With the presidential race less than three months away and the political landscape shifting, how are Florida residents poised to vote?
7News partnered exclusively with Suffolk University Boston and USA Today to see how voters feel in the runup to the election and whether the change in the democratic ticket has made a difference.
The poll of 500 likely Florida voters found that if the 2024 election were held today, Former President Donald Trump would get 47 percent of the vote, while Vice President Kamala Harris would get 42 percent of the vote.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an independent, third-party candidate, would get five percent of the vote in Florida, according to the poll results. Three percent of voters remain undecided.
Almost all the voters that were polled said they planned to vote in November because every vote counts.
“The state is red. Trump is winning, but there are places in this poll that make you do a double take,” said Suffolk University Boston Political Research Center Director David Paleologos. “The race is somewhat closer than you would think.”
Paleologos said those third party and undecided Florida voters could be the key to swinging the race in the Sunshine State.
“Five percent right now say they would vote for RFK Jr.. That’s the wild card because, as you know, third-party candidates don’t stay at five percent. They drop over time. The question is where will those voters rotate to?” said Paleologos.
The poll also asked voters who they voted for in the 2020 presidential election.
Forty-five percent of voters said President Joe Biden while 48 percent of voters said Trump. Four percent of voters did not vote.
When asked about the favorability of the current candidates running, Trump has a 50% favorable rating and a 47 percent unfavorable rating among Florida voters.
“Remember, Trump is winning by five points in this poll, but 47 percent of likely voters say they dislike him,” said Paleologos.
Paleologos said Trump should focus on crafting a contrast with the policies of the Biden-Harris administration.
“The strategy for Trump is, he needs to make this a referendum on one administration versus the other,” said Paleologos.
As for Harris, the poll shows 44 percent of Florida voters have a favorable view of her while 50 percent of voters view her unfavorably.
“You’re seeing the Kamala Harris voter is almost as equally excited, or very excited, to vote for her as they are Trump voters voting for Donald Trump,” said Paleologos.
And, according to the poll, Trump seems to be getting the best, as some people think the U.S. is at its worst.
When asked if the country was in the right direction, 27 percent of voters said right direction, while 64 percent of voters said the country was headed in the wrong direction.
“There’s a general feeling in Florida that things are going in the wrong direction and that group of voters is the basis from which Trump has built his coalition,” said Paleologos.
As the countdown begins to Election Day, time is running out for the candidates to make up ground with undecided or swing voters.
According to the poll, 89 percent said their minds are made up on who they will vote for, while only 11 percent of voters said they could be swayed before Election Day.
7News also conducted a new poll on key ballot measures such as recreational marijuana and abortion rights. The results of that poll will be released on Wednesday.
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Publish date : 2024-08-13 08:03:00
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