The MLB Home Run Derby is tonight at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, and one contender’s odds have shifted in a big way.
Kansas City Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. has gone from +550 to +425 to win thus year’s Home Run Derby, but should you bet on him to win it all?
This year features a new format, which I broke down in yesterday’s Home Run Derby best bets. To make sure that bettors are ready for what they’re getting into, here’s a snippet from that to recap the rules:
The first round is no longer head-to-head. The four players with the most home runs in the first round will advance to the next round. They will be seeded for head-to-head “knockout style” in the semifinals. The player with the most home runs in the first round will grab the No. 1 seed, etc. If there is a tie in the first round, the seeding or qualifying will be broken by the longest home run distance.
In the first two rounds, the batter will be limited to three minutes, with a max of 40 pitches per round. This will eliminate the hurry for pitchers to throw as many balls as possible, which could increase fatigue and injury risk. Batters also still receive one 45-second timeout per round.
The Final round will consist of just 27 pitches.
Bonus time will be granted to each player at the end of each round. However, there will be no timer in the bonus round this season. Instead, the player will continue until he makes three outs (a ball that is not hit for a home run). One extra out can be earned if a player hits a home run 425 feet or longer.
A 60-second swing-off will break ties in the semifinals or finals. No timeouts will be granted during these 60 seconds.
With Witt’s odds shifting, he’s now third on the odds board behind Pete Alonso and Marcell Ozuna.
Here are the 2024 competitors and their current odds at DraftKings:
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pete Alonso +320
Marcell Ozuna +425
Bobby WItt, Jr. +425
Gunnar Henderson +450
Adolis Garcia +550
Teoscar Hernandez +1100
Jose Ramirez +1400
Alec Bohm +1800
If you read my Home Run Derby breakdown yesterday, you know that Witt was my choice to win it all. Yesterday he was at +550. I hope you grabbed the value early.
Witt leads the field with a 116.9 max exit velocity and he also has more no-doubters (home runs that would be gone in any MLB ballpark) than anyone on the field with 12.
The Royals star also leads with the longest home run hit — 468 feet — 22 feet ahead of Ozuna and Alonso, who are tied for second. Not only that, but Witt’s average home run this season goes 417 feet, which also leads the field.
Witt has only 16 home runs this season, but I think that’s working to our advantage with the payout. Remember, last year’s winner, Toronto Blue Jays star Vlad Guererro, Jr., had only 13 home runs coming into the Derby.
Witt’s home ballpark hasn’t done him any favors, as those 16 home runs would be 21 at Globe Life.
Plus, there is a hometown aspect to look at too, as Witt grew up in DFW and was snubbed not getting the All-Star start tomorrow. This payout looks enticing for the Royals shortstop.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Source link : https://www.si.com/betting/2024-home-run-derby-bobby-witt-jr-surges-second-best-odds-win
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Publish date : 2024-07-15 13:39:46
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