Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
CUSA: +450 · Win Total: 7.5
After a pair of nine-win seasons, Western Kentucky may be on the downslope in Conference USA.
The Hilltoppers were favored to win the conference last season, only to miss the championship game. After earning a trip to the Famous Toastery Bowl, WKU trailed Old Dominion by 28 before completing a wild comeback to win, 38-35, in overtime.
Head coach Tyson Helton saw a severe drop in the offense’s efficiency while continuing to grade near the bottom of FBS in defensive categories.
Quarterback Caden Veltkamp had a breakout performance in the bowl game, connecting on 40 of his 52 passing attempts for 383 yards and five touchdowns against Old Dominion. Despite having just four dropbacks in 2022, he’ll bring the bowl game steam to fall camp.
Transfer quarterback TJ Finley comes to Bowling Green for a fifth season after receiving significant time for LSU, Auburn and Texas State.
Despite a lower average depth of target with the Bobcats last season, Finley racked up over 3,400 yards with a 24:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio while lowering his turnover-worthy play rate to 2.7%.
Wideout Dalvin Smith leads all returning targets with 50 catches last season, with Easton Messer returning to the slot in the pro-style Air Raid hybrid attack.
The quarterback and wide receiver rooms are filled with depth, while the offensive line returns nearly 100 starts thanks to blindside tackle transfer Stacy Wilkins and his 646 snaps from Louisiana Monroe.
The defense projects to have more experience than the offense, but it needs to improve against the rush. Western Kentucky ranked outside the top 120 in Defensive Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Defensive coordinator Tyson Summers failed to get his unit to cause chaos, as the Tops ranked near dead last in Havoc. The good news comes in the secondary with the return of nickel Upton Stout.
Western Kentucky has failed to win eight games just once since 2019 and now has one of the lighter home schedules in Conference USA. The Hilltoppers will be a touchdown favorite in games against Eastern Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, UTEP, Kennesaw State, New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech.
Helton’s team will also be a short favorite against Toledo, Sam Houston and Jacksonville State.
Alabama and Liberty will be tough games, giving Western Kentucky a ceiling of 10 wins. Look for the Tops to take advantage of their schedule.
Pick: Over 7 (-150)
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Publish date : 2024-08-11 14:51:00
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