13 minutes with Iowa offensive coordinator Tim Lester on media day
The first-year OC for the Hawkeyes was a popular coach at the team’s media day, 22 days from the Hawkeyes’ season opener vs. Illinois State.
IOWA CITY − We’ve almost made it. The highly anticipated 2024 Iowa football season is only days away from kicking off.
The Hawkeyes’ seven-game home schedule is sold out, starting Aug. 31 against Illinois State (11 a.m., BTN), which just got a lot more interesting with the one-game suspensions for head coach Kirk Ferentz and wide receivers coach Jon Budmayr.
Beyond that, there is major curiosity with the Tim Lester offense, with how good this super-veteran defense can be and how Iowa will navigate the first college season in the 12-team playoff era.
But we aren’t quite there yet. To help get you to the starting line of the Hawkeyes’ campaign, I’ve put some thought into offering five bold predictions for the season ahead.
These aren’t safe picks. These are mostly on the positive side, because this is a time for optimism combined with a little realism. And as a reminder, before the inevitable complaints and unproductive banter also kick off, sports are supposed to be fun. So let’s have some fun and see if any of these long-shot predictions come to fruition.
Video: Ladell Betts on Leshon Williams, Kaleb Johnson and more
Running backs coach Ladell Betts discusses a variety of topics at Iowa football media day on August 9, 2024.
No. 1: Nine Hawkeyes will score rushing touchdowns to set a program record*
A program record? Unofficially*, yes! Nine different players rushing the football into the end zone may not seem like a ton, but the most ever in the Hayden Fry/Kirk Ferentz eras is eight – which has happened three times, in the 1990, 2003 and 2019 seasons. All three either ended in the Rose Bowl or with at least 10 wins. And, hilariously, kicker Nate Kaeding was among the eight rushers to reach the end zone in 2003, a reminder that unusual things can be required just to reach eight. So … nine? Really?
Nine is a lofty number, considering Iowa had a total of 11 rushing touchdowns in 14 games last year. But these are supposed to be bold, and this is a reflection of the many options that Iowa has in its loaded backfield plus the innovation that its first-year offensive coordinator seeks in the red zone. Remember, one of Lester’s best achievements with a young, injury-plagued roster as Syracuse offensive coordinator in 2015 was improving his red-zone offense to No. 8 in the country (up from 85th the previous year).
I expect Lester to be very aggressive in wide-receiver runs. That could mean rushing touchdowns for at least two wide receivers if not more. Kaleb Brown (also suspended Week 1) and Kaden Wetjen seem like the most likely candidates. Iowa has five running backs who should see carries, and all of them have explosive ability and will be used. That list: Leshon Williams, Kaleb Johnson, Kamari Moulton, Jaziun Patterson and Terrell Washington Jr. (who is another jet sweep possibility as a hybrid receiver). That’s seven, well within reach.
And then, teasing the next bold prediction, quarterback rushing touchdowns are inevitable on sneaks and scrambles. I would expect at least two if not three players to take snaps this season. Cade McNamara probably gets the most snaps, and Brendan Sullivan has good mobility – not to mention Marco Lainez is a great running option at QB and could be a gadget red-zone option for Lester. If two of them score on runs, that’s nine different Hawkeyes with rushing touchdowns.
I expect the run game to be heavily implemented all season for Iowa, and the offensive line will be as good as it’s been since at least 2020. And running backs coach Ladell Betts is not afraid to go with the hot hand, so the featured back – and primary ground-game scorer – could vary from week to week for the Hawkeyes.
Brendan Sullivan: ‘I like my performance so far’ learning Iowa offense
The Northwestern transfer details some of his early days in Iowa football’s fall camp and his mindset in competing with Cade McNamara.
No. 2: Brendan Sullivan will make at least five starts at quarterback
Iowa’s Week 1 depth chart comes out Monday, but Ferentz has already indicated that McNamara will be No. 1 despite a fall camp filled with inconsistency.
It says a lot that Sullivan, the Northwestern transfer, has been pushing McNamara for the No. 1 role despite arriving in June. Sullivan hasn’t shown he is more than an average quarterback, but average would be an upgrade for Iowa. He has a track record of accuracy (68.7% in his 13 games played, including eight starts, with the Wildcats) and limiting turnovers, two things that Ferentz very much values.
The best-case scenario for Iowa is that McNamara starts the season and gets better and better each week, leading the team to weekly success as he did at Michigan in 2021 before two major knee surgeries. That is certainly possible. But whether it be a McNamara injury or poor performance, at some point this season Sullivan will be appointed to take the Hawkeyes’ first snap on a Saturday.
Based on the murmurs from fall camp combined with a poor Kids Day performance, the best guess is that McNamara will have some September struggles. The question, if that’s the case, is how quick will Ferentz’s hook be? Halftime of Week 1? During the heat of the battle in Week 2 against Iowa State? During the bye week after Iowa’s Sept. 21 trip to Minnesota if things are going poorly for the offense?
And before you start groaning that this is a doom-and-gloom prediction, it may ultimately be the best thing for this offense and this season if Sullivan leads the first team sooner rather than later. But expect McNamara to have his chance until he fails or gets hurt. Keep in mind, too, that Sullivan has two years’ eligibility, so if he can take the job and run with it, that could be a positive for the 2025 team.
