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ESPN predicts each 2024 Ohio State football game using its FPI matchup predictor

Nov 11, 2023; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes tight end Cade Stover (8) is congratulated by Ohio State Buckeyes offensive lineman Carson Hinzman (75) on his touchdown during the NCAA football game against Michigan State University at Ohio Stadium.

Nov 11, 2023; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes tight end Cade Stover (8) is congratulated by Ohio State Buckeyes offensive lineman Carson Hinzman (75) on his touchdown during the NCAA football game against Michigan State University at Ohio Stadium.

The Ohio State football season is getting closer by the day, now just a few short weeks away and this year has a chance to be a really special one.

Things got even more real on Thursday when head coach Ryan Day officially named Kansas State transfer Will Howard the starter, so now it’s time to smooth out the edges and get the offense humming and ready to go for the season opener vs. Akron on Saturday, Aug. 31.

The Buckeyes are expected to not only contend for a Big Ten title but make the College Football Playoff and make a run towards the CFP national championship because of perhaps the deepest and most talented roster in the country. However, the schedule won’t be easy with Ohio State having to travel to Eugene to take on an almost equally talented Oregon squad, a trip to Happy Valley to take on Penn State, a home contests with Iowa, and — of course — the season-ending game against Michigan.

Each year, we take a look at the ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor to see what chances the geeky computer model gives OSU to win each of its games, and it just so happens the fine folks at the “worldwide leader” hit the buttons, pulled the levers, and let the bleeps and bloops spit out the numbers this week.

Here’s a look at what ESPN says are the chances of Ohio State winning each of its regular season games on the schedule for 2024, and a running, predictive record.

Saturday, Aug. 31 vs. AkronAkron Zips wide receiver George Qualls Jr. (4) celebrates with Akron Zips wide receiver Tony Grimes Jr. (16) after scoring during the first half of an NCAA football game at InfoCision Stadium, Saturday, Dec. 5, 2020, in Akron, Ohio. [Jeff Lange/Beacon Journal]

Zipsfb 1Akron Zips wide receiver George Qualls Jr. (4) celebrates with Akron Zips wide receiver Tony Grimes Jr. (16) after scoring during the first half of an NCAA football game at InfoCision Stadium, Saturday, Dec. 5, 2020, in Akron, Ohio. [Jeff Lange/Beacon Journal]

Zipsfb 1

Akron Zips wide receiver George Qualls Jr. (4) celebrates with Akron Zips wide receiver Tony Grimes Jr. (16) after scoring during the first half of an NCAA football game at InfoCision Stadium, Saturday, Dec. 5, 2020, in Akron, Ohio. [Jeff Lange/Beacon Journal] Zipsfb 1

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner | Ohio StateBuckeyes Win Probability | 98.7%All-Time Series | OSU leads 8-1

Projected Running Record | 1-0

Saturday, Sept. 7 vs. Western MichiganOct 7, 2023; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Zach Arnett stands on the sidelines during the fourth quarter of the game against the Western Michigan Broncos at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY SportsOct 7, 2023; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Zach Arnett stands on the sidelines during the fourth quarter of the game against the Western Michigan Broncos at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Oct 7, 2023; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Zach Arnett stands on the sidelines during the fourth quarter of the game against the Western Michigan Broncos at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner | Ohio StateBuckeyes Win Probability | 98.2%All-Time Series | OSU leads 1-0

Projected Running Record | 2-0

Saturday, Sept. 21 vs. MarshallSept 2, 2010; Columbus, OH, USA; Marshall Thundering Herd running back Andre Booker (19) fumbles while being tackled by Ohio State Buckeyes defensive back Dominic Clarke (28) and linebacker Dorian Bell (11) on the opening play of their game at Ohio Stadium. Greg Bartram-USA TODAY SportsSept 2, 2010; Columbus, OH, USA; Marshall Thundering Herd running back Andre Booker (19) fumbles while being tackled by Ohio State Buckeyes defensive back Dominic Clarke (28) and linebacker Dorian Bell (11) on the opening play of their game at Ohio Stadium. Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports

Sept 2, 2010; Columbus, OH, USA; Marshall Thundering Herd running back Andre Booker (19) fumbles while being tackled by Ohio State Buckeyes defensive back Dominic Clarke (28) and linebacker Dorian Bell (11) on the opening play of their game at Ohio Stadium. Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner | Ohio StateBuckeyes Win Probability | 96.4%All-Time Series | OSU leads 1-0

Projected Running Record | 3-0

Saturday, Sept. 28 vs. Michigan StateMichigan State's head coach Jonathan Smith leaves the file after the Spring Showcase on Saturday, April 20, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing.Michigan State's head coach Jonathan Smith leaves the file after the Spring Showcase on Saturday, April 20, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing.

Michigan State’s head coach Jonathan Smith leaves the file after the Spring Showcase on Saturday, April 20, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing.

Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, Michigan)

Predicted Winner | Ohio StateBuckeyes Win Probability | 91.5%All-Time Series | OSU leads 37-15

Projected Running Record | 4-0

Saturday, Oct. 5 vs. Iowa230422 Iowa Spring Fb 100 Jpg230422 Iowa Spring Fb 100 Jpg

230422 Iowa Spring Fb 100 Jpg

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner | Ohio StateBuckeyes Win Probability | 87.0%All-Time Series | OSU leads 47-15-3

Projected Running Record | 5-0

Saturday, Oct. 12 at OregonOct 28, 2023; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning talks with quarterback Bo Nix (10) during a timeout against the Utah Utes during the second half at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Creveling-USA TODAY SportsOct 28, 2023; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning talks with quarterback Bo Nix (10) during a timeout against the Utah Utes during the second half at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Creveling-USA TODAY Sports

Oct 28, 2023; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning talks with quarterback Bo Nix (10) during a timeout against the Utah Utes during the second half at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Creveling-USA TODAY Sports

Autzen Stadium (Eugene, Oregon)

Predicted Winner | OregonBuckeyes Win Probability | 34.5%All-Time Series | OSU leads 9-1

Projected Running Record | 5-1

Saturday, Oct. 26 vs. NebraskaAug 31, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers linebacker Eric Fields (42) celebrates a tackle against the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the third quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY SportsAug 31, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers linebacker Eric Fields (42) celebrates a tackle against the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the third quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Aug 31, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers linebacker Eric Fields (42) celebrates a tackle against the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the third quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner | Ohio StateBuckeyes Win Probability | 91.4%All-Time Series | OSU leads 9-1

Projected Running Record | 6-1

Saturday, Nov. 2 at Penn StateCOLUMBUS, OHIO - OCTOBER 21: Kaden Saunders #7 of the Penn State Nittany Lions celebrates his fourth quarter touchdown with teammates Dante Cephas #3 and Tyler Warren #44 of the Penn State Nittany Lions during a game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium on October 21, 2023 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images)COLUMBUS, OHIO - OCTOBER 21: Kaden Saunders #7 of the Penn State Nittany Lions celebrates his fourth quarter touchdown with teammates Dante Cephas #3 and Tyler Warren #44 of the Penn State Nittany Lions during a game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium on October 21, 2023 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images)

COLUMBUS, OHIO – OCTOBER 21: Kaden Saunders #7 of the Penn State Nittany Lions celebrates his fourth quarter touchdown with teammates Dante Cephas #3 and Tyler Warren #44 of the Penn State Nittany Lions during a game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium on October 21, 2023 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images)

Beaver Stadium (State College, Pennsylvania)

Predicted Winner | Ohio StateBuckeyes Win Probability | 50.8%All-Time Series | OSU leads 24-14

Projected Running Record | 7-1

Saturday, Oct. 9 vs. PurdueOhio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) breaks the tackle of Purdue Boilermakers defensive back Derrick Rogers Jr. (13) during the NCAA football game, Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Ohio State Buckeyes won 41-7.Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) breaks the tackle of Purdue Boilermakers defensive back Derrick Rogers Jr. (13) during the NCAA football game, Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Ohio State Buckeyes won 41-7.

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) breaks the tackle of Purdue Boilermakers defensive back Derrick Rogers Jr. (13) during the NCAA football game, Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Ohio State Buckeyes won 41-7.

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner | Ohio StateBuckeyes Win Probability | 93.3%All-Time Series | OSU leads 41-15-2

Projected Running Record | 8-1

Saturday, Nov. 16 at NorthwesternSep 3, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Northwestern Wildcats interim coach David Braun talks with defensive lineman Sean McLaughlin (97) during the first half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY SportsSep 3, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Northwestern Wildcats interim coach David Braun talks with defensive lineman Sean McLaughlin (97) during the first half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Sep 3, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Northwestern Wildcats interim coach David Braun talks with defensive lineman Sean McLaughlin (97) during the first half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois)

Predicted Winner | Ohio StateBuckeyes Win Probability | 87.8%All-Time Series | OSU leads 65-14-1

Projected Running Record | 9-1

Saturday, Nov. 23 vs. IndianaIndiana's Brendan Sorsby (15) passes during the first half of the Indiana versus Indiana State football game at Memorial Stadium on Friday, Sept. 8, 2023.Indiana's Brendan Sorsby (15) passes during the first half of the Indiana versus Indiana State football game at Memorial Stadium on Friday, Sept. 8, 2023.

Indiana’s Brendan Sorsby (15) passes during the first half of the Indiana versus Indiana State football game at Memorial Stadium on Friday, Sept. 8, 2023.

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner | Ohio StateBuckeyes Win Probability | 94.6%All-Time Series | OSU leads 79-12-5

Projected Running Record | 10-1

Saturday, Nov. 30 vs. MichiganNov. 25, 2023; Ann Arbor, Mi., USA;
Helmets for the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Michigan Wolverines decorate the on-field set for ESPNÕs College GameDay before SaturdayÕs NCAA Division I football game at Michigan Stadium.Nov. 25, 2023; Ann Arbor, Mi., USA;
Helmets for the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Michigan Wolverines decorate the on-field set for ESPNÕs College GameDay before SaturdayÕs NCAA Division I football game at Michigan Stadium.

Nov. 25, 2023; Ann Arbor, Mi., USA; Helmets for the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Michigan Wolverines decorate the on-field set for ESPNÕs College GameDay before SaturdayÕs NCAA Division I football game at Michigan Stadium.

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner | Ohio StateBuckeyes Win Probability | 74.2%All-Time Series | OSU trails 51-61-6

Total Regular Season Record | 11-1

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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: ESPN predicts each 2024 Ohio State football game using its FPI matchup predictor

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Publish date : 2024-08-15 22:59:00

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