TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — What a difference a year makes. This time last year, 92.8 percent of the Alabama fan base expected Nick Saban to coach for one to six more seasons, and the most desired replacements included names like Lane Kiffin, DeMeco Ryans and Steve Sarkisian. Few, if anyone, anticipated Saban’s retirement in January and Kalen DeBoer, who was entering his second season at Washington in 2023, replacing him.
Now DeBoer is arguably the SEC’s biggest storyline at conference media days this week, and according to The Athletic’s 2024 fan survey results, the expectations for this season haven’t dropped much, if at all.
We had nearly 600 respondents answering various questions about Alabama athletics’ past, present and future. One of the highlights was reading through your favorite Saban memories, from “Rocky Block” in 2009 to Saban’s countless sideline outbursts, famously toward quarterback A.J. McCarron and Kiffin and some from Saban’s early days, including his first A-Day game in 2007 and the recruitment of players like Julio Jones and Mark Ingram.
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Here are a few more personal anecdotes:
“The 2008 Iron Bowl. Having lost six years in a row, coming out and winning 36-0 really felt like the program had finally stepped into a new era. And I still get chills thinking about Siran Stacy bringing out the game ball.” — Allen R
“Winning the national title at the Rose Bowl (in 2009). It’s the most iconic venue in America, and it lived up to the hype. Saban took us to the biggest stage possible, and we never got off of it after that.” — Anonymous
“The 2015 national championship in Arizona. My brother was a Clemson grad, and I work at UA and am a huge Bama fan. He got us tickets, but I had to sit in the middle of a sea of Clemson fans decked in orange. When Derrick Henry broke that first long run for a touchdown, I jumped up and down, screaming “Run, Derrick, run Derrick.” My brother reached up to grab me by the seat of my pants, intending to pull me down. Too late. Several beers splatted into my chest and splayed all over me. Suffice to say that I sat on my hands and screamed in my head when we won the onside kick, the most perfect onside kick I have ever seen. “ — Doug M
“My favorite memory is a more personal one having the opportunity to have a one-on-one conversation with him for a couple minutes. Unlike many similar men I’ve spoken to, he was kind and genuine.” — Jon W.
Now, Saban is on the media side, serving as a commentator for ESPN in Dallas this week. He offered his perspective about this season’s team.
“I think they’ve got question marks in the secondary, especially at corner,” Saban said during the “SEC Now” broadcast on Monday morning. “Getting (Kadyn Proctor) back probably was important because they were a little bit weak at tackle.
“I think depth of the team will be the biggest question. If Alabama can stay healthy, I think they have enough good first-line players to compete against anybody.”
Now, on to the survey:
From the day Saban retired, how pleased are you with the transition to DeBoer?
SelectionPercentage
Very pleased
84.1
Somewhat pleased
11.4
Neutral/Not enough information
3.8
Displeased/Very displeased
0.7
It’s one of the biggest questions in college football (if not the biggest): What will Alabama look like in the post-Saban era? To this point, most of the responders are at least somewhat pleased with the transition. Understandably, there won’t/can’t be full belief until the results on the field play out this fall and into the future, but it’s hard to imagine a smoother transition. That’s particularly true on the recruiting trail where Alabama holds the No. 2 class nationally and the highest player rating average at 94.68, according to 247Sports.
What would constitute a successful season for Alabama in 2024?
SelectionPercentage
National championship
11.2
National Championship Game appearance
12.9
College Football Playoff semifinal/quarterfinal game appearance
57.6
College Football Playoff first-round appearance
18.3
The change to the 12-team Playoff likely means that Alabama is Playoff or bust annually, which isn’t different from the four-team era. It’s to be determined where Alabama will land in the preseason polls, but coaching/roster turnover aside, the expectation hasn’t changed.
This expectation is an accurate representation of the roster. Alabama has the second-highest blue-chip ratio (number of players who were four- or five-star recruits) in the country at 88 percent, according to Bud Elliott of 247Sports, and it’s the highest in the SEC. One piece of history that works in Alabama’s favor: Excluding the 2020 COVID season, DeBoer has averaged 10.3 wins in his first year/first normal offseason as a coach (Sioux Falls, Fresno State, Washington).
What are your expectations for Alabama in the SEC?
