Welcome to the start of NBA free agency.
At 6 pm EST today, the free agency negotiating window will open and teams will begin to negotiate with players on the open market. It is also around this time when trade talks begin to accelerate and deals are made. Rumors have been flying around for the past few weeks about who is going where and a lot of those questions will be answered in the coming days.
One of the biggest questions in the NBA is about the future of Lauri Markkanen. The seven-foot forward just averaged 23.2 points, 8.2 rebounds and 2.0 assists on 48% from the field and 40% from three-point range in 55 games for the Utah Jazz. His size, shooting and rebounding make him a perfect fit on practically any team, but his contract is the real prize. His current salary of $18 million means that he is easy to fit onto teams’ cap sheets.
It’s for this reason that Jazz top executive Danny Ainge isn’t interested in trading Markkanen for anything less than a massive package. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski alluded to this in a recent appearance, but hinted that a trade could happen if the Jazz get a package they cannot refuse.
“In a perfect world, Utah wants to keep Markkannen and sign him to an extension this summer. However, teams are being aggressive. Utah’s gotta listen. And there’s no shortage of teams who have an interest in seeing what it might take to get Markkanen out of Utah.”
To be clear, I do not think Markkanen is going to be an Atlanta Hawk. There are two reasons. First, Atlanta does not have the pick equity to do this. Mikal Bridges, who is a lesser version of the same archetype of player, went for four unprotected first-rounders (2025, 2027, 2029 and 2031), a protected 2025 first-round pick, the Knicks’ unprotected 2028 pick swap and a 2025 Brooklyn second-round selection. For Atlanta, they would have to give up all of their first-round picks and DeAndre Hunter/Zaccharie Risacher to have a chance in the sweepstakes. It is not a deal that makes sense with the current roster. Secondly, I do not think it is a deal that the Hawks need to make. This year should be focused on evaluating how Zaccharie Risacher and Jalen Johnson function as the starting wings. Getting Markkanen would be an expensive move that makes little sense.
That being said, there are a few teams where Markkanen makes sense and they have the assets/cap space to acquire him. One of those teams are the Oklahoma City Thunder.
They have a surplus of first-round picks, made the Western Conference Semifinals and have franchise cornerstones in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. In an extremely competitive Western Conference, the Thunder can use their assets to establish themselves as the best roster in their conference by trading for Markkanen. They struggled with rebounding in their playoff loss to the Dallas Mavericks and Markkanen’s skillset would go a long way towards fixing that issue.
Having Markkanen on their roster also makes a player like Lu Dort somewhat expendable. Dort is a great defender who has shown plenty of growth as a shooter in Oklahoma City, but he would be a bench piece in the event of a Markannen trade. The Thunder acquired Alex Caruso earlier in the off-season, so they can play a lineup of Caruso-SGA-Williams-Markkanen-Holmgren. Since they are depleting their first-round pick supply, would they be interested in recouping some of that value from Atlanta?
Atlanta’s involvement would only make sense for someone like Dort since they could add him to the bigger lineups they are putting around Trae Young. Dort can match up with guards like Luka Doncic and forwards like Brandon Ingram, depending on the opponent.
An underrated part of the discussions about the Jazz and Thunder are that the Jazz are interested in making a play-in or playoff push next season. Ainge spoke about his outlook on the offseason in an Salt Lake Tribune article by Andy Larsen in mid-April, but there is no indication his perspective have changed between then and now.
“We felt like we were close (on a trade) once in this process that would have changed the dynamic of our team immediately. But that hasn’t happened. We don’t want to get go from the 23rd-best team to the 18th-best by giving up a bunch of things, either. That’s not our objective.”
“We are not really interested in dinosaurs. We’re interested in good 6-7 year (players). I’m not saying that we wouldn’t go get some veteran player for a short-term fix to buy us some time, but that’s not as likely. It’s possible.”
There could be a three-team deal where the Thunder get a piece that cements them as a top-three roster in the league, the Jazz get massive value for Markkanen and inexpensive short-term fixes while the Hawks add more pieces to the size-oriented defensive lineup they are building around Trae Young. Here is what that trade would look like.
