After a long and entertaining regular season and a postseason that saw upsets and traditional favorites rise to the top once again, we find ourselves in Frisco for the FCS Championship. Montana State has their school, state and the entire Big Sky riding for them. It seems as if everyone outside of Fargo is rooting for the Bobcats to get it done. Meanwhile, the Bison make their familiar return to Frisco after being beaten in the spring. This won’t be a new experience for the Bison or their fans but there are a lot of key players who don’t have experience in a game of this magnitude. We look at this matchup and decipher what could possibly make the difference in the game on Saturday.
What do my eyes see?
This is a matchup of two teams which win with physical defense. Both teams look to beat you up on defense and force you into mistakes that cause turnovers. On offense both have terrific rushing attacks but they do it differently. NDSU throws a lot of talented backs at you out of two tight end sets and runs down hill at opponents. MSU gets their quarterback involved heavily in the rushing attack and forces a defense to play 11-on-11 football. Both will take shots through the air but neither want to rely solely on the passing game to lead them to victory. Since both teams run the ball extremely well and both do a great job of stopping the run this game could become a staring contest the teams that blinks first (turns the ball over or does something out of character) is probably going to lose.
TeamSpreadTotalMoneyline
Montana State
+260
North Dakota State
-7.5
41.5
-350
What do the statistics say?
Both teams can score. The Bison average 33.8 points per game and the Bobcats average 30. During its playoff runs North Dakota State has seen a five-point drop in its scoring. Meanwhile, Montana State has actually increased its scoring by three points. Points will definitely be at a premium because these teams are first and second in the FCS in scoring defense. North Dakota State is first allowing 11.21 points per game and Montana State is right behind them with 13.43 points per game.
The rushing attacks for both teams are impressive. Both land in the top 10 in the FCS. The only two teams ahead of the Bison are triple option teams and the Bobcats have the seventh-ranked rushing attack. Montana State running back Isaiah Ifanse, who is third in the FCS in rushing with 1539 yards, and quarterback Tommy Mellot (705) have combined for 2,244 yards rushing this season. They account for 72% of the carries from players currently available for the Bobcats. North Dakota State is much more diplomatic with their carries. They have three players with over 100 carries, three players with 60 or more, and another with 47 carries. It is no wonder they have the third-ranked rushing offense in the FCS without a 1000-yard rusher.
The rushing defenses have been fantastic for the teams as well. Montana State is 13th in the FCS allowing just under 108 yards per game. Opponents average 2.95 yards per carry against them. NDSU is third in the FCS and is only allowing 82.7 yards per game this season. They give up 2.72 yards per rush. It is not surprising that rushing touchdowns have been paltry this season against these squads. Both teams have only surrendered 13 rushing touchdowns this season, combined!
Field goal kicking may also play a big factor in who wins this game since both defenses are excellent. Montana State kicker Blake Glessner is 19-for-24 on the season. NDSU kicker Jake Reinholz is 15-for-20 this season.
Who’s playing?
The Bobcat defense is led by senior linebacker Troy Anderson who is one of the best defensive players in the country. His 137 total tackles and 14 tackles for loss are even more impressive when you consider how dominant the defense has been and how great the offense’s running game has been. He simply has a nose for the football and it will be needed along with efforts from linebacker Callahan O’Reilly, defensive end Daniel Hardy and the entire unit to keep the Bison offense in check.
Offensively, since replacing Matthew McKay at quarterback, Tommy Mellott has earned the nickname Touchdown Tommy which he has earned. His dynamics with his legs have really turned the Bobcats rushing offense into one of the most difficult to stop in the country. Mix that with Ifanse’s explosiveness out of the backfield and receiver Lance McCutcheon’s 1015 yards receiving and it is a trio that the Bison will definitely have their hands full with on Saturday.
The Bison don’t have any individuals that scare you defensively but their defense is like a boa constrictor or quicksand, the more you press, the worse situation you find yourself in. The defense is led by All-MVFC first team selections Brayden Thomas and Michael Tutsie. Thomas is a senior defensive end who leads the team in sacks and Tutsie is second on the team in tackles with 79 from his safety position. Senior linebacker Jackson Hankey is the team’s leading tackler and will be vital in slowing down the Bobcats rushing attack.
Offensively there are so many contributors that it is impossible to point out every one. Christian Watson is an NFL-caliber receiver and will definitely hear his name called during the draft. His explosiveness and ability to run after the catch or by opponents makes him a matchup nightmare.
The two X-factors on offense will be quarterback Quincy Patterson, who has kind of become the change up QB to Cam Miller, and senior fullback Hunter Luepke. Patterson’s ability to be explosive with his legs is a dynamic that has served NDSU well for years. Luepke is a Swiss Army knife type of player who can do it all. He can be the leading rusher, he blocks well and he catches it well out of the backfield. His ability to line up almost anywhere on the field makes it difficult to personnel the Bison even though they use heavy personnel a ton.
What are they playing for?
They are obviously both playing for a championship. It is that simple. But one team has been there, done that and the other has not. The Bison will not be overwhelmed by the experience and we don’t know if the Bobcats will. The thrill of being the first team to win an FCS championship since before any player on the team was born (1984) would definitely be a major accomplishment for the Bobcats, but the Bison also have the desire to essentially restore order to the Bison nation and reclaim their perceived rightful place on the throne. Individual players who may be looking to move on to a professional football career will have all eyes on them on Saturday and this will offer them another opportunity to show their skills against an extremely good opponent.
Predictions
In a game where both teams seem to win the same way, you should lean toward the team who consistently does it better. On paper, the Bison seem to be a little bit better at almost everything. It is difficult to say this is going to be a shootout, both defenses are just too good. You could see this game coming down to a field position battle or a couple players making some phenomenal plays. I think those plays will be made by players for the Bison.
NDSU wins 24-13 (covering 7.5-point spread)
Under 41.5 points
NDSU win by 7-12 +333 on BetMGM
(Photo of Treyton Pickering and R.J. Fitzgerald: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article.)
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Publish date : 2022-01-08 03:00:00
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