The Bottom Line
This week’s weather has been amazing. Something for everyone, ranging from cool mornings to warm afternoons, with mainly dry weather along the way.
Now we look ahead to the weekend. And it comes with a return to unsettled weather, as several disturbances ride through New Jersey’s atmosphere. That means we face increases in cloud cover, humidity, and rain chances.
Let me give you three summary bullet points, upon which I will personally be verifying this unsettled weekend forecast:
1.) Friday will stay completely dry.
2.) Occasional raindrops are likely this weekend, but there will be more dry hours than wet ones.
3.) The wettest part of the weekend will be Sunday afternoon and evening.
There are two alarm bells we have to ring in the weather center for this weekend’s forecast:
1.) Localized downpours may cause flooding, especially on Sunday.
2.) Hurricane Ernesto churning up the Atlantic Ocean, raising rough surf and rip current concerns.
Now let’s dig into the timeline of this unsettled weekend forecast.
Friday
A very nice — albeit very warm — summer day.
Thermometers are once again starting off in the 60s Friday morning. Skies will be bright and sunny for the first half of the day. Then clouds will gently increase through the midday and afternoon hours.
Highs will reach about 85 to 90 degrees Friday afternoon. That is actually a few degrees above normal for mid-August. It will be a little bit humid, but not too steamy.
Friday feels fine! Another nice, warm summer day with completely dry weather from start to finish. (Accuweather)Friday feels fine! Another nice, warm summer day with completely dry weather from start to finish. (Accuweather)
No weather problems during the day, nor through the evening. It will be mostly cloudy tonight, with lows in the upper 60s. A shower may creep in by daybreak Saturday.
Hurricane Ernesto
As of early Friday morning, Hurricane Ernesto is a category two hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. It is forecast to directly impact Bermuda on Saturday.
Hurricane Ernesto will stay several hundred miles east of New Jersey, but will churn up some intense swell and surf this weekend. (Accuweather)Hurricane Ernesto will stay several hundred miles east of New Jersey, but will churn up some intense swell and surf this weekend. (Accuweather)
The storm’s center will stay about 600 miles east of the Jersey Shore — far, far away. But Ernesto is churning up the Atlantic Ocean. And that swell will impact our surf conditions through the weekend.
Friday’s rip current risk is Moderate, increasing to High for Saturday and Sunday. Ocean wave heights will swell as high as 6 feet. The ocean will be very rough throughout the weekend, making swimming and bathing potentially dangerous. Beach erosion and spotty coastal flooding are possible too.
Saturday
Not a perfect day, but far from a washout. Despite occasional bouts of rain, you will catch pockets of “beach weather” too.
Spotty showers are realistically possible at any time on Saturday. The best chance of getting wet will be the early morning (before 9 a.m.) and late night (after 9 p.m.) hours. Nothing crazy, just some raindrops, with maybe a rumble of thunder.
New Jersey will see occasional periods of showers on Saturday, along with plentiful breaks of dry weather too. (Accuweather)New Jersey will see occasional periods of showers on Saturday, along with plentiful breaks of dry weather too. (Accuweather)
Otherwise, Saturday will be mostly cloudy, more humid, and somewhat breezy. High temperatures will come down to around 80 to 85 degrees.
Sunday
Sunday will be the more active (read: wetter and stormier) day of the weekend.
Having said that, we should catch a lull in rainfall activity through Sunday morning and midday. An isolated shower is possible, but they should be few and far between. High temperatures will once again reach the lower 80s or so.
Between about 2 p.m. (to the northwest) and 6 p.m. Sunday, we will have to watch for a bigger push of rain. A surge of humidity will help to fuel those storms, leading to the concern for heavier rain and possibly some gusty winds.
Downpours become a concern as humidity ramps up Sunday. (Accuweather)
Downpours become a concern as humidity ramps up Sunday. (Accuweather)Gusty winds are also possible from stronger storm cells late Sunday. (Accuweather)Gusty winds are also possible from stronger storm cells late Sunday. (Accuweather)
So the weekend will likely end on a stormy note. This is when parts of the state could top an inch of rainfall, leading to ponding and flooding issues. (In other words, big puddles.)
Monday
The final step of this storm system progression will be the arrival of a cold front on Monday.
Once again, the morning hours look fine. Seasonably warm and humid, back in the 80s. You will probably even catch some glimmers of sun.
The most likely timing for spotty rain on Monday will be in the afternoon. Again, just a brief shot of showers and thunderstorms, wrapping up by the late evening hours.
The Extended Forecast
I believe this weekend’s rain will be the last wet weather we see in a while.
An especially cool and dry air mass is set to envelop New Jersey next week, giving a real “fall feel” to the forecast.
The long-range forecast for next week trends quite unusually cool and dry. (Accuweather)The long-range forecast for next week trends quite unusually cool and dry. (Accuweather)
For Tuesday and Wednesday, we could have morning lows in the 50s and afternoon highs only in the 70s. (With crisp dew points in the 40s — that is the driest air we have seen in quite some time.)
80s return late next week. There are no storms or rain chances in sight.
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Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.
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Publish date : 2024-08-16 00:18:00
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