SelectionPercentage
SEC champion
25.3
SEC championship appearance
44.5
No championship, make Playoff as an at-large
30.2
The SEC preseason poll isn’t out yet, but there’s a real possibility that Alabama won’t be favored to reach the SEC Championship Game. To put that into perspective, the Tide were picked to win the SEC in every season since 2015 except last season, and they won anyway. This year’s schedule is much more daunting than last season with home matchups against Georgia and Missouri and road games against Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma.
Who will be Alabama’s MVP?
SelectionPercentage
Jalen Milroe
92.0
One year ago, Jalen Milroe collected only 7.9 percent of the vote (Dallas Turner was the overwhelming winner), but now he is far and away the choice. His story is well known, from early season obscurity to leading Alabama to the SEC championship and being named a permanent team captain.
There will be questions about adjusting to a new system and having different responsibilities, but Milroe is one of the top players in the nation. He is the highest-returning Heisman Trophy vote-getter from last season and has the fourth-highest odds (+1000, BetMGM).
“The adversity aspect of it, it’s much needed,” Milroe said. “I don’t shy away from adversity. That’s a great opportunity to get better as a player mentally and physically and use it as an opportunity to grow. I can say that I have the right support system around me. Each offensive staff member has been great, Coach DeBoer is very confident in me, and our offense to go out and play to our standard. So I’d say, this has been a great journey that has allowed me to grow as a player.”
The next-highest vote-getter in the poll was running back Justice Haynes.
Jalen Milroe led Alabama to the SEC title and a College Football Playoff appearance last year. (Jeffrey Vest / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Who will be Alabama’s breakout player (returning players only)?
SelectionPercentage
Justice Haynes
37.4
Jam Miller
11.0
Ryan Williams
5.8
Kendrick Law
4.9
Kobe Prentice
4.4
This question had the most variance, with more than 15 players selected but Haynes and Jam Miller leading the way. Alabama fans have been bullish on the running backs since last season (the backs were selected as the best position group in the 2023 poll), and expectations remain high for the new Alabama duo. It’s also interesting that five offensive players lead the way, likely because Alabama is led by an offensive coach.
What’s the strongest position group on this year’s team?
SelectionPercentage
Quarterback
16.5
Running back
46.3
Wide receiver
4.2
Tight end
0.9
Offensive line
14.7
Defensive line
4.6
Edge/Outside linebacker
4.2
Inside linebacker
4.4
Secondary
1.7
Specialist
2.4
There’s no surprise here, as the running backs lead the way. It’s a credit to position coach Robert Gillespie for the position’s retention and development. Quarterback was voted the weakest position group last year, but now it’s the second-biggest strength. Perhaps the most underrated team strength, at 2.4 percent is the special teams unit, which could boast arguably the best kicker/punter combination in college football, plus some exciting return options in Kendrick Law, Jaylen Mbakwe and Ryan Williams.
What’s the weakest position group on this year’s team?
SelectionPercentage
Quarterback
1.7
Running back
2.2
Wide receiver
13.6
Tight end
7.3
Offensive line
9.0
Defensive line
6.5
Edge/Outside linebacker
4.5
Inside linebacker
1.5
Secondary
47.7
Specialists
6.0
The responders agree with Saban. Malachi Moore is the lone returning starter, but he’s playing safety instead of in the slot as he did in 2023. From that lens, Alabama will have five new starters in this year’s secondary. Alabama went after defensive backs heavily in the transfer portal, so there’s good playing experience but not much at Alabama.
Who will be Alabama’s most impactful transfer?
SelectionPercentage
WR Germie Bernard
27.8
OL Parker Brailsford
20.2
DB Domani Jackson
9.2
DB DaShawn Jones
2.8
K Graham Nicholson
10.5
DL LT Overton
1.3
OL Kadyn Proctor
22.2
DB Keon Sabb
6.1
Given that the responders see wide receiver as the biggest question mark offensively, it’s no surprise that Germie Bernard got the top vote. He and Milroe flashed their connection via A-Day. Bernard was a contributor at Washington last season, and the institutional knowledge of the system has been an asset. If Alabama is to meet expectations, Bernard must be a key part. Collectively, responders see Parker Brailsford and Proctor as the biggest factors, which makes sense.
