Wisconsin football isn’t a program that demands year-in and year-out College Football Playoff expectations. At least it isn’t yet at that level.
Chris McIntosh’s goal when hiring new head coach Luke Fickell in 2022 was, as mentioned countless times, to compete for championships. The long-term ceiling under Fickell is to consistently reach the now-expanded 12-team Playoff field. But the program is far from that point entering 2024, fresh off consecutive 7-6 seasons.
Related: 10 developing opinions entering year two of the Luke Fickell era at Wisconsin
Fickell’s early recruiting performance points toward a future uptick in on-field performance, if all falls right. He finished the 2024 recruiting cycle with a top-25 class and Wisconsin’s first-ever blue-chip ratio of 50%. Those players will not affect the team’s playoff chances in 2024, but there are reasons for optimism moving into the future.
But this is about 2024. Wisconsin faces one of the toughest schedules in the country as the Big Ten expands to 18 teams. The Badgers will need to improve drastically from their 2023 form in order to reach the 9-win threshold necessary for playoff consideration.
Related: Big Ten position power rankings for Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, Offensive Lines, Tight Ends
Throughout the season we’ll do the age-old ‘Why Wisconsin Wins’ and ‘Why Wisconsin Loses’ entering each game. But with the season fast approaching, it’s time to do that exercise with a focus on why the Badgers will or won’t reach the 2024 College Football Playoff:
(Note: These are not predictions. But rather the reasons that, in hindsight, we’d point to as why the Badgers do or don’t make a big jump)
WON’T: Phil Longo’s offense isn’t a fit
Wisconsin offensive coordinator Phil Longo chats with running back Chez Mellusi before the team’s intrasquad scrimmage on the field north of Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin on Saturday April 27, 2024. Mark Stewart / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK
There is no bigger factor in the Badgers’ success in 2024 than the performance of Phil Longo’s offense in his second year with the program.
The 2023 team struggled to adapt to Longo’s air raid system — yes, with mostly players from the Paul Chryst era. The unit finished the season ranked No. 93 in scoring with 23.5 points per game and No. 71 in total offense with 381.2 yards per game. Its struggles were the most glaring against the top defenses on its schedule including Iowa and Ohio State.
Fans can be optimistic about what year two will bring with a new host of transfer additions. But nobody can deny that the jury remains out on if the approach can work at a school like Wisconsin.
If the Badgers stumble to the finish in 2024, it will be because Longo’s offense did not take a step forward.
WILL: A defensive resurgence
Wisconsin defensive coordinator Mike Tressel makes a point to linebacker Christian Alliegro during the team’s final spring practice, which was held on the field north of Camp Randall Stadium on Thursday May 2, 2024 in Madison, Wisconsin. Mark Stewart / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK
Wisconsin’s defense was average for the program’s high standards in 2023. But it still finished No. 21 in the nation in scoring defense and No. 39 in total defense.
There should not be much of a question if the unit will take a big step forward in 2024. It returns stars Hunter Wohler and Ricardo Hallman in the secondary, and completely remade the linebacker room in the transfer portal.
The defense will be the strength of the team this season. But a truly special campaign is necessary for a playoff breakthrough.
WON’T: Schedule is too difficult
Oct 28, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell looks on during the second quarter against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Wisconsin faces ESPN SP+’s No. 3 (Oregon), No. 5 (Alabama), No. 7 (Penn State), No. 21 (USC) and No. 22 (Nebraska) teams in 2024. That is after the team faced only one top contender in 2023 (Ohio State).
That’s the reality of the new age of the Big Ten. The good news is it should force the Badgers to step up their game in order to compete.
But a playoff birth would require a 10-2 or exceptional 9-3 campaign. That means wins against some of the top teams in the nation, and avoiding upset against all other opponents.
WILL: Most of the challenging game are at home
Oct 7, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell looks on during the fourth quarter against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
If Alabama, Oregon and Penn State are on the schedule, at least have those games at Camp Randall Stadium — which is the case.
The Badgers do travel to USC, Iowa and Nebraska. But playing the three top-10 teams all at home makes an upset or two much more likely.
The team gets Alabama early in the season, then gets Penn State right before it plays Ohio State. Maybe the schedule makers rigged it for the Badgers to enter each top matchup in a sneaky upset spot.
WON’T: The offensive line still doesn’t progress
Wisconsin offensive lineman Jack Nelson (79) goes through a drill during spring practice at the McClain Center in Madison, Wisconsin on Tuesday April 2, 2024. Credit: Mark Stewart / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK
Wisconsin’s offense line was a work in progress in 2023 — as was the rest of the offense. That group is expected to take a big step forward after another offseason of preparation. But the adjustment from the Badgers’ old pro-style system to their new air raid attack may take more than just one season.
The Badgers need their offensive line dominance to return in a bad way. If it doesn’t, the team will not break through.
