The Big 12 and ACC have been competing for the past year or so, trying to prove why they are the third-best conferences in college football.
The Big 12 has claimed it is the deepest conference and the only conference in America with teams in every time zone. It also got teams from the Pac-12 before the ACC did, suggesting that its expansion teams are much better than what the ACC got.
The ACC claims it is better because it has the biggest brands. Clemson, North Carolina, and Florida State are all bigger brands than anything the Big 12 offers. The ACC also has a scheduling agreement with Notre Dame. Finally, it points out that unlike the Big 12, it hasn’t had teams leave the conference for other conferences.
All of that may be about to change.
Rumors Swirling in a Way Very Similiar to Last Year
Dec 2, 2023; Charlotte, NC, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive lineman Jared Verse (5) reacts during the fourth quarter against the Louisville Cardinals at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
Last year, there were rumors that the Pac-12 teams were starting to gain interest in leaving the Pac-12 for the Big 12. For a few weeks, multiple reports were that teams such as Colorado and Arizona were speaking with Big 12 officials. However, nothing was official until, out of nowhere, Colorado announced that they would leave for the Big 12. About a week later, the same happened with Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah.
The tough part about realignment is that schools never say anything; everything is hearsay. However, when looking at last year’s pattern (and 2021, when BYU, Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston joined the Big 12) there are a few trends that are following the same path:
Teams are unhappy in their current conference. Last year, the Pac-12 was unhappy about not getting a media deal. This year, the top ACC schools feel they should be getting more revenue from their own deals. Notre Dame recently found out they can’t qualify for an auto-bid in the expanded playoff. The Irish could be 12-0 and ranked No. 1 and they would still have to play an opening round game. Even crazier, according to recent reports, the Irish may not even host a game since it is “too cold” in December.Reports of Discussions—Anyone can say that discussions are happening, but when Josh Pate, Ross Dellenger, and others say there are conversations going on, it is worth listening to.Brett Yormark is still the Big 12 Commissioner. Yormark is a businessman, and one of his most iconic lines while being a commissioner is, “We’re open for business.” He said this last year before the conference expanded, and he said it again just two days ago at Big 12 Media Days.Big 10/SEC seem content: Last year, teams like Utah looked further east to the Big 10 and SEC for expansion, but there was no interest. It seems that is happening again.How Expansion Could Happen
Oct 27, 2018; Tallahassee, FL, USA; Clemson Tigers wide receiver Tee Higgins (5) is defended by Florida State Seminoles defensive back AJ Lytton (12) during the second half at Doak Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
Brett Yormark is a great businessman who knows how to get money. He’s exploring giving naming rights to companies like Allstate, working on a private equity deal with a company in Europe, and having Totinos promote the Big 12 Media Days. Let’s not forget that Yormark got in front of the Pac-12 and got a media deal done, which was the first major blow to the former Conference of Champions.
With that backdrop, here is how it could happen:
The Big 12 could pay Notre Dame, Florida State, and Clemson unequal shares. If the conference can secure a $100 million private equity deal, $10 million could go to each of those three schools, and the other schools could share the remaining $70 million.If the ACC collapses, ESPN would re-enter TV contract negotiations with the Big 12. While the money wouldn’t necessarily transfer straight to the Big 12, it’s not unrealistic to believe that they could settle for a $15 million/school addition. It’s also possible FOX would also throw in more money to get more rights, although their addition would be much less, perhaps in the $2-3 million/school range.NBC makes things very interesting. They currently have a $50 million/year deal with Notre Dame. Would the Big 12 be able to bring ESPN and FOX to the table and allow NBC to be part of the deal? Maybe they could make a deal where NBC would play each school for $3/million and, in exchange, still get six Notre Dame games, while FOX and ESPN would get access to three games each.A deal with a corporate sponsor is projected to bring in anywhere from $4-6 million/school. Add Florida State, Clemson, and Notre Dame, and that number probably ends up around $6 million.
Adding all that up, we have the $35 million TV revenue + $10 million private equity + $17 million ESPN/FOX expanded TV revenue + $3 million NBC deal + $6 million corporate sponsor = $71 million.
That would put these three teams right on par with the SEC and Big 10 without having to deal with Michigan, Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama, Texas, or Oregon.
Would Other Big 12 Teams Agree?
Jul 9, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Big 12 Conference commissioner Brett Yormark speaks to the media during the Big 12 Media Days at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports
Big 12 teams have a lot of hesitation in entering into a non-equal revenue share after what happened with Texas doing that in the last media deal. Teams felt that Texas got to call all the shots (and they did) and that despite being in the same conference, Texas had a huge advantage because of the money they brought it.
The difference now is that the Big 10 and SEC appear to be heading towards a Super League of two conferences where they will leave everyone else behind. The Big 12 would position itself in an almost impossible-to-ignore spot by making a deal like this. The Big 10 and SEC would have a tough time dropping the Big 12 when the Big 12 is ten times better than any other conference besides them.
For that reason, I think the conference would likely agree to non-equal revenue shares. It would secure their future, and for most teams, that means security, something that every current Big 12 team has not felt since before Texas and Oklahoma announced they’d be leaving for the SEC.
Other Teams Join the Big 12?
If Clemson and Florida State leave for the Big 12, the conference would have free choice to take whoever else they want. The assumption would be that if the Big 12 also gets Notre Dame, they’d take Pitt, Miami, and probably Lousiville as a sixth team. If Notre Dame doesn’t join, I believe Pitt, Lousiville, North Carolina, and Duke are the best four.
A case could also be made for Georgia Tech (Georgia market), Boston College (Boston market), NC State, or Virginia Tech. There is also the possibility that with FSU and Clemson, the football brand would be strong enough to go get UConn to strengthen basketball further and get into the northeast.
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Publish date : 2024-07-11 11:04:10
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