Who will be Alabama’s most impactful player from the 2024 recruiting class?
SelectionPercentage
DB Zabien Brown
8.8
DB Red Morgan
5.8
WR Caleb Odom
12.5
WR Ryan Williams
70.3
Other
2.6
A generational high school player in Alabama and DeBoer’s first recruiting win, Williams is entering the program with a special level of hype. He will need to add mass to his body and adjust to college physicality, but his traits are off the charts. Williams can help Alabama’s offense and the special teams as a returner, so how the staff utilizes him early on will be interesting.
How do you feel about Alabama’s NIL infrastructure, in all sports, today compared to one year ago?
SelectionPercentage
Better
46.8
Neutral/Haven’t been swayed either way
51.0
Worse
2.2
More than 50 percent of the responders are still neutral or unswayed about Alabama’s NIL efforts, but the results are a vast improvement from a year ago. Yea Alabama membership has grown tremendously since DeBoer took over, and the “all sports” caveat was meant to include men’s basketball, where the Tide signed one of the nation’s best high school and portal classes while retaining Mark Sears and Grant Nelson. Let’s revisit this a year from now.
What’s your level of confidence that Nick Sheridan and co-coordinator JaMarcus Shephard will improve the offense?
SelectionPercentage
Extremely confident
38.4
Somewhat confident
48.2
Neutral/Undecided
12.9
Not confident
0.5
Understanding that the offensive structure is “DeBoer’s offense,” there’s confidence in Sheridan and Shephard. Last season was a down year by Alabama’s standards as it finished 24th nationally in points per game and 58th in total offense. An upgrade in the offensive coaching staff, an improved offensive line and a more confident Milroe should add up to a better unit in 2024.
What’s your level of confidence that Kane Wommack and co-coordinators Colin Hitschler and Maurice Linguist will improve the defense?
SelectionPercentage
Extremely confident
15.7
Somewhat confident
41.9
Neutral/Undecided
34.1
Not very confident
7.8
No confidence
0.5
There’s more skepticism about Alabama’s defense. There’s coaching experience on that side with two former head coaches (Wommack, Linguist) and defensive coordinator (Hitschler) leading the way. But a scheme change and player turnover have created a wait-and-see approach for this season.
Has DeBoer answered your questions about his recruiting ability?
SelectionPercentage
Yes
80.9
Too early to tell
18.8
No
0.4
This was DeBoer’s biggest question in January, but the responders are convinced about his recruiting ability. It’s hard not to be as Alabama has plenty of recruiting momentum: There’s a legitimate chance this will be the No. 1 class when it’s all said and done, but closing strong is critical, which is why there are still some questions.
What are your expectations for Alabama recruiting moving forward?
SelectionPercentage
Top 3 annually
33.2
Top 5 annually
52.5
Top 10 annually
13.7
Top 10-15 annually
0.7
That leads to the expectations moving forward. Saban was strong in recruiting with a staggering 2.3 national class average during his career with 10 No. 1 classes. That type of run may never be replicated by any program, but the responders’ expectations haven’t dropped off much. Given where Saban left the program, that’s a fair ask.
When do you expect DeBoer to win a national championship?
SelectionPercentage
1-2 seasons
33.8
3-4 seasons
62.0
Fifth season or later
4.2
On the field, there’s a similar question: Will DeBoer keep pace with the expectation created by Saban to win championships? The responders believe the first championship will happen relatively soon, and the expanded Playoff both helps and hurts DeBoer’s chances. It’s a longer road to winning it all, but a 12-team Playoff almost guarantees that Alabama will have a chance every year.
Which of Saban’s six national championship teams was his best?
SelectionPercentage
2009
6.5
2011
9.3
2012
14.2
2015
7.4
2017
8.8
2020
53.8
The image of Landon Dickerson carrying Saban was a popular choice here, which was the icing on the cake for the 2020 team. It’s a team that faced challenges unlike any other in history and was one of the most dominant and decorated teams of all time.
It was undefeated with an average margin of victory of 29 points, a Saban-era record. It had two Heisman finalists, the Heisman winner, six individual national award winners, including the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line, the Broyles Award for best assistant and 10 NFL draft picks (six first-rounders).
Which team was the best non-national championship Saban team?