Last thing: The players always know who is better. And many of them returned for a chance at a memorable 2024 season. If Sullivan is outplaying McNamara in practice and the games aren’t going well, they will rally around the best guy for the job.
Hear from Sebastian Castro during Iowa football’s media day
Defensive back Sebastian Castro spoke with reporters during media day on Friday.
Marc Ray
No. 3: Sebastian Castro, not Jay Higgins, will be the star of this year’s defense
Higgins is fantastic and, if healthy, will rack up big tackle numbers again. Ideally, though, Iowa’s offense stays on the field for more than the paltry 28-plus minutes of possession it did the past two years – a number more like 32 (like the 2019 team) would be nice – and limits Higgins’ tackle needs.
Instead, I expect opposing offenses to take more chances against Iowa’s defense, which will create more turnover opportunities – and Castro, the sixth-year senior cash defender, is plenty capable of taking advantage.
Among Iowa fans, Castro’s hard-hitting, fast-closing exploits are already known. But he hasn’t gotten the widespread honors that he has deserved – honorable mention all-Big Ten a year ago from the coaches is still a head-scratcher. Castro was third on the team in tackles a year ago with a team-high three interceptions, including a pick-six at Iowa State. He also had the single-best game performance of any Hawkeye defender a year ago at Wisconsin. (That missile-like hit of Braelon Allen and forced fumble still is remarkable to watch.)
Castro’s ability – not to mention that he can slide back to safety when needed or rush the passer from his cash spot – should put him in position for more splash plays, more notoriety and perhaps contention for Big Ten defensive back of the year in 2024.
4 minutes with new Iowa punter Rhys Dakin, who has Tory Taylor vibes
The Australia native has been everything Iowa hoped he would be at punter so far. Consistency is his biggest focus going forward.
No. 4: Once again, Iowa will have the first-team all-Big Ten punter
Tory Taylor is irreplaceable, obviously. With apologies to the late Reggie Roby, Taylor is the best punter in Iowa history. The Chicago Bears knew that and used a fourth-round pick on Taylor, who has suddenly become a star among teammates and on HBO’s “Hard Knocks” series that is airing now.
Taylor was the Ray Guy Award winner as the nation’s top punter a year ago and a two-time first-team all-Big Ten selection. Yet every glimpse so far of freshman Rhys Dakin, who also came to Iowa via Australia’s Prokick pipeline, shows that he has every bit of Taylor’s leg and possibly even more hang time.
We’ll see how Dakin’s consistency and accuracy goes and how he acclimates to his first year of college football, but Iowa is already gaining a reputation (for better or for worse) as “Punter U” thanks to Taylor. If Dakin can boom kicks like Taylor did, he’ll quickly gain acclaim not only in Iowa but across the Big Ten.
A true freshman being first-team all-conference won’t be easy among 18 teams. And Michigan State returns Ryan Eckley, who averaged 46.8 yards per punt a year ago (Taylor was at 48.2). But Dakin has an elite long snapper in Luke Elkin and with expected inconsistency in Iowa’s offense, he should have plenty of opportunities to punt and showcase his powerful right leg.
Video: Phil Parker provides updates on Iowa football’s defense
Iowa football defensive coordinator Phil Parker discusses a variety of topics on August 20, 2024.
No. 5: Nov. 29 will feature the highest-stakes Iowa-Nebraska game yet
Now, as many of you have read, I’ve got Iowa going 9-3 this season. That would exceed Vegas oddsmakers’ expectations but fall short of the College Football Playoff. But some good bounces of the ball could have the Hawkeyes 9-2 or even 10-1 going into the Black Friday regular-season finale at Kinnick Stadium, to be played under the lights and aired on NBC.
Nebraska also should (finally) be a bowl team this year and has a friendly enough schedule that 8-3 or 9-2 going into Black Friday is plenty feasible.
When Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2011, it was assumed that the Hawkeyes and Cornhuskers would definitely play some high-stakes games. Yet there was never a winner-take-all matchup in the Big Ten West. Whenever the teams met, one team was usually up and the other was down.
Yeah, Nebraska clinched the Big Ten West in Kinnick in 2012, but that Iowa team went 4-8. Sure, Iowa clinched a 12-0 regular season in Lincoln in 2015, but that Nebraska team had five wins and an arm-punt quarterback. Yes, Iowa rallied to a win in 2021 that ultimately landed a Big Ten West title (with help the next day) but that Huskers team had three wins in the second-to-last Scott Frost season. The 2016 game in Kinnick had some meaning, sure – Nebraska needed a win and help to earn the Big Ten West title, but the 7-4 Hawkeyes delivered a 40-10 rout to cement Wisconsin as West champion.
With the 12-team playoff now a thing and both Iowa and Nebraska with improved rosters and friendly schedules, it feels like there’s a good chance that at least one will have a major postseason berth on the line on Black Friday. And wouldn’t it be something if both teams were somehow 10-1?
Hawkeyes columnist Chad Leistikow has served for 29 years with The Des Moines Register and USA TODAY Sports Network. Chad is the 2023 INA Iowa Sports Columnist of the Year and NSMA Co-Sportswriter of the Year in Iowa. Join Chad’s text-message group (free for subscribers) at @ChadLeistikow on Twitter.
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Publish date : 2024-08-25 01:00:00
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