DETROIT, MI — Some of the latest polling averages show Michigan living up to its reputation as a “swing state” in the race for the presidency.
While Republican Donald Trump led President Joe Biden in many polls before the Democrat exited the race last month, his replacement — Vice President Kamala Harris — now leads in one particular agency’s polling average measuring Michigan residents’ opinions.
RealClearPolitics, a media agency that tracks and charts multiple national and state-specific polls, published a polling average this month that showed Harris leading Trump by 2 percentage points (48.3% for Harris vs. 46.3% for Trump) in Michigan. The numbers included data from four polls, collected as late as July 28.
That 2-point lead represented a swing in the Democrats’ direction compared to the previous poll RealClearPolitics published, back when Biden was still a candidate.
Based on seven polls and data collected largely between the Biden debate performance and his exit from the race, RealClearPolitics published a polling average that showed Trump leading Biden by 2.1 percentage points (44% for Trump vs. 41.9% for Biden) in Michigan.
Julio Borquez, an associate professor of political science at University of Michigan-Dearborn, said he would not characterize the turnaround as a “surge” for Harris, though.
“It’s not that she’s gaining momentum or she’s taking over the lead; I would say, things are just returning back to where they’re supposed to be,” Borquez said. “That’s probably the safest way to put it.”
Biden was losing favor with Michigan residents — and plenty of voters elsewhere — following a June debate performance that rattled Democrats.
“Biden’s debate disaster resulted in an erosion of support, and Harris is doing so far a pretty good job in rebuilding that lost support,” Borquez said. “She’s rebounded with young voters, she’s rebounded with African-Americans, and you see a rebound in percentages of Democrats saying they are enthusiastic and that they intend to vote.”
Borquez said polling numbers for Trump have not moved much since Harris replaced Biden on the ticket.
“This is all action on the Democratic side,” Borquez said of the polling trends. “It’s not as if Trump was inheriting a lot of Biden support. Most people have their minds made up about Donald Trump. What we saw (before Harris became the Democratic nominee) was because we haven’t seen a presidential candidate bomb on national TV like that before.”
Many of the polling trends shown in Michigan extend to voters nationwide, where Harris closed the gap in the lead Trump previously built against Biden, the RealClearPolitics data showed.
In the last national polling average RealClearPolitics published before Biden’s exit, Trump led the president by 3.1 percentage points.
With Harris now at the top of the ticket, Trump’s RealClearPolitics national polling averages lead dropped to .7% against his Democratic opponent.
Borquez said such polling data is valuable for showing trends but should not be viewed as an indicator of how constituents will respond in voting booths. After all, many polls during the 2016 presidential election cycle — including polling averages published by RealClearPolitics — showed Democrat Hilary Clinton leading Trump.
Then Trump went on to win the presidency.
“I’m not a big fan of using polling results to predict how people will vote, but it can tell us what’s happening right now,” Borquez said. “It’s real easy to invest more in survey results than what is actually there. Polling is a tool in a toolbox, and as long as you use that tool for what it was intended for, you’re OK.”
Borquez said polling averages between now and the general election could continue to sway back and forth, influenced by news-making developments relating to each candidate.
Borquez said Harris choosing a running mate — a decision her campaign said could be announced this week — could be the next development to move the needle in polling data.
“There’s going to be some short-term buzz, and depending on who (the running mate) is, Harris’ numbers may go up a little or down a little,” Borquez said. “But, within a few weeks, other things will happen that will probably make (the running mate pick) a wash. There’s a (Democratic) convention coming up, and then there may or may not be a debate, and who knows what else will happen that could produce some kind of uptick or downtick.”
The RealClearPolitics polling data showing Harris leading Trump in Michigan comes as the Democrat prepares for her first campaign as a presidential candidate in the state.
Harris will host a rally in Detroit on Wednesday, Aug. 7. Details about the event remain in the planning stages, including the time and venue, campaign officials said.
Since Biden stepped out and Harris stepped in as the Democratic candidate, she has been on the campaign trail in key battleground states. Last week, Harris visited cities including Atlanta and Houston.
While she has yet to visit Michigan as a presidential candidate, the vice president did campaign for Biden in Kalamazoo on July 17, five days before Biden bowed out in her favor.
Detroit has served as a frequent stop for presidential candidates this year.
The week before Biden dropped out, he hosted a rally inside Detroit’s Renaissance High School gymnasium. It was the president’s third trip to Detroit in 2024 and one of his final campaign events before exiting the race.
Trump last campaigned in Detroit in June.
The Republican last visited Michigan on July 21, when he hosted a rally in Grand Rapids.
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Publish date : 2024-08-06 00:00:00
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