Mark Joslyn
| Special to The Capital-Journal
For over a century, Johnson County residents voted for Republican presidential candidates.
Even during periods of Democrat strength, including Franklin Roosevelt’s landslide victory in 1932 and Lyndon Johnson’s overwhelming triumph in 1964, the county stayed true to its Republican identity.
Woodward Wilson was the last Democrat to win Johnson County, achieving this feat way back in 1916.
But in 2020, Joe Biden put an end to the extraordinary run.
Two years later, nearly 60% of Johnson County voters supported Gov. Kelly’s reelection bid, and the county’s state House and Senate Democrat delegations increased considerably. Democrats, in fact, now consider Johnson County a crucial battle ground in the 2024 elections.
So, we have arrived at an important crossroad.
Are Democrat gains in Johnson County a harbinger of things to come? Or are they a temporary break in an otherwise robust trend of Republican dominance?
The answer can be attributed to changes in demographics. Johnson County’s population is increasingly urban, college-educated, and wealthy — trends that favor the Democratic Party.
Moreover, Democrat-leaning industries — education, health care and scientific professionals — now account for roughly 40% of the county’s employment base. Accordingly, the proportion of Johnson County voters registered as Democrats has increased from 20% in 2000 to 32% today.
But these changes cannot fully account for the shifts in voting behavior. After all, the percentage of voters in Johnson County registered as Republican has remained above 40%.
What has changed is the Republican Party. It has failed to offer candidates that appeal to moderates and those unaffiliated with either party.
In the 2018 gubernatorial race, for example, Laura Kelly prevailed over Kris Kobach by 5 points statewide.
In Johnson County, Kelly thumped Kobach by a whopping 17 points.
Also, in 2018, Democrat Sharice Davids unseated incumbent Republican Kevin Yoder in the race for Kansas’ 3rd Congressional District — which includes Johnson County.
Davids skillfully managed a centrist image and has been able to hold the seat comfortably even after the district’s boundaries were redrawn to eliminate Democrat advantages.
In 2016, Trump resonated with centrist voters. He secured majority support from independents and suburban voters across the nation and extended the Republican streak in Johnson County.
Four year later, Biden seized the ideological center winning 64% of moderates and 54% of Independents.
He convincingly won Johnson County, garnering an unprecedented 53% of the vote.
The meaning is clear: Centrism thrives in Johnson County.
The county’s demographics do suggest a supportive environment for Democrats. This alone implies Kamala Harris is poised to win Johnson County.
However, a better explanation is that county residents like centrist candidates.
Neither Harris nor Trump, at this point, are centrists.
And their vice president picks merely energized core supporters, prioritizing base maximization strategies over appeals to on-the-fence moderates.
Despite centrism’s successful track record of winning elections, reaching out to moderate voters if often met with disapproval. Passionate partisans steer candidates away from the middle ground in favor of more extreme policy agendas.
Should Harris resist progressive pressures and concentrate on moderate voters, she will be in a strong position to take Johnson County and may very well be the next president.
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Publish date : 2024-08-23 22:15:00
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