Making the right draft choice can be the difference between winning and losing, both in the National Football League and in the world of fantasy football. Case in point. In the 2020 NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs needed a starting running back and drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the 32nd overall pick (Round 1). He went ahead of Jonathan Taylor, who was picked by the Indianapolis Colts with the 41st overall pick (Round 2).
In his four years, Edwards-Helaire has failed to rush for more than 803 yards in a single season. He’s failed to hit the 1,000-yard mark in terms of scrimmage yards in each of the last three seasons. On the flip side, Taylor has rushed for over 1,000 yards twice. That includes a 2021 season when the talented back won the rushing title (1,811 yards).
Obviously, the Chiefs chose poorly.
The same sort of thing happens in fantasy football. If you make the wise choice, it can lead you to a championship. Make the wrong one, and you can be left feeling like a bum.
With that said, it’s time to bring back our “Making the Call” series here at Sports Illustrated. In the series, Jen Piacenti and I will be looking at two players from the same position who have a near identical average draft position (ADP) and tell you who you should pick.
Since we’re talking running backs, let’s compare Isiah Pacheco and Rachaad White. In the National Fantasy Football Championships, they’re coming off the board within five picks of one another, both in the third round of drafts. Pacheco (RB11) is going at 28.2 overall over the last two weeks, while White (RB12) is being picked on average, at 33.2 overall.
So, who’s the right call? Let’s break it down.
In 2023, the Chiefs ranked 27th in run percentage and ran the football 417 times. That was the eighth-fewest in the league. Pacheco made up for 205 of those carries, averaging a solid 4.6 yards per rush. In all, he made up for almost 30% of the team’s backfield touches. The Chiefs offensive line was a middle-of-the-road 16th in run blocking, according to PFF.
Tampa Bay was 18th in run percentage and 23rd in carries last season, running the ball 439 times. White made up for 272 of those carries and nearly 42% of the backfield touches. The Buccaneers had one of the worst run-blocking lines in the league, ranking 29th.
Winner: Pacheco
As I mentioned, Pacheco averaged 4.6 yards per rush as a rookie, ranking 19th in yards after first contact and tied for 18th in broken tackles. He was also tied for 18th in explosive rushes (runs of 12-plus yards), and his 50 red-zone looks tied for fifth among backs.
White averaged just 3.6 yards per rush last season, which obviously isn’t great. He was 18th in yards after contact, but he broke just 17 tackles (tied for 20th among running backs). White was tied for just 30th in explosive runs, but he did rank eighth in red zone looks.
Winner: Pacheco
Dec 24, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (1) runs the ball against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports / Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports
Pacheco was tied for 22nd in targets and tied for 17th in receptions among backs. He also ranked second in terms of dropped passes at the position with eight. In all, 38% of his fantasy points came from receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches.
White was one of the top-catching running backs in the league last season, tying for ninth in targets and fourth in receptions. He was also third in receiving yards, behind only Breece Hall and Christian McCaffrey, and 51% of his points came as a receiver for the Bucs.
Winner: White
Pacheco runs hard, but he’s remained relatively healthy in his short time in the NFL. He did miss three games last season with a shoulder sprain, however. Also, our friends at Sports Injury Predictor give Pacheco a 90.4% of suffering some sort of injury in 2024. On the flip side, White hasn’t missed any time in his short NFL career. His style of play is also far more conducive to avoiding long-term injuries. His chance of injury is listed at just 43.25%.
Winner: White
Based on the RotoWire Strength of Schedule model, Pacheco and White are in the top half of the league in terms of the upcoming slate. Neither has a significant advantage.
Winner: Push
Pacheco is currently at +7500 to win the Offensive Player of the Year at DraftKings. White comes in at +7000. Pacheco is also +2500 (T-11th) to win the rushing title, while White is at +5000 (T-21). The Chiefs runner also has an edge in terms of most touchdown runs (+2500) as opposed to White, whose odds are +6000, and is at +3500 to lead the league in total touchdowns. White comes in at +6000, tied for 33rd with seven other players.
Winner: Pacheco
Pacheco would be the obvious pick in a standard scoring league, but we’re looking at PPR formats. So, despite the ADP data showing Pacheco being picked first, the data makes me side with White. There is a chance that Pacheco will see more work as a receiver in 2024 since Jerick McKinnon is out of the mix, but the Chiefs added two wideouts in Hollywood Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy. As a result, I still see 50 catches being his ceiling. On the other hand, White should remain a featured back and a popular pass-catching option for his quarterback, Baker Mayfield. The addition of rookie Bucky Irving isn’t a cause for concern either, as White should still see 40% or more of his team’s backfield touches.
Winner: White
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Publish date : 2024-07-22 10:48:09
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