WILL: The wide receiver talent overcomes other deficiencies
Sep 9, 2023; Pullman, Washington, USA; Wisconsin Badgers wide receiver Bryson Green (9) is unable to make the one handed catch against Washington State Cougars defensive back Cam Lampkin (3) in the second half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Washington State won 31-22. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Wisconsin could be limited at tight end, average along the offensive line and banged up at running back. But if the wide receiver corps of Bryson Green, Will Pauling, C.J. Williams and others are as good as we think they can be, a lot can be made up for.
This already lines up to be the program’s best set of wide receivers in decades. But a playoff birth is possible only if it can carry the offense.
WON’T: The defensive line isn’t strong enough
Sep 22, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers defensive end James Thompson Jr. (90) celebrates after sacking Purdue Boilermakers quarterback Hudson Card (1) during the first half at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
This is by far the biggest question on the team — and is the reason I’d point to as why the team isn’t quite ready in 2024.
Fickell and his staff have landed several blue-chip defensive linemen during the last few recruiting cycles. But the current depth chart is incredibly thin, even after landing transfers Brandon Lane and Elijah Hills.
Wide receivers and running backs get headlines. But defensive lines are the groups that win championships.
WILL: Defensive stars at linebacker and in the secondary
Nov 11, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers safety Hunter Wohler (24) celebrates following a play during the third quarter against the Northwestern Wildcats at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
All-American-level seasons are necessary from S Hunter Wohler, CB Ricardo Hallman and the new transfer linebackers if Wisconsin is light along the defensive line. The defense as a whole projects to be good. But this exercise needs it to be elite, and that requires elite players on every level.
WON’T: Luke Fickell makes poor game management decisions
MADISON, WISCONSIN – OCTOBER 28: Luke Fickell head coach of the Wisconsin Badgers prior to the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Camp Randall Stadium on October 28, 2023 in Madison, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
From our recent piece on 10 developing opinions entering year two of the Luke Fickell era:
This is the last semi-negative thought entering the 2024 season. Luke Fickell’s game management was questionable at times in 2023, especially as he worked to marry two divergent systems. While the team was led by its defense, some of the punt decisions were overly conservative and hurt the team’s chances of winning.
Examples:
vs. Ohio State … trailing 17-10 with 11:09 left in the game, punt on fourth-and-6 from the Ohio State 48-yard line
vs. Northwestern … trailing 14-3 with 10:13 left in the second quarter, punt on fourth-and-3 from the Northwestern 42-yard line.
vs. LSU … leading 31-28 with 10:34 left in the game, punt on fourth-and-2 from own 47-yard line
vs. LSU … leading 31-28 with 6:10 left in the game, punt on fourth-and-13 from LSU 37-yard line
Those are just four examples of questionable punt decisions. There are numerous more examples of poor game management leading to missing out on points or a chance to stay competitive in the game.
Paul Chryst was known for his conservative game management. But that fits the identity of his team and offense. The new-look Badgers should not manage a game like the old Badgers did. It’s an entirely different program and general philosophy.
Fickell will need to bring a different approach to Wisconsin’s big games in 2024. Especially if the Badgers are prohibitive underdogs and need to work to create their own luck.
WILL: Alabama and Penn State aren’t as strong as we think
April 9, 2024; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer coaches his team during practice in the Hank Crisp Indoor Practice Facility at the University of Alabama. Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News-USA TODAY NETWORK
Again, Wisconsin could get Alabama and Penn State at the perfect times in 2024.
The Crimson Tide are in the midst of transition under new head coach Kalen DeBoer. He’s a fantastic coach. So as the season continues, the team projects to only improve. So Week 3 may be the perfect time to play his new-look program.
Penn State, meanwhile, will have its season defined by a home game against Ohio State on November 2. It travels to Wisconsin the previous week, setting a perfect trap scenario.
WON’T: An Alex Grinch-sized hiring mistake
Apr 23, 2022; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans defensive coordinator Alex Grinch during the spring game at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Remember, this is only a look into the future at what could possibly go wrong during the season. Fans weren’t happy this offseason when the Badgers hired Grinch for its vacancy at safeties coach — and gave him a co-DC title.
He is fresh off a disaster tenure as defensive coordinator at USC under Lincoln Riley. College football fans all know his name, and not for good reasons.
A realistic fan would say that his hire is insignificant and won’t affect the team in 2024. That’s probably the case. But there could be something said for his general presence affecting the defense in a negative way.
WILL: A special season from QB Tyler Van Dyke?
Wisconsin quarterback Tyler Van Dyke throws a pass as coach Luke Fickell watches during spring practice at the McClain Center in Madison, Wisconsin on Tuesday April 2, 2024. Credit: Mark Stewart / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK
The most important factors in Wisconsin’s success in 2024 are Phil Longo’s offense the Badgers’ offensive line and whether its defensive line can hold up against some of the sport’s top competition.
But right behind all of that will be the play of Miami transfer QB Tyler Van Dyke.
The three-year starter was fantastic back in 2021, throwing for 2,931 yards, 25 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. 2022 and 2023 were struggles as he threw for a combined 29 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.
A return to 2021 form could ascend him to the top tier of quarterbacks in the conference and help the Badgers’ quest for a playoff appearance.
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Publish date : 2024-07-14 08:40:00
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