SelectionPercentage
2008
1.9
2010
9.7
2013
11.3
2014
3.2
2016
22.7
2018
14.5
2019
10.9
2021
8.2
2022
9.0
2023
1.9
Perhaps the most competitive question, there were several non-championship teams that responders thought were Saban’s best. But the 2016 group was littered with veteran star players like Jonathan Allen and Cam Robinson and future stars like Jalen Hurts and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Alabama, 14-1 that season, narrowly lost the national championship to Clemson in the final seconds, adding another chapter to one of the best, most fun mini-rivalries that we’ve seen in modern college football.
What is your favorite Saban game/memory?
SelectionPercentage
Second-and-26 against Georgia
25.5
Onside kick against Clemson
16.5
Fourth-and-31 against Auburn
5.7
2011 national championship over LSU
4.2
2013 national championship over Notre Dame
4.2
“Was that a great game or what?!” — It wasn’t just a great game, according to reader Steve K., the Tua Tagovailoa-to-DeVonta Smith walk-off touchdown in overtime was the greatest moment in Alabama football history. That play aside, the decision to insert Tagovailoa into the game at halftime resonated when reading the responders’ feedback, just one of several iconic in-game decisions by Saban, just like the legendary onside kick against Clemson in 2015.
Fittingly, four of the five top choices were national champions, and the only one that isn’t is an Iron Bowl win. A few others that just missed the cut: Hurts’ redemption in the 2018 SEC championship, the 2009 SEC championship win over Florida and T.J. Yeldon’s game-winning touchdown catch and run against LSU in 2012.
Who is the greatest player in the Saban era?
SelectionPercentage
RB Derrick Henry
31.3
WR Julio Jones
18.4
WR DeVonta Smith
12.1
QB Tua Tagovailoa
6.8
DB Minkah Fitzpatrick
6.5
As many noted, it’s too hard to choose one. But if there was a starting five, this is who would make the cut. “King” Henry occupies the top spot by a large margin as perhaps the most dominant force, particularly in his Heisman season, while Jones is probably the most influential player of the Saban era. Ironically, four of the top five players are offensive, which speaks to Saban’s coaching prowess.
Outside of Georgia, what is Alabama’s toughest game this season?
SelectionPercentage
at Wisconsin
2.0
at Tennessee
30.9
at LSU
53.0
vs. Missouri
3.7
at Oklahoma
10.4
To no surprise, the two biggest selections are the two places where Alabama suffered losses in 2022 — at LSU and Tennessee. The annual intrigue in those games is understood. Add a first-year head coach and 12-team Playoff implications, and we’re likely headed for more great chapters in those rivalries.
What will be Alabama’s 2024 regular-season record?
SelectionPercentage
12-0
4.1
11-1
35.4
10-2
55.2
9-3
5.3
It has been a consistent theme throughout the results, but fan expectations haven’t waned just because Saban is gone. A resounding 95 percent of responders expect a double-digit win season, which should be enough for a Playoff berth.
Is Alabama still “the standard” of college football?
SelectionPercentage
Yes
78.4
No
21.6
We asked this question a year ago, and 75.1 percent of the responders said yes. That hasn’t changed much a year later. It was a looming question last year with Georgia’s ascension, but Alabama re-planted that flag in the 2023 SEC championship. It’s a question once again now that Saban has retired, but Alabama’s overall claim as a program hasn’t weakened, not without actual losses on the field. Sept. 28 in Tuscaloosa is the next benchmark for this question.
Which Alabama program will win a national championship next?
SelectionPercentage
Football
72.1
Men’s basketball
27.9
A fun question to end the survey, pitting the chances of the rising basketball program with the powerhouse football program. The men’s basketball program will be a favorite to win it all this upcoming season, more than the football team. When has that ever been the case?
Still, the responders side with football by an overwhelming margin. Men’s basketball may have a better chance in a one-year vacuum, but tournament basketball is much more volatile than Playoff football. The fact that it can be a legitimate question speaks to the growth of the program under Nate Oats.
What a great time it is to be a fan.
(Photo of Kalen DeBoer: Gary Cosby Jr. / USA Today)
Source link : https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5641478/2024/07/17/alabama-football-kalen-deboer-nick-saban/
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Publish date : 2024-07-17 03:00:00
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