So far, efforts of the presidents of Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil, all of whom have relatively stable relations with Maduro, appear to have achieved little.
Foreign ministers from the three countries set up a conference with their Venezuelan counterpart on Sunday, with the goal of planning a meeting among Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil and Maduro on Wednesday.
Colombia plans to propose an initial agreement of good faith in which Maduro would release all political prisoners and cease persecution of the opposition in exchange for a partial easing of sanctions by the United States and the European Union, according to a person close to the negotiations, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to share details of the talks.
This would not be a “quid pro quo,” the person said, but rather Maduro would need to make the first gesture of good faith. It is unclear if the Biden administration would support such an agreement.
Maduro’s attorney general has opened a criminal investigation into opposition leaders currently in hiding, including González. While refusing to release official results of a July 28 vote, which it says Maduro won with 51 percent, the government has accused the opposition of falsifying its own printouts of precinct-level outcomes that show González with more than twice Maduro’s tally.
Maduro has called local opposition organizers “terrorists” and has arrested thousands in security sweeps since the elections. He has annulled the passports of activists and journalists and ordered Venezuelans to delete WhatsApp, a primary tool of opposition communication. On Friday, he decreed that the platform X, formerly Twitter, was banned for 10 days after its owner, Elon Musk, called him a “dictator” and a “clown.”
Amid meetings with both government and opposition representatives, the three presidents have issued communiqués exhorting the Maduro-controlled National Electoral Council to release complete results of the precinct-by-precinct vote and allow “impartial verification.”
“The international community is united in our call for Maduro and his representatives to release untampered, detailed tally votes. To date, there is no evidence to back up” the “claim that Maduro won” by the electoral commission, White House National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said Saturday.
“We welcome the engagements from our international partners who are calling for transparency to honor the people’s votes and support a peaceful way forward that respects the will of the Venezuelan people. The United States strongly supports these efforts,” he said.
Two senior administration officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discussdiplomatic matters, noted that the inauguration of a new Venezuelan president is not scheduled until January, leaving time to build pressure on Maduro from within the hemisphere and beyond.
The person close to the talks among Latin American leaders said they believe it is highly unlikely that Maduro will agree to a transfer of power in the short term, or agree to a power-sharing deal with the opposition. But, the person said, the negotiations might establish conditions for a democratic space in Venezuela’s government institutions and for competitive legislative or local elections in 2025.
Agreements along those lines, allowing Maduro to be inaugurated for the third time in January, would likely test US willingness to take a back seat to the Latin American negotiators.
US efforts in the past — including the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign of increased sanctions on Maduro and his government and recognition of then-opposition leader Juan Guaidó as president — did little to change the situation in Venezuela. Historical resentment of US power in the hemisphere grew, along with the exodus of millions of Venezuelan refugees.
“I think we’re comfortable with the position the three have taken right now,” said one senior administration officialon deferring to Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil, all of whom aspire to regional leadership. “They have all said there needs to be transparency in the results,” which is required under Venezuelan electoral law. Their “initiative needs some time to develop.”
The three, in varying degrees, are also important to other American goals in the region, including countering drug and migration flows as well as stemming the hemispheric influence of authoritarian regimes such as Russia, China, and Iran.
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Publish date : 2024-08-11 09:34:00
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