Yesterday’s Walk-Off Wagers were profitable, as we cashed three out of four. We barely missed on the Arizona Diamondbacks covering the run line, and we’re going back to Arizona today.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Diamondbacks -1.5 (+124) vs. Nationals and Game Total Over 9 (-115)
The Diamondbacks continue to mash, so we are going to continue to back the over in this matchup. Last night the game total was 17, and though the D-Backs won, but didn’t cover, I’m willing to bet they will cover today for this payout.
The Nationals will start lefty Patrick Corbin today. Corbin has an ERA of 5.26 this season, and his xERA is even higher- 5.85, according to Statcast. His exit velocity, xSLG, and hard-hit rate all rank in the bottom 5% of MLB.
Not only are the D-backs Top 6 in average, OBP, and OPS vs. southpaws, while striking out just 20.9% of the time, they have scored an average of 6.27 runs per game in July. That bodes well for the home team tonight.
The Diamondbacks will start righty Ryne Nelson. Nelson is hittable, even for the Nationals, with an xBA and K-rate in the bottom 9% of the league. Washington’s bats were out last night, putting up eight on Arizona.
The Diamondbacks bullpen has been top-10 this month, while the Nationals pen blew a lead in the bottom of the ninth allowing five runs and the win to the Diamondbacks.
Corbin Carroll walked it off with a homer in the ninth. That has me looking at the over for the D-Backs to cover the run line once again.
Home games for Arizona have gone over the listed total 60.4% of the time this year.
Cal Quantrill has allowed just five earned runs across 21 first innings pitched, for an ERA of 2.14. That should work out fine vs. an Angels team that is scoring just 21.7% of the time in the first inning this season and is averaging just 3.48 runs per game this month.
Griffin Canning has an ERA of 4.91 in the first inning at home this season, but that’s why we won’t have to pay too much juice for this under.
The Rockies are scoring 27% of the time in the first, and averaging just 3.55 runs per game this month outside of Coors Stadium. We’ll bet Canning can hold it together in the first.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Source link : https://www.si.com/betting/mlb-best-bets-today-diamondbacks-continue-mash-nrfi-rockies-angels
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Publish date : 2024-07-30 12:49:22
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