We’re going to pick on Patrick Corbin a little bit today. The lefty hurler is in the bottom 7% of the league in strikeouts, exit velocity, ERA, xERA, and hard-hit rate – to name just a few.
Despite Grimace abandoning the Mets recently, I still think New York is in a good spot tonight. I’ve found a few bets that present good value.
All odds listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook
Patrick Corbin under 3.5 K (+100)
I like the even money here for Corbin to tally no more than three strikeouts tonight. The Mets have the ninth-best K-rate vs. lefties this season (20.8%), and Corbin is punching batters out at a rate of just 6.12 per nine innings. He’s gone under this mark in eight of his 18 starts this season, including his last start where he lasted only five innings vs. the Cardinals and tallied just three strikeouts. The Mets have slugged .550 vs. southpaws since June 1 with a .920 OPA and .302 batting average (2nd in MLB).
With the game total set up at 9.5, it seems to me the Mets should be getting to Corbin, and that’s enough for me to grab the payout here.
Francisco Lindor over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Here’s another even-money prop I like tonight. Lindor is batting .302 vs. lefties this season as opposed to just .236 vs. righties. His 15 extra-base hits vs. southpaws are tied for third-best in MLB. Since June 1st, Lindor is batting .294 with 74 total bases. I like the even money for LIndor to tally a couple of tonight.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Source link : https://www.si.com/betting/mlb-player-props-to-target-for-nationals-vs-mets-tonight-01j2f6733402
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Publish date : 2024-07-10 16:52:42
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