North Carolina continues to work towards an ACC regular season title with a tough road trip against Virginia.
The Woos have been a tale of two teams on the road and at home, will North Carolina be able to handle what’s been an impossible task of winning in Charlottesville? Let’s break down this high level ACC matchup on Saturday using FanDuel Sportsbook’s odds!
New FanDuel Sportsbook users need to take advantage of this new user bonus! If you sign up below and win your first bet of just $5, you will get $150 in bonus bets! Get started below.
North Carolina
Armando Bacot: Bacot has had some defining moments against Virginia, including scoring 29 points in a home win against the Woos back on January 8th last season. The big man has been able to break through against the normally stout Virginia defense, can he put it together on the road against the Cavaliers?
Virginia
Isaac McKneely: The sophomore is the one to watch on the UVA offense, shooting 46% from three on a high rate of attempts this season (north of five per game). UNC’s defense is still tops in three-point percentage allowed, but be careful of that as the Tar Heels are still allowing a ton of uncontested threes this season, ShotQuality has the team 331st in open three rate.
This is a battle of two prevailing thoughts heading into Saturday’s tilt.
One is that the UNC defense can’t possibly continue to contain opponents from beyond the arc, holding teams to the lowest three-point percentage in ACC play, but the other is that Virginia’s limited offense can’t continue to shoot nearly 40% from beyond the arc.
Despite either being true, I believe that the under is the best course of action for this matchup, mainly because of how both defenses play.
North Carolina’s defense doesn’t pressure the ball and turn opponents over, but do an incredible job on the glass. UNC is the best rebounding team in the country, but the team is 299th in generating turnovers. I believe that Virginia, who is bottom 10 in the country in adjusted tempo, per KenPom, will be able to hunt for the best shot and take time off the clock, opting to avoid a shootout against an explosive UNC offense.
Meanwhile, while Bacot has had plenty of success against the Woos in the past, the Virginia defense is incredibly reliable, ninth in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and incredibly compact, allowing a three-point rate north of 40% and allowing the 27th lowest two-point field percentage.
I think this game is more of a rockfight than being projected. For what it’s worth, the three meetings in Charlottesville since Hubert Davis took over the Tar Heels, the five games have averaged 124 points.
PICK: UNDER 130.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed’s bets here!
Source link : https://keepingitheel.com/posts/north-carolina-vs-virginia-prediction-odds-key-players-saturday-feb-24-target-total-01hqbwc0sr62
Author :
Publish date : 2024-02-23 03:00:00
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source.