Party like it is 2016, not only are the Oklahoma City Thunder back in the second round for the first time since that season but are matched up with the Dallas Mavericks in the postseason for the fourth time in franchise history.
As Oklahoma City swept the New Orleans Pelicans in the first round, the Dallas Mavericks finished off the L.A. Clippers in Game 6 on Friday night to set up this best-of-seven series.
The two sides met in the regular season four times where the Thunder edged the Mavericks three times, though the lone loss came in the only game Dallas was fully equipped with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
Without much meaningful data to go off of from the regular season in a head-to-head standpoint, the predictions for this series will be tougher to make.
Though, despite not having a ton to go off of from the 82-game marathon, this seven-game sprint will have no shortage of storylines.
Dec 2, 2023; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) and Oklahoma City Thunder / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
They say the NBA is a star-driven league, especially in the playoffs as the leading stars are asked to do even more. The Oklahoma City Thunder-Dallas Mavericks second-round series has no shortage of headliners.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic are two of the best players in the league as evident by them occupying two of the top three slots in NBA Most Valuable Player Award voting this season. This marks back-to-back top-five finishes for Gilgeous-Alexander.
While neither player felt like they had their fastball in their respective opening rounds, they each project to play better in the second.
Dallas has mainly played in blowout games – one way or another – throughout this season and especially in the postseason thus far. However, it is easy to project the series between these two squads to tighten up. Just four of the 10 first-round games when combining these two teams’ playoff runs thus far were played within 10 points. This is sure to change come Tuesday.
With each possession and game that passes everything matters more. Buckets get harder to come by, games get harder to close and you need some spectacular performances.
Which star will shine the brightest in the tightly competitive series? The answer will likely determine the outcome of this series.
Gilgeous-Alexander projects to find more offensive success in Round 2, after dealing with Herb Jones last series, though the Mavericks will still be able to deploy the likes of Derrick Jones Jr. on the star. Doncic on the other hand will get a lot of face-time with Lu Dort – who the NBA superstar called a top-three defender in the league – while Dort will not limit Doncic to the lowly totals Brandon Ingram put up in Round 1, you can not ask for a better threat to present a speed bump to the bucket-getter.
Apr 28, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) celebrates with Dallas / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
While Oklahoma City boasts a top-five offense and top-five defense, the Dallas Mavericks have a counter to the Thunder’s defense – an avenue they can exploit against nearly any team.
With handlers like Doncic and Irving, naturally, they will command attention. As perimeter defenders fight over screens, the big man in charge of the roller will clearly have to shade toward the on-ball guards in an attempt to limit these prolific scorers. This can put the man in the middle in compromised positions, a step late on a roller and the Mavericks have the playmakers to make you pay.
While Chet Holmgren will assuredly get blocks from behind utilizing his timing and length, there will also be easy points generated for Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II.
As Lu Dort was fantastic in the Thunder’s first-round series, some lazy Pelicans screens helped compound the problem for New Orleans. Despite there being no concern about Dort’s ability to bust through a brick wall, it will be a touch harder. Doncic ranks in the 93rd percentile in the pick-and-roll while Irving ranks in the 82nd percentile. This will be the bread and butter for Dallas and a key area of the Thunder’s defensive coverage.
Feb 10, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Josh Giddey (3) looks to pass as / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
This has been an up-and-down season for Josh Giddey who has at times seen some of his worst basketball as he adapts to yet another new role.
However, the 21-year-old has been on fire since March 1 playing some of his best basketball in that span – including a career-best 69 percent at the rim to unlock more of his offensive game. Now, the former No. 6 overall pick has found his stride again to help lift the Thunder to 57 wins and a first-round series sweep of the Pelicans where he headlined in two of the four wins.
So far in his young career, Giddey has played his best basketball in the biggest games, but this Mavericks series presents a different element. With so many scoring threats across the board, defending the Thunder becomes a pick-your-poison proposition for opposing teams.
In the third clash between these two teams, the Thunder only played Giddey 22 minutes which had little to do with his output and more to do with Jason Kidd. The Mavericks bench boss elected to make a second-half adjustment that featured leaving Giddey open in the corner after intermission despite the guard posting a solid first half.
There just is no better answer for opposing coaches than to relocate Giddey to a corner shooter, cramp some of the driving and cutting lanes, and tip your cap if the third-year guard blitzes the nets with triples. This can swiftly take Giddey off the floor in favor of Cason Wallace – who can defend and shoot at a higher clip than Giddey – but would in turn limit the already laboring Thunder on the glass. Perhaps Kenrich Williams, who did not see much action in round one, could be the proper answer. The grit-and-grind forward has shot nearly 40 percent from beyond the arc and pitch in on the glass.
Or, Giddey can continue to shoot the lights out of the gym as he did on Bourbon Street and the Thunder offense can cruise. Regardless of which direction things turn, this will be a massive storyline to follow for both sides. There is a shot – even with solid play – Giddey will have to work to stay on the floor.
Feb 10, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving (11) dribbles as Oklahoma City / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Irving is a proven tough-shot maker in the biggest moments – including in the NBA Finals. While Jalen Williams handled his first taste of the NBA Playoffs better than anyone could expect, things get no easier in Round 2.
Williams will continue to be looked upon to bring the scoring punch for Oklahoma City, while Irving has done a fantastic job of settling the waters for the Mavericks throughout their first-round series.
Irving has the edge in experience and production you can bank on, but regardless of life-long resume, Williams is no slouch. This season, the Santa Clara product has been one of the best final frame scorers in the NBA – consistently hitting tough mid-range shots and projecting to be a future All-Star in this league.
While each side will work to limit the top-name in the series play-bill, which co-star can consistently take over games?
Dec 2, 2023; Dallas, Texas, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7) and Dallas / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
While everyone will point to the lack of size and the double-barrel big men Jason Kidd can deploy, the Thunder can create advantages from that. It will be tough for the Mavericks to keep up with Holmgren on the perimeter who can knock down triples, dominate as a screener or put the ball on the deck himself.
Doncic will be put in nearly every action, while his defense has improved this season getting the superstar in foul trouble would limit the effort he can expend on that end of the floor. Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams require proper length and size to match up with their ability to rise up over defenders or use gear shifts to navigate to the rim.
The Thunder are positioned to switch everything defensively with capable defenders are every spot in most lineups. On the offensive end the constant cutting and screening actions could help Oklahoma City pick their target.
May 3, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Derrick Jones Jr. (55) and center Daniel / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Doncic and Irving can almost name their stat line against any defense, but the Mavericks lack any other offensive-creators. in order for their complimentary players to get going, it takes open looks generated from the attention dedicated to the Mavs stars.
While P.J. Washington is an off-ball threat, Gafford and Lively II are primed to put down lobs, Tim Hardaway Jr. can catch fire from beyond the arc if healthy, it all stems from open looks to get them comfortable.
Oklahoma City will have to stick to the off-ball players and let the superstars do damage to not let the Mavericks reach their full potential.
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Publish date : 2024-05-05 03:00:00
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