Texas A&M football finds themselves in a very interesting spot in more than one respect for the 2024 season. Of course, it’s the first season after the departure of Jimbo Fisher—one of the most visible and divisive coaches in the history of the school.
But that also means it’s the first season for new head coach Mike Elko, who is one of the top defensive minds in the sport, and the talented cadre of assistants he has brought to town with him. Likewise, it’s (hopefully) the first full season of a health Conner Weigman, who is bringing a lot of excitement to the program.
This also is a season where the Aggies’ schedule sets up somewhat favorably, at least in one respect. Every single highly-ranked team (in the preseason, anyway) that the Aggies will play in 2024 will have to come to Kyle to face off with the Maroon and White.
Still, though, it’s not an easy slate. A lot of discussion has been raging about whether it’s realistic to think that Texas A&M football could reach 9 or 10 wins this fall. Provided everyone stays healthy, I think they could meet (or even exceed) that mark.
But here we have another interesting way of evaluating the upcoming season. Kelley Ford, the purveyor of his eponymous KFord advanced statistical profile, has put together a chart showing how many mulligans each team has before they are out of CFP contention—and, conversely, how many upsets other teams require before they are in CFP contention.
‼️NEW GRAPHIC‼️
How to read it:
Georgia is favored in all 12 games, but only needs 9 wins to be in the CFP at-large discussion. So they have 3 mulligans
Michigan is favored in 9 games, but needs 10 wins to be in the CFP at-large discussion. So they need to pull off 1 upset pic.twitter.com/yR6EQIfbbO
— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) July 27, 2024
As you can see from the chart, the Aggies are right in a sweet spot. If they simply win the games in which they will be favored (according to the current KFord ratings, at least), they will be right there in contention for the 12-team College Football Playoff.
To my mind, that means a 9-3 season. I’d wager that Ford has the Aggies favored over either LSU or Missouri as of right now, which I think is pretty fair all things considered. Don’t be shocked if we make it into November with the Aggies squarely in the discussion for the 12-team playoff.
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Publish date : 2024-07-29 21:30:00
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