It should be noted that this is just speculative and a fun exercise to see what kind of moves can be made, not what I think a team should definitely do. That is all.
Hawks get: Lu Dort, Walker Kessler
Thunder get: DeAndre Hunter, Lauri Markkanen, 2028 Round 1 pick (via Atlanta – top 5 protected)
Jazz get: Clint Capela, Cason Wallace, 2026 Round 2 pick (via Memphis), 2025 Round 1 pick (via Miami, top-15 protected), 2025 Round 1 pick (via Philly, top-7 protected), 2026 Round 1 pick (via Los Angeles Clippers, unprotected), 2028 Round 1 pick (via Dallas, unprotected), 2028 Round 1 pick-swap with OKC
For Utah, getting five first-round picks and a young guard who could grow into a part of the team’s long-term future is a great return for Markkanen. It beats the Mikal Bridges package and gives Utah the assets to add star talent or move up in the draft for players they covet. They also take on Clint Capela’s salary in this deal, but it is an expiring contract with minimal implications on their future. Capela would fit under the category of a short-term fix. He is a more developed version of Walker Kessler, their incumbent center who is reportedly avaliable for trade per Yahoo Sports’ Jake Fischer.
“Rival teams believe Utah is willing to engage in trade talks that would part ways with Jazz second-year center Walker Kessler.”
Oklahoma City gets the final piece to complete a lineup practically free of limitations. Around a true superstar in SGA, every player in that lineup is a three-point threat, plays average to elite defense and occupies complementary roles on the court around SGA’s scoring gravity. Since they have a decent bit of salary cap space this off-season (around $35 million), they can take on Hunter’s contract alongside Markkanen and put Hunter in a high-level sixth man role. His shooting and perimeter defense would be incredibly useful in bench lineups and his contract can be used for salary-matching purposes in other trades. Their window is firmly open – having a player who can easily scale up to starting minutes or down to role player minutes is a luxury that proves its worth in the playoffs.
Atlanta’s motivation for this move is threefold. In the short-term, they benefit from getting rid of salaries that did not fit on their team. Since Atlanta is not ready to contend, it is much harder to stomach Hunter’s contract as a sixth man. He likely will not start over Risacher or Johnson. In the long-term, they give themselves insurance for Dyson Daniels. Daniels, who they acquired, is a wing with some playmaking skills and legitimate defensive upside. However, his offensive skillset is still a work in progress. In the event that Daniels is more of a role player than a future starter, Dort can take that starting position and assume the toughest defensive assignments. Young’s lack of defensive tools put him at a disadvantage against bigger guards or forwards who switch onto him. Dort takes some of that pressure off of Young and completes the Hawks’ idealized lineup: their star point guard surrounded by long defenders who can shoot. A lineup of Young-Dort-Johnson-Risacher-Okongwu has serious defensive upside and is firmly in the mix for a playoff spot next season.
The Hawks would also be buying very low on Kessler. For the price of a second-round pick, they find out whether he’s a rotation body or capable of being the center of the future. Okongwu can be played as a forward and shows some promise as a shooter. Last year, he shot 68.0% from inside the arc on decent volume, which is an above-average mark. He has also showed signs of a midrange shot in seasons past. Kessler has been a great rim protector thus far and should continue to be one in the Hawks’ lineup. His offensive game is limited, but he can serve as a rim-runner for Young in the way that Capela often did. Having both Kessler and Okongwu should give, at bare minimum, a repeat of what Atlanta had last year at the center position for a significantly cheaper cost.
While I do not know if the Hawks would want to part with another first or if the Thunder would really be interested in moving Dort for anything less than a star player in return, the ability to get back another first to preserve their surplus would undoubtedly be interesting. Ultimately, I do not think the Markkanen deal gets done with Atlanta’s involvement, but I would be surprised if Markkanen was not acquired by the Thunder this off-season. Atlanta should be trying to get involved in that deal in order to improve their future outlook.
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Publish date : 2024-06-30 08:00:01
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