Jewish voters recently surveyed in battleground Pennsylvania favored Harris over Trump by 12 points, 55%-43%, according to a poll conducted by the Honan Strategy Group earlier this month and shared with NBC News.
The survey is actually somewhat encouraging for Trump. It’s not a frequently polled demographic, so there is little other data to compare to in Pennsylvania. But anywhere from 60% to 70% of Jewish voters nationally backed Democrats at the presidential level in recent elections, according to past research, so the survey may show some small amount of movement toward him.
And Pennsylvania is the swing state with the most Jewish voters, so even a small swing toward the former president could make a big difference.
The pollster assembled the sample by contacting voters with common Jewish surnames, and respondents then self-identified when asked. The group polled 400 Jewish voters from July 26 to Aug. 1, with a margin or error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The survey was conducted on behalf of the TEACH Coalition/Orthodox Union, Jewish advocacy groups that have gotten involved in recent elections, including the successful primary campaign against Rep. Jamaal Bowman, D-N.Y., earlier this year.
“What was surprising was how close the numbers were between Harris and Trump,” said Maury Litwack, founder of the TEACH coalition. “If you look at the Jewish vote in presidential elections, the Democratic candidate usually wins in the 60s, sometimes in the low 70s, but you don’t see it tracking as closely as you do here.”
The survey found Harris’ net favorability among those surveyed at +10, while Trump’s was -19. On Israel, 53% said they believed Harris supported the Jewish state while 39% said she did not or was actively against the country. For Trump, 44% said he was excellent or good at handling U.S./Israel relations.
Roughly two-thirds of respondents said the Oct. 7 Hamas attack and a rise in antisemitism made them more likely to vote.
Interestingly, the survey found the inclusion of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who is Jewish, as Harris’ running mate would have made essentially no difference in her polling versus Trump.
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Publish date : 2024-08-16 13:24:00
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