2003 when Roethlisberger lit them up.)
Northwestern had a shockingly good season after the Pat Fitzgerald turmoil, but it also had a ton of roster turnover. David Braun is the reigning Big Ten Coach of the Year, but you’re not truly a Northwestern coach until you lose at home to Miami (Ohio). After this one, Braun will be channeling his uncle Lloyd and yelling, “Serenity now!”
JACKSON: Come Saturday, I’m going to be swimming in a buffet of college football and downright giddy about it. But with only a couple exceptions, I have to admit this is hard preparation for any kind of expectation of turning this Saturday into a winning one. Who plays for these teams? Did anybody besides Gabbert actually NOT transfer?
Before I make any picks, I have a couple of things to throw at you. You can call them theories, I guess. One is that, given all the roster turnover, the main thing I’m going to be looking for in games between Power 4 teams is an under. I think Week 1 at any level means a certain level of sloppiness, uncertainty and slow tempo — maybe all three — and I can cite the Week 0 game last Saturday between Florida State and Georgia Tech as an example. Both teams scored right away and then both teams struggled to do much of anything offensively.
I’m always looking for an under in a Drew Allar game vs. a competent opponent, so we’ll start my season at noon Saturday with under 51.5 for Penn State at West Virginia.
The other theory I’m carrying is that the transfer portal and semi-legal pay-for-play system have made it harder than ever for MAC teams and other smaller-conference schools to have any kind of depth.
Continuity has always mattered in the MAC because it’s been hard to maintain, but this year every MAC head coach is back, and I’m going to bet that a lot of them believe that winning the conference is most important. This is all a long and winding way of saying that I believe, more than ever, that MAC and C-USA teams are going to treat early buy games as glorified scrimmages and try to keep their starters out of harm’s way.
I’m not usually one looking to lay six or seven touchdowns, but I think we’ll see more white flags and late blowouts in these games with name schools vs. small schools. I’m going to track it closely through September.
GREENBERG: I hear you on Week 1 unders. I was going back and forth on the total for Thursday’s North Dakota State-Colorado game and decided to stick with Under 60.5.
I was thinking about taking the Bison, a I-AA powerhouse (I’ll never use FCS) getting 10, but for all his mishegas, Deion Sanders still has his son Shedeur at quarterback and Travis Hunter doing everything else but the laundry.
Still, if North Dakota State can establish the run early, this should be a competitive game that hopefully goes under 60. Speaking of Deion, are you like me and cringing every time an adult calls him “Coach Prime”? It’s so embarrassing.
JACKSON: I have two futures to share.
First, Texas under 10 victories. You’re not (playing) in Kansas anymore, Longhorns. Look at that schedule: at Michigan, then the SEC (including Georgia the week after the big Oklahoma game). The Longhorns have lots of good players, but they lost their two highly-drafted wide receivers and defensive tackles from last year’s team and have had running back injuries in camp.
My other one is Bowling Green over six victories (or even 6.5, but you should always shop).
Stability in the MAC matters, as noted above. The non-conference schedule is not murderous, and there’s a chance a lot of the teams in the league just stink. This Bowling Green team should not stink, and assuming something resembling good health and competence from its quarterback timeshare, the Falcons should win at least eight games and maybe the league.
GREENBERG: How many Bowling Green win total bets exist in the world?
I’ll take your MAC advice, and I’ll go with my five-star lock of the week, presented by The Spot Bar in Steubenville, Ohio, the only bar in town that has hosted me, the Kelce Brothers and a slew of Dean Martin impersonators: Ohio State -48.5 vs. Akron.
I don’t think it matters if Akron plays their starters all game or not. Maybe the Buckeyes don’t cover and only win by 47, but it feels more like a 56-point edge. The last time they faced each other in 2021, Ohio State won 59-7, and that was with C.J. Stroud out and Kyle McCord starting.
Wait, they’re playing at Ohio Stadium, right, and not InfoCision Stadium?
JACKSON: I’m guessing it’s in Columbus. InfoCision only draws crowds for high school playoff games and the occasional SWV concert.
I will be tuned in Saturday just for the human element. Imagine being Ryan Day and knowing you have to beat two blue-clad powerhouses to keep your job: Michigan and Akron. I won’t tail you on the 48.5, but I’ll be watching.
For a little Saturday night special, I’ll take Notre Dame +3 at Texas A&M, and I’m going to take under 50 in the Florida State-Boston College tilt Monday night. It’s quite a strange world when Cal is in the ACC and Florida State opens with two league games — one in Ireland — isn’t it? Light week for me as we try to figure out who actually plays on these teams.
GREENBERG: I like that Notre Dame bet too, but I have no interest in sweating that one out.
My last two picks for the week are Georgia -13.5 over Clemson in the “Let’s Laugh at Dabo Bowl” and Florida +2.5 over Miami in the “Which Coach Is Getting Fired This Season Bowl.” Probably both of them, but Billy Napier will start the season off with a win in The Swamp.
Zac Jackson’s picks
Jon Greenberg’s picks
(Photo of Brett Gabbert: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)
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Publish date : 2024-08-28 22:00:00
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