The Big 12 is a conference in transition, and with that comes plenty of betting opportunities in a new-look conference.
While new entrant Utah is the favorite to win the conference, there are plenty of intriguing teams in a crowded Big 12, including second-year member UCF, who landed Arkansas transfer K.J. Jefferson, and Oklahoma State, who brings back a host of key contributors, including Ollie Gordon.
Below, you’ll find our two favorite win total bets as well as a dark horse to watch in the Big 12 and our pick to win it.
For more conference football coverage, find all Big 12 win totals here and the odds to win the conference.
UCF Over 7.5 Wins (-105, FanDuel Sportsbook)
There is a good case to make that UCF has the most talented roster in the Big 12, including one of the best running back groups in the country.
Head coach Gus Malzahn is taking over the play calling this season and landed premier transfer running back Peny Boone (1,400 rushing yards, 15 touchdowns, seven yards per carry) to join 1,400-yard rusher RJ Harvey and big-play threat Johnny Richardson.
The team also has a dangerous rusher at quarterback in Arkansas transfer K.J. Jefferson. Jefferson, who stands 6’3”, 247 pounds, will look to be Malzahn’s modern-day Cam Newton and run a run-first offense that will have plenty of weapons in the passing game, including last year’s second and third wide receivers Kobe Hudson and Xavier Townsend.
The defense struggled to adjust to the Big 12 last season and was outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush, but the secondary was elite and the team has an infusion of talent, including returning pass rushers Malachi Lawrence and UT-Martin transfer Daylan Dotson.
This is a bet on talent. Malzahn has taped into the transfer portal as well as any coach this season, and the team has a high upside in a conference that is wide open this season.
The team figures to be favored in seven games heading into the season with tricky road trips to TCU, Florida, Iowa State, and West Virginia with a home finale against Utah, but this is a bet on the upside.
It’s worth noting UCF went 6-6 last season in its first season in the Big 12, going 2-3 in one-score games, and tallying a post-game win expectancy north of nine last season.
With a ton of talent on hand and a potentially elite offense, I believe UCF can threaten for the Big 12 title and clear seven wins and I’ll trust the team to outperform expectations and win a few of those road games to get to eight wins.
Kansas State Under 9.5 Wins (-144, FD)
The Wildcats have been a proven commodity under Chris Klieman. Outside of the pandemic-shortened season, Kansas State has won eight or more in four seasons under Klieman and now enters with as much hype as ever before.
The team transitions from Will Howard under center to Avery Johnson, the team’s highly touted recruit at quarterback who saw a fair share of time last season, but was used mainly as a rusher, making only 38 dropbacks last regular season, per Pro Football Focus.
Johnson has the arm talent to impress, but it’s fair to have concern that he can be a high-volume passer. It’s also worth noting that the Wildcats will be transitioning to a new offensive coordinator, former offensive line coach Conor Riley will be taking over as impressive OC Collin Klein took the same job at Texas A&M.
The Wildcats still have an elite running game, 1,200-yard rusher D.J. Giddens returns to line up next to the athletic Johnson, but the team must replace a handful on the offensive line, including NFL Draft pick Cooper Bebee.
With some turnover in key places, I think it’s fair to be concerned about the Wildcats path to 10 wins.
There’s little margin for error, but the schedule provides one of the easier ones in the Big 12, hosting Arizona, Oklahoma State, and Kansas with road trips to Tulane, West Virginia, and Iowa State.
This is a bet on the Wildcats slipping just a bit, and not winning double-digit games. It can still be a big year for Kleiman’s group, but I’m fading the team with its highest win total of his tenure.
Dark Horse: Oklahoma State (+850, FD)
While the Cowboys don’t have the most returning production, Mike Gundy’s bunch is pretty close, fourth in the country with plenty of key cogs back, according to ESPN.
The team will have Allan Bowman back at quarterback as well as Doak Walker award winner Ollie Gordon and its top two receivers Brennan Presley and Rashod Owens, including six seniors with playing time on the line.
While the defense was poor last season, 116th in EPA/Play, I’ll give the benefit of the doubt to second-year coordinator Bryan Nardo in the hopes of the Pokes playing better against a schedule that no longer features the likes of Oklahoma and Texas.
The Pokes have high end talent, continuity, and a schedule that can yield a Big 12 title run.
While the team plays Utah, the Utes come to Stillwater, and the team figures to be underdogs in two other Big 12 games with road trips at Kansas State and TCU.
In a conference that figures to have plenty of variance, Oklahoma State has plenty of firepower to pounce on a wide-open league.
Big 12 Best Bet: Utah (+320, DraftKings Sportsbook)
It’s tough not to be impressed with what’s coming back to Kyle Whittingham’s group.
Think of last year as a gap year for the 2021 and 2022 PAC-12 Champions, who didn’t have Cam Rising available last season after a knee injury and didn’t have the offense requisite to compete with the elite of the conference.
Now, the team is in the Big 12, where there will be a drop in high-end talent, and Utah will have a loaded roster that looks a lot like the 2022 group.
Rising is back at quarterback with tight end Brant Kuithe also set to return after missing the entire season as well and running back Micah Bernard back after playing in only two games.
The team added USC transfer Dorian Singer and Syracuse’s Damien Alford to aid Rising in the passing game.
There is a fair case that Utah has the best defense in the PAC-12 with a loaded defensive line, ranking 28th in returning production after ranking 30th in EPA/Play last season in a tougher conference.
While a new conference may be a test, I’ll trust Whittingham to have this veteran group ready for a conference that drops in competition.
To be fair, travel can play a factor with Utah traveling to Oklahoma State early in the season as well as closing the year at UCF, but tough games against Arizona, TCU, and Iowa State will be in Salt Lake City.
There can be plenty of variance in this conference with a ton of capable teams in the mix, but I’ll side with the best one entering the season to emerge.
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Publish date : 2024-07-20 15:50:49
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