Nevadans are turning away from the Democratic Party.
At least that’s what voter registration numbers show over the past four years.
Between Aug. 1, 2020, and Aug. 1, 2024, the number registered Democrats who are active voters has tumbled by about 31,000 while the number of Republicans has risen by about 31,000.
That swing of 62,000 registered voters toward the Republican Party will be viewed as good news in former President Donald Trump’s campaign. It would more than wipe out the margin of his 2020 loss to Joe Biden.
Democrats still have a big advantage numbers-wise, though. As of August, there are about 92,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in Nevada.
How turnout could affect 2024 Nevada races
This raw-numbers advantage for Democrats means that even if they turn out to vote at a lower percentage than Republicans, they can still win by virtue of having so many more registered voters in their camp.
For instance, in 2020, about 77% of Democrats voted in the general election compared with 81% of Republicans. Even with better turnout for Republicans, Democrats cast almost 40,000 more votes.
This, in part, explains why a Republican presidential nominee has not won Nevada since George W. Bush in 2004.
The key to Nevada’s voter registration numbers, though, lies with independents. They outnumber both Republicans and Democrats, so the major parties must appeal to them if they want to win.
The 2020 election is a good example of this dynamic.
Assuming 100% of Democrats voted for Biden in 2020 and 100% of Republicans for Trump, Biden should’ve won by about 6,000 votes more than he did if nonpartisans had been split evenly for each candidate. Instead, Nevada nonpartisans tilted slightly Republican.
How much they tilt will decide who gets Nevada’s six electoral votes.
By the numbers: Change in Nevada’s registered voters 2020 to 2024
Democrats still outnumber Republicans in Nevada, but that number has shrunk dramatically in the past four years.
In August 2020, there were 91,536 more Democrats than Republicans in Nevada based on the number of active registered voters. In August 2024, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by only 29,019 — a 68% drop.
“Active” means someone who has voted in the past two general elections; inactive voters can still vote, but they won’t automatically receive a mail-in ballot. Active voters are more likely to actually vote.
Here’s a breakdown of the percentage change from Aug. 1, 2020, to Aug. 1, 2024, for each type of active registered voter in Nevada, as reported by the Secretary of State’s Office:
Democrats: 4.9% decrease in the past four yearsRepublicans: 5.7% increaseNonpartisans: 76.8% increaseOther parties: 37.9% increase
Other political parties include Independent American, Libertarian and Green.
Why the huge jump in nonpartisans in Nevada?
In 2018, Nevadans approved a ballot initiative to institute automatic voter registration at the Department of Motor Vehicles. It started in January 2020.
Anyone who interacts with the DMV gets registered to vote unless they actively go out of their way to decline registration. The opt-out form is completed away from the DMV window after whatever driver’s license transaction is being done, making it even harder not to become registered.
If someone does not specifically choose a party affiliation, they get registered as nonpartisan. This default registration lies behind the huge jump in Nevada nonpartisans.
Because of large nonpartisan numbers, political strategists often recommend that candidates avoid staking out positions that might be viewed as extreme by those in the middle.
Phil Becker, a Republican voting analyst, told the RGJ last year that Republican candidates in statewide races did well in the 2022 general election when they stuck closer to the center politically, such as now-Gov. Joe Lombardo, whereas those who promoted how far right they were did worse, such as those running for attorney general, secretary of state and treasurer.
“Republicans who won did so by establishing name recognition and not scaring the independent vote away,” he said.
GOP analyst: Republican candidates saying ‘stupid stuff’ kept party from sweeping 2022 state races
Mark Robison is the state politics reporter for the Reno Gazette Journal, with occasional forays into other topics. Email comments to mrobison@rgj.com or comment on Mark’s Greater Reno Facebook page.
Source link : http://www.bing.com/news/apiclick.aspx?ref=FexRss&aid=&tid=66d06a6786f24d898e67bb272f22f22a&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fstory%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Felections%2F2024%2F08%2F29%2Frepublicans-democrats-voter-registration-data-nevada%2F74956601007%2F&c=14394813614308554199&mkt=en-us
Author :
Publish date : 2024-08-29 01:03:00
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source.