U.S. president Joe Biden is under pressure to defend his candidacy after his car crash debate with former president Donald Trump.
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Biden’s odds of dropping out of this year’s White House race have suddenly soared over the last few days to 62% on crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket.
Meanwhile, Trump’s chances of retaking the White House in November have rocketed to over 60% against Biden’s 12%, with bettors placing a combined $230 million on the race.
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Forbes’Voters Will Be Heard’-Billionaire Mark Cuban Issues Stark Warning To Joe Biden Over Donald Trump’s New ‘Weapon’By Billy Bambrough
U.S. president Joe Biden has come under pressure to defend his 2024 White House candidacy, though … [+] speculators on the crypto-based Polymarket have drastically ramped up their bets he’ll drop out and lose to former president Donald Trump.
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Biden has faced increasing calls for him to step aside and make room for a new Democratic Party candidate to run against former president and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump this week.
In an attempt to reassure voters, Biden sat down for a TV interview with ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos, however, the interview failed to move the needle on the Polymarket odds of the president dropping out.
For the Polymarket question asking whether Biden will drop out of the U.S. election, 62% of the near $12 million bet say he will, up from under 20% just last week.
The question asking who will win the presidency has 61% of the $230 million bet for Trump and just 12% for Biden. Vice president Kamala Harris is ahead of Biden on 15%, suggesting bettors think she’s more likely to be the Democratic candidate by the November election.
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ForbesLike ‘Losing A War’-Donald Trump Issues Dollar Collapse Warning After Huge Bitcoin DonationBy Billy Bambrough
The chances of president Joe Biden dropping out of the White House race have suddenly surged, giving … [+] former president Donald Trump greater chances of winning the election.
Forbes Digital Assets
Crypto-based prediction platforms such as Polymarket have surged in popularity in recent years, with those in the crypto community seizing on a successful use case for the technology.
“Polymarket’s astronomical success is the most important story in crypto right now, but it’s so obvious that we are ignoring it, when we should be screaming it from the rooftops,” Coinbase engineer Yuga Cohler posted to X.
“Prediction markets have long been sought as a prime use case for blockchains,” Zack Pokorny, an analyst at Galaxy Digital, wrote in a research note seen by Coindesk. “Their censor and tamper resistant, transparent, and global nature makes them well suited for the task, as they allow for the unfiltered casting of opinion on any topic from anyone, anywhere.”
However, crypto-based prediction markets are seen as too niche to form a complete picture of the electorate due to users skewing younger and crypto-friendly.
“They solely reflect the opinions of individuals who are active on blockchains, which, today, is a small sect of people with possibly similar beliefs,” Pokorny wrote. “With crypto becoming an increasingly partisan political issue, and Polymarket only able to be used with crypto, it’s possible that Polymarket’s political markets may be skewed by the pro-crypto biases of its participants.”
Source link : https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/07/06/odds-of-biden-dropping-out-suddenly-soar-on-230-million-trump-bet/
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Publish date : 2024-07-06 06:15:19
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