Former President Donald Trump’s margins have narrowed in his home state of Florida, according to a new poll.
A Presidential Voting Intention poll of 3,601 swing state voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, found that Trump’s margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key states: Florida and North Carolina.
Trump previously defeated Biden in both states in 2020, while he held a six-point lead over Biden in Florida in a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll from that June.
However, he now only leads the current president by four points in Florida. The poll shows that 45 percent of participants plan to vote for Trump, compared to Biden’s 41 percent.
It is not the only recent poll to give Trump only a four-point lead in Florida. A June Fox News survey gave Trump 50 percent of the vote, compared to 46 percent for Biden.
However, poll aggregator Race to the White House has Trump on average eight points ahead of Biden in the state, with Biden at 41 percent and Trump at 49 percent.
Florida has traditionally been a key swing state, voting for Bill Clinton in 1996 and Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, but more recently, it has become a Republican stronghold. In November 2022, GOP Governor Ron DeSantis secured reelection over his Democratic challenger by 59.4 percent of the vote against 40 percent.
In the 2020 presidential election, Trump won 51.2 percent of the vote, compared to 47.9 percent for Biden.
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Doral, Florida, on July 9. A new poll shows Trump four points ahead of President Joe Biden in Florida.
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Doral, Florida, on July 9. A new poll shows Trump four points ahead of President Joe Biden in Florida.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Trump’s margin is also narrowing in North Carolina, where he had a three-point lead over Biden in June. According to Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ poll, his lead was slashed to only two points, with 44 percent of those polled saying they would vote for Trump, compared to Biden’s 42 percent.
Biden is one point ahead of Trump in Michigan, according to the poll.
However, Trump’s lead has not been completely slashed. The poll, which was conducted before the assassination attempt on the former president on Saturday, showed that he is leading Biden by between 2 and 6 points in five out of the six swing states.
At the same time, his margins have widened in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania since June.
The poll also included independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who polls between 4 and 7 percent in the swing states, performing best in Arizona and worst in North Carolina.
While he generally takes more votes from Biden than Trump, the poll shows a slightly higher percentage of 2020 Trump voters than Biden voters in North Carolina and Georgia plan to vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Overall, the poll found that if Trump and Biden were the candidates of the two major parties in 2024, a plurality of voters in all six states believe Trump would be more likely to win the election.
Biden’s fitness for office has been called into question since his shaky debate performance against Trump in June in which he muddled his words and appeared to lose his train of thought.
Among swing state voters who watched, heard, or read about the June CNN debate, between 51 percent and 55 percent in all six states believe that Trump won the debate, against only 15 percent to 22 percent who think Biden won the debate.
November’s election is likely to be a close race between Trump and Biden. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling average shows the former president with a narrow 1.7-point lead over Biden.
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Source link : https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-polling-florida-swing-states-1925789
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Publish date : 2024-07-18 21:46:19
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