President Biden’s abrupt decision to end his presidential candidacy and endorse Vice President Harris has drawn decidedly mixed reactions from a group of voters whose decisions in November could determine the outcome of the 2024 election.
“I feel relief that there is a better candidate than Biden or [former president Donald] Trump,” said a 26-year-old Arizonan. “As a Democrat, I am re-energized and more hopeful for the upcoming election.”
A 47-year-old Republican-leaning independent from Michigan strongly disagreed. “I wouldn’t give [Harris] an entry-level job, let alone hire her for POTUS,” or president of the United States.
The two were among 152 registered voters from six battleground states who responded to an email request from The Washington Post and George Mason University’s Schar School seeking their reactions to the dramatic development in the presidential election. The Arizona Democrat said they will now definitely support Harris; this spring they said they would only “probably” vote for Biden. The Michigan independent said he will not vote for Harris but also probably will not vote for Trump.
Overall, 55 of the 152 voterswho responded said positive things about Harris’s candidacy, 53 offered negative views, 31 were neither fully positive nor fully negative and 13 were simply unsure what they thought about the stunning news. Those contacted were asked to provide their immediate reactions confidentially, as is typical in polls, allowing them to offer candid responses.
All of the voters who participated in the poll are part of a large pool of people The Post has classified as “Deciders,” voterswho either had not been firmly committed to either Biden or Trump or whose participation in November is not wholly predictable because of their age, voting history or both. The Post’s Deciders live in one of six keyswing states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
An earlier survey of these voters found them to be younger and more non-White than the electorate at large, and also more dissatisfied than the electorate as a whole about the choice of Biden versus Trump.
Many said neither Trump nor Biden fully represented their views. Now theymust assess a different campaign, one in which Harris appears likely to become the Democratic nominee and Trump’s campaign retooling to face a different opponent.
“Fantastic idea,” said a 48-year-old woman from Arizona. “She is competent, capable and a great candidate for president.” A 20-year-old woman from Michigan said of Harris, “She cares about all people who live in this country and she cares about their values as well.”
Other Democrats were more cautious. A 41-year-old White Arizona woman who said she definitely will support Harris nonetheless worried about what kind of candidate Harris will be. “Up to now she hasn’t demonstrated a public strength as a leader,” she said, though noting that she would love to see a woman as president.
A 31-year-old Black Democratic woman from Georgia offered another concern. “I’m not sure racism and misogyny would ever allow her to be elected,” she said. But she said that she will definitely vote for Harris if she becomes the nominee.
Another Democrat, however, cited Harris’s gender as a potential obstacle. “I don’t know if this country is ready for a woman President yet and this election is too important to take a chance,” said a 74-year-old White woman from Arizona.
The importance that Democrats see in the outcome in November was illustrated by the response from a 72-year-old White woman from Pennsylvania. She said she was “not sure she can handle the job.” Nevertheless, she said she will definitely support Harris as the Democratic nominee.
National polls have found large majorities of Democrats are satisfied with Harris replacing Biden.
Among Republican Deciders, the reactions were almost uniformly negative, calling Harris unqualified or not accomplished.
“No way! She will be worse than Biden,” said a 70-year-old White Republican man from Michigan.
“I think that Biden made the correct choice dropping out as he was no longer capable of running,” said a 30-year-old White Republican woman in Arizona, “but I believe there are better candidates than Kamala.” This voter will not vote for Harris but said she probably will not vote for Trump either.
A 60-year-old Hispanic Republican woman from Michigan was even more negative toward Harris. “She [will] send our country into further chaos and would never be taken seriously as a leader,” the Trump supporter said. “World War III would continue to loom over us and there, most likely, would be a civil war among us.”
Independents among the Deciders offered a range of views, from fully positive to sharply negative.
“I am definitely voting now,” said a 37-year-old Black female voter from Georgia. “Wasn’t going to vote, but since she is running, definitely voting.” And the Democratic-leaning independent said she was definitely voting for Harris.
If this voter is representative of other Deciders, Democrats could benefit. The earlier survey of these voters found that some groups who were part of Biden’s 2020 coalition, especially those younger or of color, were not enthusiastic about voting for him in 2024 or even voting.
“I am thrilled that this is the outcome,” said a 24-year-old White Democratic-leaning independent from Wisconsin. “I wanted Kamala in the first place.”
“Harris is by far a more appealing candidate in terms of age and policy positions more in line with people my age,” said a 26-year-old White Pennsylvania man who is a Democratic-leaning independent.
A 27-year-old Black woman in Georgia who is a Democratic-leaning independent said simply, “I am nervous but excited.” A 20-year-old White Democratic-leaning independent man from Arizona put it this way: “I am reluctant about her abilities as president and morals as a person, but I will vote for her if I have to.”
Other independents, particularly those who lean Republican, gave Harris negative marks.
“She is worse than Biden,” said a 75-year-old Nevada female voter who is a Republican-leaning independent. This voter was critical of Harris on the issue of immigration and her record overall. “She has done nothing impressive in the last 4years,” she said.
“Harris is incompetent and unqualified for her current role,” said a 45-year-old Michigan man who is a Republican-leaning independent firmly in Trump’s corner. “She was only selected for VP for racial reasons. Her record is pathetic. Unless a better candidate is selected, I expect Trump to win in a landslide.”
These Deciders see some differences between Biden and Harris, though mostly related to age and physical and mental strength. On policy, they see little difference, although at least one said Harris probably leans further left than does the president.
“She is more mentally and physically fit for the office at this time. But she is also more nefarious and has a track record of inadequacy when it comes to issues handed to her,” said a 28-year-old Hispanic woman who is an independent and said she will probably be voting for Trump.
But Democratic-leaning independents were more positive toward the current vice president.
“Her age is a huge factor,” said a 26-year-old White man from Pennsylvania who is an Democratic-leaningindependent and expects to vote for Harris. “America needs younger leaders who understand the problems of today as opposed to leaders of the past staying the course.”
This voter was one of several who said Harris’s age, gender and biracial heritage make her a more appealing candidate than Biden.
A 44-year-old independent White woman from Arizona said that Harris is “more eloquent when speaking [and] more aligned with my demographic.” A 20-year-old Democratic-leaning independent White woman from Georgia said that because Harris is part of a minority group and a child of immigrants, “she can draw more support from other minority groups compared to Biden.”
It is too early to know if that assessment is correct.
A 39-year-old Black Democratic man from Wisconsin said Harris hadn’t “done anything to impress me.”
Several Republicans said they saw no real differences between Biden and Harris on policy. “I don’t think she has anything that separates her from Biden,” said a 21-year-old Nevada Republican, a White woman who will definitely support Trump. A 40-year-old White woman from Arizona said “Harris is much more coherent but both are terrible.”
A 23-year-old White man from Michigan who is a Democratic-leaning independent summed up how many in the Democratic Party seemed to feel on Monday. “Risky overall, but at the same time likely the best bet for a rebound.”
This Deciders flash poll was conducted by The Washington Post and George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government July 21-22, 2024, among a sample of 152 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin who turn out sporadically or were uncommitted to Biden or Trump this spring. Respondents completed the survey online via an email link. The sample was drawn from the participants of a Deciders survey conducted in April and May, which was drawn from an L2 database of registered voters in each state. Deciders are defined as those who voted in only one of the last two presidential elections; are between ages 18 and 25; registered to vote since 2022; did not plan to vote for either Biden or Trump in the May survey; or switched their support between 2016 and 2020.
Read more about the Deciders poll here.
Source link : https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/23/what-key-state-voters-think-about-kamala-harris-replacing-joe-biden/
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Publish date : 2024-07-23 09:17:13
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