The MLB season marches on and we’re in the final week of action before the All-Star Break.
All 15 teams are in action today which means we have plenty of games to watch and bet on. As we always do on Rounding the Bases, I’m going to give you my pick to win each one of them. Let’s dive into it.
Odds in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Orioles offense continues to be one of the best in the Majors, ranking second in OPS over the past 30 days. Meanwhile, the Cubs are a measly 25th. Dean Kramer (3.93 ERA) should be able to hold his own against this Cubs lineup, I’ll back the O’s.
Bobby Miller will get the start for the Dodgers tonight and his struggled have continued since returning from injury. He has a 6.75 in three starts since then and until he proves he can return to form, I’m going to go ahead and fade Los Angeles in his starts, especially against a lineup as strong as the Phillies.
I expected regression from the Guardians, but they’re starting to turn me into a believer. They’re still a top 10 offense in the Majors and now get to face a slumping Kenta Maeda of the Tigers, who has a lowly 6.71 ERA on the season. Cleveland is the bet in this one.
The Rays are lucky to be sitting at 44-46, just two games back from .500. They have one of the worst bullpens in the Majors and they’re just 21st in OPS this season. It’s time for the Yankees to snap out of their slump.
The Nationals’ offense has been surprisingly adequate the past 30 days, ranking 12th in OPS over that time frame. They are in a great upset spot tonight against the Mets with Jake Irvin and his 2.80 ERA on the mound.
I simply don’t think the Reds should be a -184 favorite with how their offense has played this season, specifically over the past month where they rank 27th in OPS while also batting a measly .219. You have to plug your nose before betting on the Rockies, but I’ll pass on laying a big price on a team that’s batting .219 over the past month.
It’s largely a wash on the starting pitcher matchup in this game between Joey Estes (4.39 ERA) and Brayan Bello (5.19 ERA), so we have to look to the offenses, an area where the Red Sox have a significant advantage. Boston ranks sixth in OPS over the past 30 days while the A’s come in at 19th. I’ll back the Bo Sox.
Regression is here for the Royals offense. They’re 26th in the Majors in OPS over the past 30 days while the Cardinals enter this game ranking 13th in that time frame. I’ll take the Cardinals as short favorites.
The Pirates have yet to announce who’s going to start from them on the mound today, but it’s hard to imagine it will be someone as good as Colin Rea (3.34 ERA) of the Brewers. That means Milwaukee will have both the pitching and offensive advantage in this one. Back the Brew Crew.
The Twins lead all of Major League Baseball in OPS over the past 30 days at .906. Despite the White Sox starting Erick Fedde and his 3.13 ERA, I simply can’t look past just how good the Twins offense is.
The Marlins are dead last in the Majors in OPS over the past 30 days at .615, with the next worse team being significantly ahead of them at .648. Now they’re starting Trevor Rogers with his 1-9 record. I’ll back the Astros without hesitation.
Max Scherzer has been fantastic since making his 2024 debut, sporting a 2.70 ERA. I have no interest in betting against the Rangers when he takes the mound.
We’re in for a great pitching matchup tonight between Chris Sale (2.71 ERA) and Zac Gallen (3.06 ERA), but it’s the Diamondbacks who have had the hotter offense, ranking third in OPS over the last 30 days while the Braves rank 18th.
I’m shocked the Mariners have a 49-43 record at this point of the season. They’re batting just .205 over the past 30 days, the worst mark in the Majors. They certainly have the pitching advantage in this one, but I have no interest betting on the Mariners’ offense as road favorites.
Blake Snell won the National League Cy Young last season but has been completely abysmal in 2024, sporting an ERA of 9.51 across 23.2 innings pitched. He’ll be making his first start since June 2 tonight but I still have no faith he can deliver.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Publish date : 2024-07-09 10:48:58
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