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Florida State vs. Georgia Tech: Preview, odds, and prediction

The Florida State Seminoles and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are set to kick off the 2024 college football season in the Aer Lingus College Football Classic overseas from Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland on Saturday afternoon. With week 0 finally here, access the best welcome promos, latest odds, and expert betting guides with the top Michigan sportsbooks.

These two ACC opponents haven’t played since 2022, when the Seminoles handled the Yellow Jackets 41-16 at home in late October. Following Florida State’s unraveling at the end of 2023, highlighted by a season-ending injury to former quarterback and Heisman Trophy prospect, Jordan Travis, D.J. Uiagalelei is now operating as the Seminoles’ starting signal-caller.

Will quarterback Haynes King and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets make enough big plays to compete with Florida State? Or will this matchup quickly become a lopsided affair in Dublin?

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Can D.J. Uiagalelei finally be the guy?

The main storyline in this matchup is how Uiagalelei will play in his first game at Florida State. He bounced around from Clemson to Oregon State, and now, is tasked with leading the nation’s 10th ranked team into the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.

Uiagalelei completed only 57 percent of his pass attempts for Oregon State in 2022 and has never surpassed 61.9 percent since becoming Clemson’s full-time starter in 2021. The good news is that Uiagalelei faces a Yellow Jackets defense that surrendered 31.1 points per game in 2023, 97th out of 133 FBS programs.

Oddsmakers have set Florida State’s team point total to 34.5, with -125 odds favoring the under. This shows their hesitancy toward backing Uiagalelei at quarterback, since he never recorded a 300-yard passing game with the Beavers a year ago. It also partially explains why the point spread odds have shifted in the Yellow Jackets’ favor since opening at +13.

FanDuel odds: Florida State vs. Georgia Tech

The current point spread for Florida State vs. Georgia Tech is available to bet at +10.5, moving 2.5 points in favor of the underdog during the past nine days. Florida State remains a sizable moneyline favorite at -465 on FanDuel Sportsbook, with -112 odds on their -10.5 point spread line.

This game comes down to how Georgia Tech plays on both sides of the ball. The Yellow Jackets undoubtedly have more continuity and experience playing together, returning quarterback Haynes King, running back Jamal Haynes, and wideouts Malik Rutherford and Eric Singleton.  However, the Seminoles ranked 18th in opponent points per game (19.3) last year under defensive-minded head coach, Mike Norvell. Yet, Georgia Tech did record over 31 points per game, so they should be able to score enough to make Florida State uncomfortable.

Georgia Tech’s defense has to improve and it may benefit from Uiagalelei’s inexperience in this system, along with a transition from former Florida State stars Trey Benson and Keon Coleman. After all, the point total odds have moved a full point from 56.5 down to 55.5 on Michigan betting apps since opening eight days ago. However, the arrival of running back Roydell Williams from Alabama is a massive boost to the Seminoles’ backfield.

The Yellow Jackets can’t sting themselves

Turnovers are the second biggest storyline in ths game. Last year, King threw 16 interceptions and the Yellow Jackets committed two or more offensive turnovers in seven of their 12 games.

Projected first-round pick Patrick Payton and Florida State’s defense should remain stout and bail out a revamped offense that may experience some early growing pains. Uiagalelei has been prone to committing turnovers during his collegiate career, while failing to complete passes with consistency.

Sloppy play could very well be on tap for this overseas conference matchup on Saturday, building a case for backing the point total under at 55.5. Look back at 2020 to a similar situation, with Florida State losing outright 16-13 to Georgia Tech. Yes, the personnel is different, but we may wind up watching a defensive slugfest in Ireland.

Florida State vs. Georgia Tech odds and point spread

Sticking with the defensive battle narrative, betting Florida State’s team total points under 34.5 makes a lot of sense. The Yellow Jackets have had all off-season to prepare for this matchup and they’ll make the most of the turnover within the Seminoles’ offense.

Another good strategy to improve the chances of cashing a winning bet in this opening game to the 2024 college football season is tapping into the alternative spread betting market. Specifically, betting on Georgia Tech to cover +13.5. Lay the juice at -140 at FanDuel to buy a couple of points and get close to the opening number, which was set at +13.

Florida State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four season openers as a favorite. By taking three more points at -140, we’re ensuring that a field goal won’t make the difference, especially if the Yellow Jackets’ defense can contain Uiagalelei through the air.

Florida State vs. Georgia Tech prediction

Expect Florida State to lean on Williams and its revamped rushing attack to help out Uiagalelei in his first start under center. Georgia Tech’s offense may stall out due to facing a top-20 defensive unit, despite scoring points in bunches a year ago.

The point total under 55.5 is my favorite bet in this matchup. I believe Florida State wins by 10-13 points, taking advantage of Georgia Tech’s miscues and weak run defense. We could see a lot of clock get chewed with a methodical run game behind Wiliams and Uiagalelei, keeping the ball with the Seminoles’ offense, resulting in a final score of 31-20.

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Publish date : 2024-08-23 20:19:00

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