Wisconsin enters year two of the Luke Fickell era badly in need of a spark.
Excitement was at an all-time high after his hire during the 2023 offseason. Fickell was a big name in the coaching circles after years of success at Cincinnati, and his first offseason at the helm included a host of new quarterback transfers, the hire of air raid offensive coordinator Phil Longo and a complete makeover of the program.
Related: Full recap of power rankings for every Big Ten football position group entering 2024 season
The problem: expectations got too high entering the 2023 season. Despite facing one of the easiest schedules in the Big Ten, Wisconsin limped to a 7-5 record including demoralizing losses to Northwestern and Indiana. That occurred as Longo’s air raid struggled throughout the season — the team only averaging 23.5 points per game.
2023 made it clear that an instant turnaround was too much to ask, even of a head coach with Fickell’s pedigree. But that all leads to a 2024 season that must see clear improvements and the start of a path toward success.
Related: Where Wisconsin lands in USA TODAY Sports 2024 Big Ten football preseason poll
A run to the newly expanded College Football Playoff would be a lofty expectation as the Badgers face a schedule that includes four of the Big Ten’s top six teams (Oregon, Penn State, Iowa and USC) plus top-ranked Alabama. Either way, the program’s performance against that gauntlet schedule will give a glimpse at where the Fickell era is trending as the Big Ten enters a new era.
So, with Big Ten media days ongoing and the season fast-approaching, here are the six most likely scenarios for Wisconsin’s 2024 football season:
The Badgers effectively tread water
Oct 21, 2023; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell with his players during the first half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Record: 6-6, with wins over South Dakota, Western Michigan, Purdue, Northwestern, Nebraska and Minnesota
Context: There is a realistic scenario where the 2024 Badgers look a lot like the 2023 team. That would mean continued growing pains in the transition to Phil Longo’s air raid, a good-but-not-great defense and more struggles in the third and fourth quarters. It could lead to wins in the nonconference (minus Alabama), decisive victories against the inferior competition (Purdue, Northwestern, etc) and losses to most of the good teams it plays (USC, Oregon, Penn State, etc).
This would be a disappointment after yet another offseason of change and progression. It would signal that the program needs a lot more than just a few tweaks before it starts contending for the conference.
Improvements are made, but not in the final record
Oct 28, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell watches from the sideline during the second half of the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Camp Randall Stadium. Ohio State won 24-10.
Record: 7-5, with wins over South Dakota, Western Michigan, Purdue, Northwestern, Rutgers, Nebraska and Minnesota
Context: Wisconsin could make clear improvements on both sides of the football, yet finish with a similar record to last year’s 7-5 mark. That is due to a significant increase in schedule difficulty, as the team plays ESPN SP+’s No. 3 (Oregon), No. 5 (Alabama), No. 7 (Penn State), No. 21 (USC) and No. 22 (Iowa) teams.
Fans should sign up for the scenario that sees Longo’s offense begin to click while Fickell’s defense takes a clear step forward with new personnel, but the team still falls short against the top teams on its schedule. 2024 should be about improvements more than anything else.
A highly volatile season, but a similar conclusion
Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell talks to an official during the NCAA football game against the Purdue Boilermakers, Friday, Sept. 22, 2023, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Wisconsin Badgers won 38-17.
Record: 7-5, with wins over South Dakota, Western Michigan, Purdue, Oregon, Penn State Rutgers and Minnesota
Context: This would certainly be the most interesting outcome. What if Wisconsin topples both Oregon and Penn State at home, notching two program-defining victories…but then loses to Northwestern, Nebraska and Iowa? The variance in performance would be startling and would make it tough to evenly evaluate the season.
This is not the most likely outcome. But it’s the most fascinating one by far.
The bottom falls out
Nov 11, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell is shown during the fourth quarter of their game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
Record: 4-8, with wins over South Dakota, Western Michigan, Purdue and Northwestern
Context: A worst-case scenario always exists. That is especially the case as Wisconsin’s schedule gets tougher and its place in the new Big Ten landscape becomes an unknown.
This scenario would likely be due to substantial injuries at key positions, plus a steep regression from the program’s usual steady performance. It would be bad enough that change would occur — likely at the coordinator and assistant positions.
The Badgers break through
Sep 2, 2023; Madison, WI, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Chez Mellusi (1) runs 89 yards for a touchdown against the Buffalo Bulls during the the third quarter at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
Record: 9-3, with wins over South Dakota, Western Michigan, USC, Purdue, Rutgers, Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska and Minnesota
Context: Wisconsin taking a substantial step forward would mean a 9-3 record and fringe College Football Playoff consideration. If one or two of those wins are against Alabama, Oregon or Penn State, the program could sneak in to one of the final seeds.
This should be considered the best-case realistic scenario for the Badgers’ season. It means reestablished success against rival Iowa, a big-time win over USC and solid victories against the inferior competition on the schedule. It would importantly point to a bright future under Fickell and his staff.
Cinderella run
Oct 14, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell leads the football team onto the field for warmups prior to the game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Record: 11-1, with wins over South Dakota, Western Michigan, Alabama, USC, Purdue, Rutgers, Northwestern, Iowa, Penn State, Nebraska and Minnesota
Context: Wisconsin will have to do a lot right to become a cinderella team in 2024. But TCU gave the blueprint a few years ago. All it takes is exceptional performance in every tight game, a few good bounces and a peak performance against top competition.
Wisconsin somehow finishing 2024 with wins over Alabama, USC, Iowa and Penn State would mean that Fickell’s program is on the cusp of rising into the sport’s elite tier.
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Publish date : 2024-07-24 08:30:00
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