Let’s talk pitchers on Saturday.
Joe Ryan has quietly put together a strong season for the postseason contending Twins and now gets to face a team he has dominated for much of his career in the Tigers. Can Ryan keep it rolling? I’m targetting his prop on Saturday as well as two other pitchers in a negative light, keep reading to find out who.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Joe Ryan OVER 18.5 Outs Recorded
Ryan has looked the part against the Tigers in his career, posting a 4-1 record with a 3.47 ERA. He has pitched at least five innings in all but his first start against the Tigers, including six or more in half of them.
The Twins starter has been elite all season, posting a 3.65 ERA with an xERA of 2.95. He also does a great job of limiting walks, a sub-four percent walk rate on the year which is in the 96th percentile.
Against a Tigers team that has struggled to hit all season, 22nd in OPS, I’m happy to shoot for a higher end outcome on Ryan’s out prop.
Ronel Blanco UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded
Blanco has been a regression candidate all season, posting an xERA far higher than his actual ERA, 3.78 vs. 2.75. He has gone under this mark in five of his last 10 starts, so current form indicates more of a coin flip than not, and the matchup is as tough as any with the Astros set to face the Dodgers on Saturday.
Houston’s starter is prone to walking batters, he’s in the 31st percentile in walk rate, and can find himself in trouble against the loaded Dodgers roster that is tops in OPS.
I’ll go under on Blanco’s outs prop at + money.
Tyler Anderson UNDER 18.5 Outs Recorded
Anderson will run into a buzzsaw that is the A’s offense on Saturday.
Oakland is hitting better than every team in the big leagues since the All-Star break, which is a tough ask for Anderson to keep up his unsustainable start to the season.
The lefty has a 2.91 ERA, but an xERA of 4.32 with an incredible ability to generate soft contact on his offspeed pitches. He has a hard-hit percentage in the 85th percentile with some of the best stuff on offpseed pitches, ranking in the 100th percentile in terms of run value.
However, I’m going to side with harsh regression continuing for the left hander against a surging offense. Oakland is 10th in OPS against left handed pitching and I believe they can dish out some hurt on Saturday.
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Publish date : 2024-07-27 12:17:09
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